Recommendations
0 to acquire · 1 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| N2IU | Mapletree PanAsia Com Tr | 1.27 | SELL 50% | 1.27 | 1.25 | 1.24 (-2.4%) | n/a | 1.17 (-7.9%) | Take half off Singapore's Mapletree PanAsia Commercial Trust at S, at Monday's open. The two exit tests have now fired together for three straight sessions: the shares have settled through the Srisk line on 26, 27 and 28 August, and have closed beneath their 200-day average fifteen sessions running, with the model's twelve-week view sliding for a third consecutive session to 7.9% below price. The character of the decline has changed in a way that matters - volume has collapsed to under half the recent run rate, so this is a name that has stopped attracting buyers rather than one being actively sold. Valuation is not the reason: a same-day fair-value refresh leaves the discount far too shallow to matter, and this book treats the intrinsic-value screen as unreliable on distribution-paying REITs. Sector news now leans the same way for the first time in this sequence - long-dated Treasury yields are pushing higher on energy-driven inflation, and a Fed chair who has abandoned forward guidance delivers his first Jackson Hole keynote tonight, with Singapore pricing the reaction in Monday's session. Selling half rather than exiting is deliberate: the engine's bearish conviction is only 46 and actually ticked up, so this is about refusing to carry a full position through the widest scheduled event on the calendar, not a directional bet. OPERATIONAL: THIRTEENTH re-issue of the same card; the prior twelve all lapsed unfilled - executor dead since 2026-08-03 (18 trading days) and the 08-27 Asia scan batch missing entirely (systemic findings 1-2). Action price 1.27 is the LIVE Entry_Price, not a carried-forward level - the name has settled at exactly 1.27 three sessions running so provenance and the prior card coincide. BOTH clauses fire: clause (A) decisive stop-break (close 1.27 = 0.456 ATR through the 1.280 pre-trim stop, third consecutive) AND clause (B) 15th consecutive close below EMA200 1.29551 at -1.162 ATR / -1.97% with Target_12Week 1.17 < close (L2 / REIT-2 / CLAUDE.md section 9). Adjusted conviction 45 sits below the 65 floor; that floor governs ACQUISITIONS and conviction-gated entries - this sell is originated by the section 9 named valid exit, a price-and-forward-view test, not a conviction test. Scorecard cell FailedBreakout_Down_20D|sell reverted - (n=7, hit_1w 0.333 -> 0.500) and was applied; treat with suspicion, that n is manufactured from re-issues of this one never-executed card (systemic finding 3). 1wk 1.240 derived at f=0.30 per L5 (calib_1w -0.043 degenerate); 4wk n/a - this signal family emits no Target_Price (systemic finding 5); 12wk 1.17 sits +14.7% above the 1.02017 DCF anchor - annotated, not applied, per SGR-1. HORIZON: Warsh S-REIT leg +/-3.0% TIGHTEN-TRAIL prices Mon 08-31, the same session this fills; its downside leg (1.232) sits BELOW the residual stop 1.25, so clause (A') is reachable in one session. Residual 72,600 on stop 1.25, deliberately NOT tightened into a two-sided event; triggers (A') settled close below 1.25 -> exit residual [cushion +0.911 ATR, an unchanged 2 cents in cash terms], (B') any SELL-REDUCE label -> act, (C') settled close back above EMA200 ~1.2955 with Target_12Week >= close -> ladder VOID, revert to HOLD. Reprice if Monday's open gaps outside 1.2510-1.2891. · news |
| — | FRASERS CPT TR | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | The engine's strongest reading since this book began - conviction 84 - and it points straight down: the signal hardened from a failed breakout into an outright breakdown, momentum fell to its most oversold of the sleeve, and the shares sit 3.6% below their 200-day average with the twelve-week view 12% under price, the widest negative gap in the book. Not owned, and a long-only book cannot use a short setup. Nothing to do. OPERATIONAL: signal escalated FailedBreakout_Down_20D conv 43 -> BreakdownDown_20D conv 84, the book's highest-ever print in either direction; RSI 36.78 -> 32.12; close 2.18 -> 2.16 on 11.69M; full short structure emitted (2.17/2.25/2.01), unusable long-only, -> no-op. Val_Signal NA (no EPV/share) = SGR-1(b) silent-abstention, val_adj 0. ROW ANOMALY, systemic finding 7: Pillar_Consensus prints Consolidation_Bullish with Regime Trending and Trend_Score 65 - a bullish consensus label on the strongest bearish signal the book has produced. |
| — | CapitaLand Ascendas REIT | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | Slipped again on very heavy volume and now sits 3.1% below its 200-day average with a twelve-week view 8.2% under price, but the label it flipped to is the one this book has learned to distrust most - rally-sell signals on Singapore REITs reverse far more often than they resolve. Not owned; nothing to act on either way. OPERATIONAL: FailedBreakout_Down_20D 60 -> RallySell_BearTrend 50. REIT-1 is explicit - never act on a RallySell_BearTrend label alone on this book; the live cell is n=4 hit 0.75, below the actionable floor. Moot regardless:, long-only, bearish label = no-op. Close 2.45 -> 2.43 on 18.66M; EMA200 2.50681. Quality_Pass=False with a BLANK DCF_per_share = the SGR-1(a) over-penalty mode; val_adj -10 nulled per SGR-1. |
| — | FRASER L&C TRUST | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | Six sessions of the signal engine having nothing to say about this trust ended tonight - and it ended bearishly, with a fresh breakdown signal, the loss of its 200-day average for good after a one-session reclaim, and the most oversold momentum reading in the book. The oversold condition is the only constructive fact in the row and it is nowhere near a buy signal, with the twelve-week view still 11.8% below price. Watch only. OPERATIONAL: NO TRADE conv 0 (six sessions) -> AVOID 47 BreakdownDown_20D, full structure emitted 0.93/0.98/0.83. Close 0.94 -> 0.93; RSI 31.94 -> 29.83, lowest in book; EMA200 0.94219, reclaim lasted exactly one session. SGR-2 blocks any entry regardless of conviction (Target_12Week 0.82 < close). Row self-contradiction persists through tonight's FULL fairvalue regeneration - Bargain=True and Val_Signal=FAIR_VALUE alongside MoS_FV -5.78 - confirming a deterministic labelling bug rather than stale data, systemic finding 8, fourteenth session. val_adj -10 nulled per SGR-1. |
| — | CAPITALAND and ASCOTT STAPLE U | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | Drifted lower with the rest of the sleeve, conviction easing further within an already bearish read, and now 1.8% below its 200-day average with a twelve-week view 8.8% under price. Not owned. OPERATIONAL: AVOID; close 0.86 -> 0.855; RSI 41.94; EMA200 0.87091. Regime still Transitional. No Target_Price emitted by this signal family (systemic finding 5). val_adj -4 nulled per SGR-1; bearish family, -> no-op. |
| — | Mapletree Logistics Trust | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | The largest conviction decay on the board and a clean loss of its 200-day average, with the twelve-week view 9.5% below price. Whatever the rebound two sessions ago was, it was inside the bearish family and it is gone. Not owned. OPERATIONAL: AVOID, largest single decay tonight; close 1.18 -> 1.16; RSI 38.80; EMA200 1.19150 (-2.64%). Val_Signal NA (negative EPV/share) = SGR-1(b) silent-abstention mode, val_adj 0. No Target_Price emitted (systemic finding 5). Bearish family, -> no-op. |
| — | Mapletree Industrial Trust | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | The book's closest thing to a buy for three sessions has expired outright: the watch signal collapsed to no-trade at zero conviction, momentum gave back nine points, and it lost the 200-day average it alone was still holding. This is the clearest vindication yet of the rule that a single unconfirmed print on this book is a whipsaw - had the conviction floor been waived on the closest-thing-to-a-buy framing at any point, the book would now own a name that has gone bid-less. It still carries the shallowest negative forward view in the sleeve and stays the honest re-arm candidate. OPERATIONAL: WATCH -> 53 -> NO TRADE 0; NoTrade_Reason verbatim 'Consensus conflict + low conviction', Pillar_Consensus Conflicted. Close 1.93 -> 1.92; RSI 61.19 -> 52.21; EMA200 1.92684 (-0.36%), lost. SGR-3 vindicated - the confirming print came weaker, the third flat, the fourth zero. SGR-2 blocks regardless (Target_12Week 1.84 = -4.17% vs close, still the shallowest gap in the book). val_adj -10 nulled per SGR-1. RE-ARM: a STRENGTHENING same-family print at conv >= 65 WITH Target_12Week >= close, at the then-live Entry_Price. |
| — | CapitaLand Integrated Comm Tr | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | Now the last REIT in the book still trading above its 200-day average, on the heaviest volume in the sleeve, while every other name broke down around it - and the signal engine has had nothing to say about it for seven straight sessions, giving no entry, no stop and no target to size against. That is the frustrating shape of the night: the one name diverging constructively is the one the model has switched off. Its own forward view also widened to 5.5% below price, so there is no case to override. Nothing to act on. OPERATIONAL: NoTrade_Reason verbatim 'Consensus conflict + low conviction', SEVENTH consecutive scanned session; Pillar_Consensus Indeterminate. Close 2.38 -> 2.37 on 18.22M; EMA200 2.31021 (+2.59%), the only name above it. 12wk gap widened -4.20% -> -5.49%. Logged as systemic finding 6. val_adj -10 nulled per SGR-1. RE-ARM: a real bullish label at conv >= 65 with Target_12Week >= close, at the then-live Entry_Price - never a carried-forward level. |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
14 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.043 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
48 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.