SG REITs — End-of-Day Verdict
DISPOSE 1 / ACQUIRE 0 - RE-ISSUE the N2IU 50% trim ( @ ~1.27) at the 08-14 open for the FOURTH time after three consecutive executor outages dropped the 08-07, 08-11 and 08-12 cards; the case strengthened materially tonight - the operative stop broke on a settled close for the first time. Buy side NO ACTION and the buy pool is EMPTY: seven of eight names printed AVOID or NO TRADE, four made fresh lows, and every name in the book now carries a negative model 12-week view except C38U (+3.3%). C38U's re-arm did NOT fire - the PullbackBuy_VWAP family repeated but conviction collapsed and the order flipped to a buy-stop ABOVE the close.
Recommendations
0 to acquire · 1 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| N2IU | Mapletree PanAsia Com Tr | 1.27 | SELL 50% | 1.27 | 1.25 | 1.27 (-0.2%) | 1.26 (-0.8%) | 1.20 (-5.5%) | Cutting our Mapletree Pan Asia position in half. The unit has now closed below the line we set for it, the fifth straight close under its long-term trend average, and the model's three-month view has fallen for a fourth week running to a level below its own 52-week low. There is no bad news here - the trust's 18 gateway-market properties are unchanged and it paid us a 2-cent distribution last week - this is a rate-sensitive holding drifting the wrong way, so we take half off and keep half on a tighter line. OPERATIONAL: L2 complete for the first time on settled closes - TRIGGER (A) decisively broken (close 1.27 vs operative pre-trim stop 1.280, -0.78%, 0.36 ATR; three prior sessions closed exactly on 1.28) AND TRIGGER (B) fires a fourth time on a fifth consecutive close below EMA200 (1.27 vs 1.29851, -2.20%, 0.79 ATR) with Target_12Week 1.20 < close (-5.51%, deteriorated 1.24->1.23->1.22->1.20, now below the 1.2020 52W low). EMA5/10/20/50/100 all stacked above price; RSI 43.4->40.4; Consolidation_Bearish. REIT-1 SATISFIED ON ITS SECOND CLAUSE (decisive stop-break + neg 12wk), NOT on the RallySell label - the label is explicitly not the basis. Action price 1.27 is the live Entry_Price on the anchor row (= settled close), repriced down from the 08-12 reference of 1.28; no carried-forward level. Board lot: 145,100 x 50% = (, 49.97%). Gross ~S; realized -Sor -Snet of the Sdistribution on those units. Residual -> stop HELD at 1.25, deliberately NOT re-based to the mechanical 1.2425 (1.0x ATR below close) - the pre-commitment wins; stops do not get walked down because price fell. Defined risk S = 0.073% of book. NOT escalated past 50%: residual trigger (A') (settled close < 1.25) has not fired, and MoS_FV -0.25 is far too shallow to bump a tier (needs <= -3). FOURTH ISSUE OF THIS CARD - the 08-07, 08-11 and 08-12 cards all passed their execution dates unfilled because sgreit_executor_state.json last_run_date is 2026-08-03, seven trading days stale; the three opens printed 1.29/1.29/1.28, all fillable, ~Sforgone. MECHANICAL L3 violation, systemic finding 2, CRITICAL/THIRD CONSECUTIVE. PROFIT_ARMED is a FALSE POSITIVE for the 8th consecutive session (Gain_ATR -2.18, T12_Progress 105.83% only because Target_12Week keeps falling below the 1.33 cost) and is NOT the basis - systemic finding 1. Valuation barred from originating (CLAUDE.md section 9 / REIT-2 / SGR-1); recorded, not applied. ADR-0020 moot (peak_stop 1.30, erosion 1.54%). 12wk 1.20 exceeds the DCF anchor 1.02017 - annotated, not applied per SGR-1. Reprice if the 08-14 open gaps outside 1.251-1.289; the deferred US PPI S-REIT reaction lands on that open. Residual triggers: (A') settled close < 1.25 -> exit remaining 72,600 at next open; (B') any SELL-REDUCE label -> act; (C') settled close back above EMA200 ~1.299 with Target_12Week >= close -> clause void, revert to HOLD. · news |
| A17U | CapitaLand Ascendas REIT | 2.44 | WATCH | 2.44 | 2.49 | n/a | 2.43 (-0.4%) | 2.30 (-5.7%) | No action on CapitaLand Ascendas. Today's 2% fall is almost entirely the scheduled 7.482-cent distribution coming out of the price - the units actually held up about a point better than the payout alone implied. The model has misread that mechanical drop as a fresh downtrend. We are not buying, but the reason is the negative three-month view, not today's dividend gap. OPERATIONAL: flipped NO TRADE 0 -> AVOID 53 / RallySell_BearTrend on its ex-distribution date (7.482c, ~3.0% of the 2.49 prior close); actual close 2.44 = -2.0%, so the unit outperformed the mechanical mark-down by ~1pt. The signal path consumes raw unadjusted closes and has manufactured a bearish label out of a dividend - systemic finding 8 (NEW): use dividend-adjusted closes on the indicator path, or suppress/flag signal transitions on known ex-dates (the horizon file already carries the dates and quanta). Conclusion unchanged on independent grounds: Target_12Week 2.30 vs close 2.44 (-5.7%) fails SGR-2.. Valuation nulled per SGR-1. |
| M44U | Mapletree Logistics Trust | 1.18 | WATCH | 1.18 | 1.18 | n/a | n/a | 1.13 (-4.2%) | No action on Mapletree Logistics - unowned, making fresh lows, with a three-month view about 4% below today's price. The buy signal this book declined on 4 August is now more than 4% lower, and each session makes that decision look better. OPERATIONAL: now FailedBreakout_Down_20D (the REIT-1-reliable BEARISH family) at a fresh low of 1.18. SGR-3 graded correct a sixth time: the 08-04 BUY 71 at 1.23 that was declined now trades -4.07%, worsening each session (-2.44% -> -3.25% -> -4.07%). Target_12Week 1.13 < 1.18 (-4.2%) fails SGR-2 independently.. Valuation NA -> gate off. |
| ME8U | Mapletree Industrial Trust | 1.91 | WATCH | — | — | n/a | n/a | 1.83 | No action on Mapletree Industrial. The model has no tradable read on it for a second day and expects it about 4% lower in three months. OPERATIONAL: second consecutive NO TRADE 0 (Consensus conflict + low conviction) after a fortnight of whipsaws (BUY 62 -> NT 0 -> W 60 -> W 46 -> NT 0 -> NT 0) - the clearest live vindication of SGR-3. Target_12Week 1.83 < close 1.91 (-4.2%) fails SGR-2. RSI 47.2, still below the midline.. Valuation nulled per SGR-1 (MoS_FV -17.43 despite Quality_Pass True). |
| BUOU | FRASER L&C TRUST | 0.96 | WATCH | — | — | n/a | n/a | 0.92 | No action on Frasers Logistics & Commercial. The valuation screen called it the book's first-ever bargain two days ago; it has fallen on both sessions since, made a new low today, and the model still has no tradable read on it. That is the pattern this book has learned not to buy. OPERATIONAL: second consecutive NO TRADE 0; new low at 0.965; Target_12Week 0.92 < close (-4.7%, deteriorating from -3.1%); RSI broke down from four flat sessions at 43.8 to 40.4. The Bargain=True flag is now two sessions old with the name down on both - early evidence FOR SGR-1's core claim, not against it. Label remains internally contradictory (FAIR_VALUE/Bargain=True alongside MoS_FV -6.07 and FV_per_share 0.137 vs a 0.965 price) - systemic finding 4. SGR-1 nulls the valuation input, so no operational effect.. |
| J69U | FRASERS CPT TR | 2.21 | WATCH | 2.21 | 2.21 | n/a | n/a | 2.02 (-8.6%) | No action on Frasers Centrepoint - we do not own it and the model is bearish for a third straight session, with a three-month view roughly 9% below today's price, the weakest in the book. Long-only, so nothing to do, but it is the sleeve's clearest negative read. OPERATIONAL: third consecutive high-conviction bearish print -> 60), family back to FailedBreakout_Down_20D - the one bearish family REIT-1 says to trust. Target_12Week 2.02 vs close 2.21 (-8.6%).. Valuation NA -> gate off. |
| HMN | CAPITALAND and ASCOTT STAPLE U | 0.86 | WATCH | 0.86 | 0.88 | n/a | 0.81 (-5.8%) | 0.78 (-9.3%) | No action on CapitaLand Ascott - unowned, and the sideways floor it had been holding gave way today on rising volume, with a three-month view nearly 9% lower. It is still the only name the quality screen passes, which is exactly why this book does not let that screen drive buying. OPERATIONAL: BreakdownDown_20D broke 0.86 -> 0.855 on volume re-expanding to 9.78M (from 4.50M); RSI 35.4; Regime flipped to Trending; conviction. Target_12Week 0.78 vs close 0.855 (-8.8%). Standing anti-correlation evidence for SGR-1 (Quality_Pass True, worst chart in the book).. |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
5 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.043 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
48 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.