SG REITs — End-of-Day Verdict
DISPOSE 1 / ACQUIRE 0 - RE-ISSUE the N2IU 50% trim ( @ ~1.27) at the 08-18 open for the SIXTH time after five consecutive executor outages dropped the 08-07, 08-11, 08-12, 08-13 and 08-14 cards; today's outage COST Sand the cumulative gap is now ~SThe tape re-fired the card independently tonight: a second decisive close below the 1.280 operative stop in three sessions, a seventh straight close below EMA200 with the margin re-widening to -2.20%, and a 12-week view that resumed deteriorating to 1.18 (-7.09%), now below the 52-week low. Buy side NO ACTION and the buy pool is EMPTY for a THIRD consecutive session: seven of eight names printed AVOID or NO TRADE, twelve-week views deteriorated on six of eight, and EVERY name in the book now carries a negative model 12-week view when measured against its own actionable price - including C38U, whose -1.21% against its 2.48 entry finally fails SGR-2 after four sessions of passing on the close basis, with a Sex-dividend on 08-19 consuming the last of the close-basis cushion. TWO names now print REIT-1's trusted FailedBreakout_Down_20D family (N2IU 44, HMN 71) where Friday had one.
Recommendations
0 to acquire · 1 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N2IU | Mapletree PanAsia Com Tr | 1.27 | SELL 50% | 1.27 | 1.25 | n/a | n/a | 1.18 (-7.1%) | Trim half the MPACT stake into continued weakness. The trust closed S, decisively below the Srisk line for the second time in three sessions and its seventh straight close under the 200-day average (S), while the model's 12-week view fell again to S - 7.1% below the current price and now below the 52-week low. The signal is FailedBreakout_Down_20D, the one bearish pattern that has proved reliable on this REIT book. Valuation is neutral-to-irrelevant here (margin of safety only -0.25, far too shallow to matter) and there is no adverse news - the only item is the Sdistribution already earned on 6 Aug - which is precisely why this is a half-trim rather than an exit: a defensive trust that keeps paying while drifting deserves a smaller position, not a closed one. Selling ahead of the 19 Aug FOMC minutes, whose S-REIT reaction lands 20 Aug with a +/-2.5% band, is the right side of a known event. OPERATIONAL: sixth issue of the same card - the 08-07, 08-11, 08-12, 08-13 and 08-14 cards all lapsed unfilled because the auto-executor has not run since 2026-08-03 (nine trading days stale); today's miss cost Sand the cumulative gap is ~SExit basis is L2 (decisive stop-break + negative 12wk) plus REIT-1's trusted family; PROFIT_ARMED on this row is a FALSE POSITIVE for the tenth session (Gain_ATR -2.42) and is NOT the basis. Action price 1.27 is the live anchor Entry_Price, repriced down from 1.28 - no carried-forward level. 72,550 rounded down to the 100-share SG board lot = 72,500. Reprice if the open gaps outside 1.251-1.289. Residual 72,600 keeps stop 1.25; (A') settled close below 1.25 exits the remainder, (C') settled close above EMA200 ~1.2985 with 12wk >= close voids the ladder. Estimates 1wk/4wk n/a: FailedBreakout_Down_20D prints no Target_Price (systemic finding 7). · news |
| HMN | CAPITALAND and ASCOTT STAPLE U | 0.86 | WATCH | 0.86 | 0.86 | n/a | n/a | 0.78 (-9.3%) | Not held, long-only, nothing to act on. Noted because the direction matters: conviction jumped, the book's highest, and the family flipped to FailedBreakout_Down_20D - the trusted bearish family - on a firm +0.58% close at 0.86 with volume up to 11.33M. 12-week view 0.78 (-9.30%), RSI 40.9, Stop_Price prints 0.86 = the close, no cushion. Second name in the book on that family tonight; that is the sleeve's tell. |
| A17U | CapitaLand Ascendas REIT | 2.44 | WATCH | 2.44 | 2.47 | n/a | 2.43 (-0.4%) | 2.26 (-7.4%) | Not held, long-only, nothing to act on. Third consecutive session of firming RallySell_BearTrend conviction -> 69) while the price sat flat at 2.44 throughout - systemic finding 8 confirmed a second time: the 08-13 flip was manufactured by the 7.482c ex-distribution and the label keeps strengthening on an information-free mark-down. Independent grounds unchanged: Target_12Week 2.26 vs 2.44 (-7.38%) fails SGR-2. |
| J69U | FRASERS CPT TR | 2.19 | WATCH | 2.19 | 2.15 | n/a | 2.23 (+1.8%) | 1.97 (-10.0%) | Not held, long-only, nothing to act on. Four sessions of high-conviction bearish prints ended with ReversalUp_Oversold 41 at RSI 34.1 - the lowest in the book - on volume that halved to 3.95M: a low-participation oversold-bounce label, not demand. Target_12Week 1.97 vs 2.19 = -10.05%, the worst forward view in the book. Fails the floor by 24 and fails SGR-2 outright. Trend_Score 62 is the book's highest - worth watching only if RSI recovers with volume. |
| M44U | Mapletree Logistics Trust | 1.17 | WATCH | 1.17 | 1.20 | n/a | 1.16 (-0.9%) | 1.09 (-6.8%) | Not held, long-only, nothing to act on. Flat at the 1.17 low, RSI 37.3, Target_12Week 1.09 (-6.84%, deteriorating), Stop_Price 1.20 above the close. SGR-3 grades correct an eighth time: the 08-04 BUY 71 at 1.23 this book declined now trades -4.88% with no up session since. |
| ME8U | Mapletree Industrial Trust | 1.91 | WATCH | — | — | n/a | n/a | 1.82 | Not held, long-only, nothing to act on. Fourth consecutive NO TRADE 0 ('Consensus conflict + low conviction'); close pinned at 1.91 for a fourth session, Target_12Week 1.82 (-4.71%), RSI 47.2 - the book's least-bad momentum reading and still not actionable. |
| BUOU | FRASER L&C TRUST | 0.96 | WATCH | — | — | n/a | n/a | 0.91 | Not held, long-only, nothing to act on. Fourth consecutive NO TRADE 0; close slipped to a fresh low 0.96, Target_12Week 0.91 (-5.21%), RSI 40.4 -> 37.0. The book's first-ever Bargain=True is four sessions old and the name has fallen on the net of them - standing anti-correlation evidence for SGR-1, and the row remains internally contradictory (FAIR_VALUE + Bargain True against MoS -6.07; systemic finding 4). |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
7 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.043 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
48 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.