SG REITs — End-of-Day Verdict
DISPOSE 1 / ACQUIRE 0 - RE-ISSUE the N2IU 50% trim ( @ ~1.28) at the 08-17 open for the FIFTH time after four consecutive executor outages dropped the 08-07, 08-11, 08-12 and 08-13 cards. The case got CLEANER tonight, not weaker: the label is now FailedBreakout_Down_20D at conviction 62 - REIT-1's own trusted bearish family - so the card no longer leans only on the stop-break clause, and trigger (B) fires a fifth time on a sixth consecutive close below EMA200 with a -6.25% 12-week view. Buy side NO ACTION and the buy pool is EMPTY for a second consecutive session: seven of eight names printed AVOID or NO TRADE, and every name in the book carries a negative model 12-week view except C38U (+2.06%, fading from +3.3%). C38U's re-arm did NOT fire - the PullbackBuy_VWAP family has now printed three consecutive sessions (SGR-3's confirming leg satisfied) but conviction is only 39 and the order is a buy-stop at 2.48, +1.02 ATR ABOVE the 2.43 close - the deepest chase it has printed.
Recommendations
0 to acquire · 1 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| N2IU | Mapletree PanAsia Com Tr | 1.28 | SELL 50% | 1.28 | 1.25 | n/a | n/a | 1.20 (-6.3%) | Half the Mapletree PanAsia position comes off at Monday's open. The trust has now closed below its 200-day trend line for six straight sessions, the model's 12-week view sits 6.3% BELOW the current price, and tonight the signal engine printed FailedBreakout_Down_20D at conviction 62 - the one bearish pattern that has historically been reliable on Singapore REITs, as opposed to the rally-sell label that carried this case for the past week. Nothing is wrong with the underlying trust: MPACT's 18 gateway-market properties are unchanged and it paid its 2-cent distribution on 6 August, which is exactly why this is a half-sale and not an exit. This is de-risking a position that has stopped working, not a call that the business has broken. || OPERATIONAL: FIFTH ISSUE of the same card - the 08-07/08-11/08-12/08-13 cards all passed unfilled because decisions/sgreit_executor_state.json last_run_date is 2026-08-03, EIGHT trading days stale, while input/sgreitportfolio.json still reads; opens printed 1.29/1.29/1.28/1.27, all inside band and fillable. Today's miss happened to GAIN S (open 1.27, close 1.28) - noise, not vindication; a control whose sign is random is not a control. Systemic finding 2, CRITICAL / FOURTH CONSECUTIVE. BASIS (L2 + REIT-1 first clause): trigger (A) broke decisively on the 08-13 settled close (1.27 vs operative pre-trim stop 1.280, 0.36 ATR below) and is a COMPLETED trigger - tonight's 1.28 is back ON the line, not above it, and only (C') voids the ladder. Trigger (B) fires a FIFTH time on a SIXTH consecutive close below EMA200 (1.28 vs 1.29851, -1.42%, 0.71 ATR) with Target_12Week 1.20 < close (-6.25%). REIT-1's FIRST clause is satisfied for the first time - the label IS FailedBreakout_Down_20D (conv 62, up from 41), so the card no longer leans only on the stop-break clause. NOT escalated past 50%: residual trigger (A') (settled close < 1.25) has not fired and MoS_FV -0.25 is far too shallow to bump a tier. PROVENANCE: action price 1.28 is the LIVE Entry_Price on the anchor row (= settled close), repriced UP from the 08-13 reference of 1.27; no carried-forward level. ESTIMATES: 4wk and 1wk are n/a - FailedBreakout_Down_20D prints no Target_Price (systemic finding 7); model next-session envelope 1.2537-1.3346. PROFIT_ARMED is a FALSE POSITIVE for the NINTH consecutive session (Gain_ATR -1.92 on a -2.26% total-return position) and is explicitly NOT the basis - systemic finding 1. ADR-0020 moot (peak_stop 1.30, erosion 1.54%). Valuation barred from originating (CLAUDE.md s9 / REIT-2 / SGR-1). RESIDUAL : stop HELD at 1.25, deliberately not re-based up on a one-cent bounce; defined risk S = 0.109% of book. RESIDUAL TRIGGERS: (A') settled close < 1.25 -> exit the remaining 72,600 at the next open; (B') any SELL-REDUCE / STRONG SELL-REDUCE label -> act on the label; (C') settled close back ABOVE EMA200 (~1.2985) with Target_12Week >= close -> trend-exit clause void, revert to HOLD and re-arm the add-back (a gap-up open alone does not void it). ADD-BACK RE-ARM: a fresh PullbackBuy_VWAP or other L1-favoured print at conv >= 65 with Target_12Week >= close, at the THEN-LIVE Entry_Price - never a carried-forward level. Reprice if the 08-17 open gaps >1.5% (outside 1.261-1.299); that open carries UOB + OCBC ex-div, SG NODX, China activity data and the deferred US retail-sales reaction. · news |
| A17U | CapitaLand Ascendas REIT | 2.44 | NO-OP | 2.44 | — | n/a | n/a | 2.28 (-6.6%) | No action - not held. Conviction firmed on RallySell_BearTrend, but read it against systemic finding 8: yesterday's bearish flip was manufactured by the 7.482c ex-distribution, and today the unit held 2.44 FLAT (O2.45/H2.45/L2.43) with no follow-through selling - the engine is still digesting a dividend. Conclusion unchanged on independent grounds: Target_12Week 2.28 vs close 2.44 = -6.56% fails SGR-2. Long-only and, so nothing to act on. |
| M44U | Mapletree Logistics Trust | 1.17 | NO-OP | 1.17 | — | n/a | n/a | 1.10 (-6.0%) | No action - not held. SGR-3 graded correct a seventh time. Fresh low 1.17, RSI 40.7 -> 37.3 (weakest in the book), Target_12Week 1.10 = -5.98% and deteriorating from -4.2%, Pillar_Consensus Consolidation_Bearish for a second session. The 08-04 BUY 71 at 1.23 this book declined now trades -4.88%, worse every single session (-2.44% -> -3.25% -> -4.07% -> -4.88%). Valuation NA, gate off. |
| ME8U | Mapletree Industrial Trust | 1.91 | NO-OP | — | — | n/a | n/a | 1.82 | No action - not held. Third consecutive NO TRADE 0 (Consensus conflict + low conviction). Close pinned at 1.91 for a third session, Target_12Week 1.82 = -4.71% and deteriorating, RSI 47.2 still below the midline. val_adj nulled by SGR-1 (QP True but the EPV screen is non-informative on trusts). |
| BUOU | FRASER L&C TRUST | 0.96 | NO-OP | — | — | n/a | n/a | 0.92 | No action - not held. Third consecutive NO TRADE 0; close flat at the 0.965 low, Target_12Week 0.92 = -4.66%, RSI 40.4, volume dried to 5.55M from 7.75M. The book's first-ever Bargain=True is now three sessions old and the name has not risen on any of them - early evidence for SGR-1's core claim, not against it. Row still internally contradictory (FAIR_VALUE + Bargain True while MoS_FV -6.07) - systemic finding 4. |
| J69U | FRASERS CPT TR | 2.20 | NO-OP | 2.20 | — | n/a | n/a | 2.00 (-9.1%) | No action - not held. Fourth consecutive high-conviction bearish print. Target_12Week 2.00 vs close 2.20 = -9.09%, the WORST forward view in the book, and it has now broken the round number. Volume re-expanded to 7.55M from 3.91M on a down close - distribution. Long-only and. Valuation NA, gate off. |
| HMN | CAPITALAND and ASCOTT STAPLE U | 0.86 | NO-OP | 0.85 | — | n/a | n/a | 0.78 (-8.8%) | No action - not held. BreakdownDown_20D, fifth consecutive session; close flat at 0.855, Target_12Week 0.78 = -8.77%, RSI 35.4. Still the fair-value screen's quality-passing name (QP True, MoS only -0.80) and still the second-worst chart in the book - standing anti-correlation evidence for SGR-1. |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
6 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.043 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
48 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.