SG REITs — End-of-Day Verdict
DISPOSE 1 / ACQUIRE 0 - RE-ISSUE the N2IU 50% trim ( @ ~1.26) at the 08-19 open for the SEVENTH time after six consecutive executor outages dropped the 08-07, 08-11, 08-12, 08-13, 08-14 and 08-17 cards; today's outage COST Sand the cumulative gap is now ~SThe tape re-fired the card independently tonight: a THIRD break of the 1.280 operative stop and the DEEPEST of the three (-0.84 ATR), an EIGHTH straight close below EMA200 with the margin re-widening to -2.94%/-1.60 ATR, and a 12-week view that resumed AND accelerated lower to 1.16 (-7.94%), now 3.50% BELOW the 52-week low. Held at 50% and not escalated: residual trigger (A') needed a settled close below 1.25 and the low tagged EXACTLY 1.25 before closing 1.26 - L4 says the settled close governs. Buy side NO ACTION and the buy pool is EMPTY for a FOURTH consecutive session, tonight decisively worse rather than merely quiet: ZERO bullish actionable labels, the book's two highest convictions (J69U 81, A17U 70) are both BEARISH prints, all eight names carry a negative model 12-week view against their own actionable price and all eight deteriorated, and three names printed multi-session-high volume on down closes (C38U 35.54M, M44U 26.76M, J69U 10.56M) - distribution, not accumulation, one session before the FOMC minutes. C38U's four-session PullbackBuy_VWAP sequence DIED at NO TRADE 0, closing 2.39, now 3.6% BELOW the 2.48 entry it was chasing yesterday - the decision never to queue that chase is graded correct.
Recommendations
0 to acquire · 1 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| N2IU | Mapletree PanAsia Com Tr | 1.26 | SELL 50% | 1.26 | 1.25 | 1.26 (+0.0%) | 1.26 (+0.0%) | 1.16 (-7.9%) | MPACT's downtrend is now decisive rather than drifting: the trust closed 1.26, a clear break of the 1.280 risk line we have been defending, its eighth straight close below the 200-day average, and the model's twelve-week view has fallen to 1.16 - nearly 8% below today's price and now BELOW the 52-week low. No adverse news at the trust itself (the gateway-market portfolio is unchanged and the SAugust distribution is already banked as a receivable), so this reads as rate-complex de-risking one session before the FOMC minutes rather than a broken business - which is exactly why we take half off and keep half, rather than exiting. Selling 50% releases ~Sof the book's only exposure back to cash ahead of a high-confidence +/-2.5% event band on the whole Singapore REIT sleeve. OPERATIONAL: pre-committed 08-06 ladder, clause (A) decisive stop-break (-1.56% / -0.84 ATR, the deepest of three breaks) AND clause (B) 8th close below EMA200 (-2.94% / -1.60 ATR) with negative 12wk - L2 / REIT-2 basis, each firing independently. REIT-1's 'never exit a REIT on RallySell_BearTrend alone' is NOT engaged: its own decisive-stop-break + neg-12wk escape clause is satisfied on both legs. Residual trigger (A') settled close < 1.25 did NOT fire - the low tagged exactly 1.25 and the close held 1.26 (+0.42 ATR); L4 says the settled close governs, so the portion stays 50%, not more. PROFIT_ARMED is a FALSE POSITIVE for the 11th session (Gain_ATR -2.94, T12_Progress 108.62% on a position down 5.26%) and is NOT the basis - systemic finding 1. Valuation (MoS -0.25, val_adj -1) recorded but barred from originating per CLAUDE.md section 9 / REIT-2 / SGR-1, and far too shallow to bump a tier. Action price 1.26 is the LIVE anchor Entry_Price, repriced DOWN from the 08-17 reference of 1.27; reprice if the open gaps outside 1.241-1.279. SEVENTH ISSUE of this card - six prior cards (08-07, 08-11, 08-12, 08-13, 08-14, 08-17) all lapsed unfilled because the Auto-Executor has been stale since 2026-08-03; today's miss cost Sand the cumulative gap is ~SResidual keeps the 1.25 stop (defined risk S = 0.036% of book); re-arm the add-back only on a fresh PullbackBuy_VWAP at conv >= 65 with Target_12Week >= close, at the THEN-LIVE Entry_Price. · news |
| J69U | FRASERS CPT TR | 2.18 | WATCH | 2.19 | 2.27 | n/a | 2.03 (-7.3%) | 1.95 (-11.0%) | Not held, long-only, nothing to act on. Yesterday's ReversalUp_Oversold 41 lasted exactly one session before flipping to BreakdownDown_20D conv 81 [STRONG SELL] - the book's highest conviction, pointing DOWN - on 2.7x volume (3.95M -> 10.56M) and a fresh low 2.17. SGR-3 vindicated again: the low-participation oversold bounce was mechanics, not demand. Target_12Week 1.95 vs entry 2.19 = -10.96%, the worst forward view in the book. SGR-2 blocks outright. |
| A17U | CapitaLand Ascendas REIT | 2.43 | WATCH | 2.43 | 2.45 | n/a | 2.43 (+0.0%) | 2.24 (-7.8%) | Not held, long-only, nothing to act on. RallySell_BearTrend [SELL] strengthening -> across four sessions while the price moved one cent in total - systemic finding 8's monotonic conviction ramp off the 08-13 7.482c ex-distribution mark-down. Target_12Week 2.24 (-7.82%), Stop_Price 2.45 above the close. SGR-2 blocks; valuation nulled for buys by SGR-1. |
| HMN | CAPITALAND and ASCOTT STAPLE U | 0.86 | WATCH | 0.86 | 0.86 | n/a | n/a | 0.77 (-10.5%) | Not held, long-only, nothing to act on. Second session of FailedBreakout_Down_20D - REIT-1's trusted bearish family - with conviction giving back as the name handed back yesterday's half-cent (0.86 -> 0.855). Target_12Week 0.77 = -10.47% against the 0.86 entry, Stop_Price 0.86 above the close, Exit_Strategy immediate. Target_Price is BLANK on this row (systemic finding 7), so 4wk/1wk estimates are n/a rather than synthesized. Tracked as the sleeve's downside tell, not as a candidate. |
| C38U | CapitaLand Integrated Comm Tr | 2.39 | WATCH | — | — | n/a | n/a | 2.36 | Not held, long-only, nothing to act on. The four-session PullbackBuy_VWAP sequence is DEAD: WATCH -> 51 collapsed to NO TRADE 0 ('Consensus conflict + low conviction') on the book's heaviest volume (35.54M), closing 2.39 - now 3.6% BELOW the 2.48 entry it was chasing by +1.06 ATR only yesterday. Target_12Week fell 2.45 -> 2.36. The re-arm never triggered and declining to queue at 2.48/2.51 or any carried-forward level was correct. Goes ex-div Son 08-19 (-0.84% mechanical); expect a spurious conviction change - systemic finding 8. RE-ARM UNCHANGED: a PullbackBuy_VWAP print at conv >= 65 with Target_12Week >= the THEN-LIVE Entry_Price, queued at that then-live Entry_Price - never a carried-forward level, never a buy-stop into the high. |
| M44U | Mapletree Logistics Trust | 1.17 | WATCH | 1.17 | 1.19 | n/a | 1.16 (-0.9%) | 1.08 (-7.7%) | Not held, long-only, nothing to act on. Fourth consecutive RallySell_BearTrend; the close pinned at 1.17 but on 26.76M units - 2.6x yesterday - with the low breaking to 1.15. Target_12Week 1.08 (-7.69%, deteriorating), Stop_Price 1.19 above the close. SGR-3 grades correct a ninth time: the 08-04 BUY 71 at 1.23 this book declined now trades -4.88%. |
| BUOU | FRASER L&C TRUST | 0.95 | WATCH | — | — | n/a | n/a | 0.89 | Not held, long-only, nothing to act on. Fifth consecutive NO TRADE 0; the close broke to a fresh low 0.95 on 13.06M with RSI 37.0 -> 31.3, the lowest reading in the book. Target_12Week 0.89 (-6.32%). The book's only-ever Bargain=True is five sessions old and the name has fallen on every one of them - standing anti-correlation evidence for SGR-1 - on a row that still contradicts itself (FAIR_VALUE + Bargain True against MoS -6.07; systemic finding 4). |
| ME8U | Mapletree Industrial Trust | 1.91 | WATCH | — | — | n/a | n/a | 1.81 | Not held, long-only, nothing to act on. Fifth consecutive NO TRADE 0 ('Consensus conflict + low conviction'); close pinned at 1.91 for a fifth session with RSI frozen at 47.156 to twelve decimal places - the book's least-bad momentum reading and still not actionable. Target_12Week 1.81 (-5.24%). |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
8 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.043 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
48 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.