Recommendations
0 to acquire · 1 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| N2IU | Mapletree PanAsia Com Tr | 1.23 | SELL ALL | 1.23 | 1.25⚠ | n/a | n/a | 1.07 (-13.0%) | Sell the whole position in Mapletree Pan Asia Commercial Trust at the open. The stop the book set at 1.25 was reached three sessions ago and has still not been reclaimed - the trust closed at 1.23, one and a half percent through its own risk line, below every moving average including the 200-day, and just over two percent above its 52-week low. The twelve-week view has now fallen for a seventh straight session to 1.07, about thirteen percent below the current price and deteriorating faster than the price itself. No fresh news explains the slide; it is a steady de-rating from 1.40 in March to 1.23 now, and the August distribution is already behind us. Valuation played no part in this decision: REIT fair-value screening is unreliable on distribution-paying trusts and is deliberately given zero weight on this book. OPERATIONAL: this is a REPRICE of the 2026-09-03 full-exit decision, not a re-derivation - L3 compliance rests on four material changes (price 1.22 -> 1.23 forcing an action-price reprice; family BreakdownDown_52W -> FailedBreakout_Down_20D, which unlike the prior family carries a LIVE ACTIONABLE scorecard cell at +5, n=9, hit_1w 0.75 - first scorecard support this thread has had; Target_12Week 1.08 -> 1.07, seventh consecutive deterioration; and the label DEGRADING from SELL - REDUCE/Sell_Rank 1 to AVOID/0%/no rank, which must be disclosed). The label downgrade is overridden by this book’s note-B, which names exactly this configuration: AVOID-degraded-from-SELL-REDUCE + below-stop + negative-12wk is a valid REIT exit. Basis L2/REIT-2: stop still broken 1.6% after a +0.82% bounce, close below EMA200 1.2929 (-4.9%), VWAP -2.81%. REIT-1 satisfied AFFIRMATIVELY for the first time - the family is FailedBreakout_Down_20D, the family REIT-1 names as trustworthy on this book, not a RallySell label. Adjusted conviction 62 is below the 65 floor, but that floor governs ACQUIRES; a dispose originates from the L2 stop-break basis. Taken at 100% against the engine’s 0% portion because a hit-and-broken stop is not renegotiable and this book’s documented failure mode is not cutting (counterfactual optional_trim n=47, median wh_4w -4.41% [cost], worsening every session). ADR-0020 does NOT fire (6.0% erosion vs 15% threshold, unconfigured here). Model Stop_Price 1.28 prints ABOVE the close - the inverted-stop defect RETURNED after one clean session; noted, not relied on. ESTIMATES: Target_Price is NULL on the anchor row for a second session, so the 4wk is n/a and the f=0.30 interpolation is unavailable; the Est_Low/Est_High band is exactly symmetric (close +/-2.00%) so its midpoint reproduces the close and carries zero directional information - the 1wk is therefore reported as n/a rather than dressed up, with the 52-week low 1.2020 (-2.3%) as the usable near-term downside reference. RE-DERIVE TRIGGER: if the 07-Sep open gaps above ~1.248 it reclaims the 1.250 stop and this card should be re-derived, not repriced. Reprice if the open gaps below ~1.212. BLOCKING: Auto-Executor last ran 2026-08-03 - 23 trading days, 17 consecutive dropped cards, measured outage cost ~S (narrowed ~Son today’s bounce, the first improvement in the series). Step 8a learnings review NOT run. · news |
| PORTFOLIO | sgreit | — | WATCH | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | One disposal, no acquisitions. N2IU is sold in full at the open: the 1.25 stop has been broken for three sessions and today’s bounce did not reclaim it, the price sits below every moving average including the 200-day and two percent above its 52-week low, and the twelve-week view has fallen a seventh straight session to thirteen percent below the current price. Nothing was bought because nothing qualified - six of eight names printed AVOID, one printed NO TRADE, and the single mover printed WATCH rather than BUY; every name in the book projects lower over twelve weeks. OPERATIONAL: buy pool empty at source for a tenth session, so the 65 floor / quality gate / size modulator were never reached; SGR-2 would independently bar all eight on Target_12Week < Close; no BUY - ANTICIPATE print, so no anticipate slot. The engine DOWNGRADED its N2IU label to AVOID/0% tonight - overridden by note-B (AVOID + below-stop + negative-12wk is a valid REIT exit) and supported for the first time by an actionable scorecard cell (FailedBreakout_Down_20D|sell +5, n=9, hit_1w 0.75), which section C of the ACTIVE learnings still denies exists. Near-miss: ME8U FailedBreakdown_Up_20D WATCH cv60, its second consecutive WATCH, but an L1-discounted family below the floor with a negative 12wk. M44U’s 09-03 re-arm trigger FAILED - ReversalUp_Oversold cv58 reverted to FailedBreakout_Down_20D AVOID cv71, the exact single-print whipsaw SGR-3 filters. BUOU escalated conviction on a BreakdownDown_20D at RSI 26.3, corroborating that the S-REIT leg is still breaking rather than basing. BLOCKING: Auto-Executor last ran 2026-08-03 - 23 trading days, 17 consecutive dropped cards, measured outage cost ~SLearnings promotion loop stalled 7 weeks with 6 inert PROPOSED blocks while section C now actively contradicts a bias the book had to apply. Step 8a learnings review NOT run. |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
19 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.043 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
48 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.