Recommendations
0 to acquire · 1 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| N2IU | Mapletree PanAsia Com Tr | 1.23 | SELL ALL | 1.23 | 1.25⚠ | n/a | n/a | 1.07 (-13.0%) | Sell the whole position in Mapletree Pan Asia Commercial Trust at the open. The stop the book set at 1.25 was reached five sessions ago and has never been reclaimed: yesterday the trust poked up to 1.26, above that line, and closed back underneath it, and today it gave the whole move back - opening at 1.24, closing at 1.23, only about two percent above its 52-week low and below every moving average including the 200-day. The twelve-week view is the worst in the book at 1.07, some thirteen percent below the current price, and it deteriorated again tonight. What makes tonight worth writing down rather than waiting is the calendar: US inflation data lands on the 11th, the Federal Reserve decides on the 16th and the Bank of Japan is widely expected to raise rates on the 18th - and this trust funds its Japanese offices in yen, so it is named individually on the two legs of that gauntlet that bite hardest. A rate-sensitive trust that has already lost its own risk line, is projected down over three months and is walking into a rate gauntlet is a position the book should not still be holding. It is being sold at a loss of about seven and a half percent against the 1.33 cost, which is the price of the decision having been made nineteen times and executed zero. OPERATIONAL: this is a REPRICE (1.24 -> 1.23) of the 09-02/03/04/07 full-exit thread, NOT a twentieth derivation. The label DEGRADED tonight - STRONG SELL - REDUCE 80.07% / Sell_Rank 1 / conv 71 / Position_Status CLOSING reverted to AVOID / Portion 0 / no rank / conv 46 / HOLDING, a -25 pt conviction collapse - so adjusted conviction is 46 + 0 (SGR-1) + 6 (scorecard) = 52 and DOES NOT clear the 65 floor. The card therefore does NOT carry on the label tonight; it carries on L2 / REIT-2 / learnings note-B, which make a decisive close below stop plus a negative 12wk an independent signal-based exit basis even while the engine prints AVOID - the exact case note-B describes as 'AVOID-degraded-from-SELL-REDUCE + below-stop + negative-12wk is a valid exit'. Four independent lines: (1) stop 1.250 broken 5 consecutive sessions, breach 1.6%, after a failed intraday reclaim yesterday; (2) close 1.23 below EMA200 1.2921 (-4.8%) and every shorter EMA (EMA5 1.2375 / EMA10 1.2473 / EMA20 1.2604 / EMA50 1.2747 / EMA100 1.2859), VWAP distance -2.54%; (3) Target_12Week 1.07 = -13.0%, the book's most negative and worse than last night's 1.08; (4) Exit_Strategy still prints 'immediate'. REIT-1 satisfied: family is FailedBreakout_Down_20D, the family REIT-1 names as the trusted one, and the live scorecard's best actionable cell (+6, n=11, hit_1w 0.778). Valuation zero-weighted by SGR-1 (GROWTH_PRICED_IN, MoS_FV -0.215, Quality_Pass False, DCF 1.0202) - it is NOT a reason for this sale. ADR-0020 does not fire (peak stop 1.33 vs live 1.25 = 6.0% erosion, under the 15% threshold, and unconfigured on this book). Full exit rather than the engine's 0% / last night's 80.07% because a stop that is hit and then renegotiated is not a stop, and this book's documented failure mode is not cutting at all (counterfactual optional_trim n=47, median -4.51% at 4wk). MARKET at open - a limit does not fill on a gap-down and this position has failed to exit nineteen times. Reprice if the 09-09 open gaps >1.5% (below ~1.212 or above ~1.248); RE-DERIVE rather than reprice if it opens above ~1.251, which would actually reclaim the 1.250 stop. ESTIMATES: Target_Price is NULL on the anchor row for a fourth consecutive session, so 4wk is n/a and the f=0.30 interpolation is unusable; Est_Low/Est_High is 1.2054/1.2546 = close +/-2.00% exactly for a fourth session, so its midpoint reproduces the close and carries no direction - 1wk reported n/a with the 52-week low 1.2020 (-2.3%) as the usable downside reference. 12wk 1.07 (-13.0%) exceeds the DCF anchor 1.0202 - projection assumes growth beyond priced-in; annotation mechanical and zero-weighted here per SGR-1. · news |
| PORTFOLIO | sgreit | — | WATCH | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | One disposal, no acquisitions. MPACT is sold in full at the open. Yesterday's attempt to reclaim the 1.25 stop failed and today the trust gave the whole bounce back, closing at 1.23 - five straight sessions below its own risk line, below every moving average, and roughly two percent off its 52-week low. The twelve-week view worsened again to about thirteen percent below the current price, and US inflation data, a Federal Reserve decision and a Bank of Japan rate rise all land within ten days on a trust that funds Japanese offices in yen. Nothing was bought because nothing qualified: seven of eight names printed AVOID and the eighth printed NO TRADE, with no bullish label anywhere in the book for a twelfth straight session, and every single name is still projected lower over twelve weeks - gaps that narrowed yesterday widened again today. The book would sit entirely in cash if the order fills, which is the right posture when nothing in it is working. OPERATIONAL: the sell carries on L2/REIT-2/note-B (decisive stop-break + negative 12wk), NOT on the label - the engine degraded to AVOID conv 46 tonight and adjusted conviction 52 does not clear the 65 floor. Auto-Executor dead 25 trading sessions, 19 consecutive dropped cards, measured outage cost ~S (widened from ~Sas the two-session bounce reversed). Step 8a learnings review NOT run (skipped by instruction). |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
21 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.043 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
48 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.