US — End-of-Day Verdict
1 ACQUIRE (QUEUED AAPL @308.38, deep limit) | DISPOSE 3: GOOGL exit 100, META exit 60, NVDA -30 | HOLD NBIS through -15% crash (marginal break, +65.8% fwd), ride KLAC/MU pullbacks, LLY trail 1127
Recommendations
1 to acquire · 3 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | Apple Inc. | 333.02 | BUY — QUEUED @308.38 | 308.38 | 298.50 | 336.16 (+9.0%) | 338.69 (+9.8%) | 339.85 (+10.2%) | Queue a starter Apple long on the pullback limit 308.38 - the first quality-passing (F=9) STRONG BUY on the reliable PullbackBuy_VWAP cell the book has thrown in a month, but the close (333) is 2.89 ATR past the model entry so we queue at the printed limit rather than chase. adj conviction 80 -10(val, GROWTH_PRICED_IN MoS -3.16) +3(scorecard) = 73, clears the 65 floor; size x0.5 (MoS <= -3) =>. expires 2026-07-29 (anchor +3 sessions). DEEP limit unlikely to fill - the model's own 1wk-low 316.83 sits above 308.38 (~7.4% retrace needed; no_chase_queue counterfactual +2.1% cost). Re-verify the PullbackBuy family + quality gate at any fill (US-8). 12wk 339.85 exceeds DCF 208.95. |
| GOOGL | Alphabet, Inc.- Class A | 319.74 | SELL ALL | 319.74 | 345.00⚠ | 327.27 (+2.4%) | 338.52 (+5.9%) | 374.51 (+17.1%) | Exit the full 100 Alphabet - re-fire of the unfilled 07-24 exit. Decisive -7.3% break of the pre-committed 345 hard line (close 319.74) on a name-specific post-earnings capex breakdown (2026 capex -205B, FCF -, buyback suspended, PT cuts). The +0.6% dead-cat bounce and RSI 32 do not restore the thesis; the pre-committed stop governs (loss-min primary). Model forward is UPSIDE (12wk +17.1%) - this is a pure risk-discipline stop-break exit, not a forward call. GROWTH_PRICED_IN MoS -1.62, no valuation amplify. 12wk 374.51 exceeds DCF 154.23. Proceeds Executes Mon 07-27 open, pending. |
| META | Meta Platforms | 595.19 | SELL ALL | 595.19 | 620.00⚠ | 593.17 (-0.3%) | 574.49 (-3.5%) | 592.94 (-0.4%) | Exit the full 60 Meta - re-fire of the unfilled 07-24 exit. Decisive stop-break (620) on an underwater position (-6.27% on the 635 cost) with a flat-to-negative forward (L2: Est_12W 592.94 < close, Est_4W -3.5%); below the 620 stop and EMA100. Do not carry a broken loss into the Q2 print 07-29 (2 sessions out) amid the AI-capex punishment (capex-contagion after GOOGL). PROFIT_ARMED is a loss-artifact (GainATR -1.69) - ignored. FAIR_VALUE MoS -1.24, no amplify. Proceeds Executes Mon 07-27 open, pending. |
| NVDA | NVIDIA Corporation | 206.84 | SELL 30% | 206.84 | 201.00 | 207.18 (+0.2%) | 204.33 (-1.2%) | 208.91 (+1.0%) | Bank NVIDIA (profit_take_1, ADR-0012) and keep the on a 201 trail. Armed (T12 99.0%) + tick (c) dead forward (Est_12W 208.91 < 1.02x close) + tick (d) 2 consecutive NO TRADE -> spent risk/reward at 99% of target. US-19: the SAME fire carded 07-16/07-23/07-24 that never executed, repriced 208..84, NOT escalated (still 30%). Shared with ussemicon -> execute ONCE (L7). GROWTH_PRICED_IN MoS -2.34, no amplify (> -3). 12wk exceeds DCF 163.98. Proceeds Executes Mon 07-27 open, pending. |
| NBIS | Nebius Group, N.V. | 187.77 | HOLD | 187.77 | 190.00⚠ | 193.01 (+2.8%) | 212.51 (+13.2%) | 311.36 (+65.8%) | Hold 300 Nebius through a -15% crash; #1 watch, keep (do NOT widen) the 190 stop. The stop broke only -1.17% (marginal, not decisive) and the model forward is the book's strongest -- Est_4W +13.2%, Est_12W +65.8%; L2 needs stop-break AND neg-12wk and the 12wk is hugely positive, so L2 does not fire. Catalyst = Meta-cloud-competition fear + a debt raise, but the Meta deal is intact (Meta stays a customer) and multiple desks call the selloff oversold -- the overlay invalidation ('Meta deal materially at risk') is not cleanly triggered. News CONCERN but disputed. Do NOT pre-trim into Q2 07-29 (+/-15%, 2 sessions out; NBIS-miss discipline). A 2nd decisive settle below stop / confirmed Meta-deal breakdown -> full exit next EOD. · news |
| KLAC | KLA Corporation | 210.52 | HOLD | 210.52 | 210.00 | 212.65 (+1.0%) | 213.54 (+1.4%) | 223.49 (+6.2%) | Hold the 1000-share KLA (largest position, +19.78% on the 175.75 cost), keep the 210 trail. Armed (T12 94.2%) + tick (d) 2x NO TRADE mechanically fires a profit-take, but G3 protects a winner: forward +6.2% alive (Est_12W 223.49), signal not bearish, and it held above the 210 trail (210.52 > 210). MoS -5.44 does not amplify -- G2 suppresses it (Target 223.49 >> DCF 93.26, unreliable on a hyper-grower). optional_trim counterfactual (-10.85% at 4wk) + US-20 say ride; first red day after the Q4 pop. Do not raise the trail into the pullback. A decisive <210 settle or confirmed lower-high -> trim 30% next EOD. |
| MU | Micron Technology, Inc. | 920.95 | HOLD | 920.95 | 880.00 | 925.47 (+0.5%) | 973.42 (+5.7%) | 976.03 (+6.0%) | Hold 100 Micron through a -7% pullback (still +7.15% on the 859.49 cost), keep the 880 trail. The flip HOLD cv53 -> NO TRADE cv0 mechanically fires tick (b) conviction-collapse, but the forward is alive +6.0% (Est_12W 976.03) and the news is overwhelmingly bullish (BofA PT UBS 2026 HBM sold out, record fiscal Q3, customers filled only 50-66% of demand) -- the down day reads as a pullback in a strong uptrend, not a break. Ride (optional_trim counterfactual + L1/US-20). Keep 880 (a trail never ratchets down). A decisive <880 settle or a 2nd NO TRADE with a rolling-over forward -> trim next EOD. |
| LLY | Eli Lilly & Co | 1196.03 | HOLD | 1196.03 | 1126.89 | 1208.17 (+1.0%) | 1223.80 (+2.3%) | 1242.84 (+3.9%) | Hold 70 Eli Lilly and RAISE the trail.89 (the model stop). The lone strengthener this session -- conviction climbing -> on FailedBreakdown_Up_20D, closed +0.9% to 1196.03. Armed (T12 96.2%) but not fired (tick (c) alive: Est_12W +3.9%; label HOLD, no -20 tick) -> armed-but-not-fired = mandatory trail-raise. Pharma-onshoring tariff decision 07-31 (+/-3%). |
| OKTA | Okta, Inc. | 138.50 | HOLD | 138.50 | 124.00 | 139.86 (+1.0%) | 137.23 (-0.9%) | 144.90 (+4.6%) | Hold 200 Okta on the 124 stop. The 07-22 add (200 @139.80) is -0.93% underwater; closed +1.8% to 138.50. HOLD cv49 FailedBreakdown_Up_20D; PROFIT_ARMED is a loss-artifact (GainATR -0.18) - declined. Quality gate PASSES (F=7), keepable; modest forward (Est_12W 144.90, +4.6%). Keep 124.00. |
| SPCX | Space Exploration Technologies (muted) | — | HOLD | — | 135.00 | n/a | n/a | n/a | Hold 160 SpaceX on the manual 135 stop; muted/private (no public quote, absent from the scan), news-assessed only. News read CONCERN, unchanged: secondary prints -135 sit at/below the stop and the first ~20% insider lock-up slice frees after Q2 (late July) with ~7% tranches Aug/Sep/Oct -- supply overhang. Auto-unmute + full-exit test the moment a scan Close < 135 prints. |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
93 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.132 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
23 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.