Recommendations
0 to acquire · 7 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| AAPL | Apple Inc | 303.42 | HOLD | 303.42 | 300.00 | 310.80 (+2.4%) | 328.02 (+8.1%) | 332.23 (+9.5%) | Apple is held with a hard line under it. A second consecutive down session (-1.8% to) leaves the book's largest position 1.1% above the event stop set after the guidance-cut drop, below both its 20- and 50-day averages with RSI at 40 and conviction fading. No sell origination fires: there is no REDUCE label, the PROFIT_ARMED flag is spurious (Gain_ATR -0.42, the position is 1.7% underwater), and the valuation-elevate path is suppressed because the 12-week projection of sits far above the DCF anchor - the unreliable-anchor case. ADR-0020 does not apply (book not configured; the 317.48 -> 300.00 re-base is a 5.5% step, inside the 15% threshold). The 12wk +9.5% is a mechanical projection that has not absorbed the guidance cut, so it is not treated as a bullish input. Stop KEPT (the 278.82 chandelier is far too loose for a line). A decisive close below is a FULL EXIT of, no further discretion. 22.1% of the sleeve. |
| AXP | American Express Co | 344.72 | HOLD | 344.72 | 328.22 | n/a | n/a | 344.94 (+0.1%) | American Express went quiet - no-trade on consensus conflict after four avoid prints - despite a +2.5% session. The 12-week view is dead flat at +0.06% and the position is 2.1% underwater, so there is no profit to take and no exit case to originate; the PROFIT_ARMED flag is spurious (Gain_ATR -0.88). Watch, do not act. Trail RAISED 320.07 -> 328.22 (2.0xATR). |
| KO | Coca-Cola Co | 86.86 | HOLD | 86.86 | 83.64 | n/a | n/a | 96.81 (+11.5%) | Coca-Cola prints no-trade on consensus conflict for a second session on an position, 3.2% above cost with a 12-week view of +11.5%. No trigger either way. Trail KEPT 83.64 (chandelier 82.48 is lower). |
| BAC | Bank of America Corp | 62.48 | HOLD | 62.48 | 60.49 | 63.08 (+1.0%) | 64.47 (+3.2%) | 73.84 (+18.2%) | Bank of America is the strongest core line in the book: conviction recovered on the highest trend reading among the large positions, the shares sit above every moving average, and the model sees +18.2% over twelve weeks on a position. Not actionable - HOLD is not a buy label, adjusted conviction lands at 66 after a small valuation haircut, and the book already added a tranche here on 07-28. Trail RAISED 60.29 -> 60.49 (2.0xATR). |
| CVX | Chevron Corp | 193.18 | NO ACTION | 193.18 | 189.50 | n/a | n/a | 207.09 (+7.2%) | Chevron stays whole at +14.2%. It is armed on profit progress but no tick fires: no second warning code, the 12-week view is alive at +7.2%, and there is only one no-trade print rather than two. The conviction move is the structural NoTrade zero this book discounts by policy, not a real collapse. The stock gave back 1.9% after the Q2 blowout pop (net income, revenue +56.3%, EPS 8.8% above consensus) - normal digestion. Every graded Chevron sell in this book has been a bad sell. Trail KEPT 189.50 (chandelier 183.56 is lower). |
| OXY | Occidental Petroleum Corp | 55.47 | NO ACTION | 55.47 | 53.77 | n/a | n/a | 55.32 (-0.3%) | Occidental's profit-take fires again on the model but is cancelled for a second session by a confirmed catalyst: Q2 2026 reports 2026-08-05, two sessions out, with consensus EPS (+397% year-on-year) on revenue (+11.9%). We do not trim a +13.4% position into a print that large - the same catalyst-aware rule that correctly blocked Chevron on 07-30. Armed (Gain_ATR 3.73, T12_Progress 100.27) + tick (c) dead 12wk (55.32 < 1.02x55.47 = 56.58, -0.27%); would be 30% = Row also collapsed to NO TRADE cv0 ('Consensus conflict + low conviction') -> adj -5 after the NoTrade|sell -5 bias, nowhere near the floor. Price -2.80% to 55.47. Trail KEPT 53.77 (chandelier 51.95 is lower). Re-arms immediately post-print if the 12wk stays dead. · news |
| GOOGL | Alphabet Inc Cl A | 373.51 | SELL 30% | 373.51 | 343.58 | n/a | n/a | 340.96 (-8.7%) | Alphabet is trimmed a third after a two-session +11.4% post-earnings recovery took it to +3.78% above our cost. The Q2 print was outstanding - Cloud revenue +82% to, operating margin 20.7% -> 35.6%, a record backlog - and Monday's +4.9% came on Morgan Stanley reassuring investors about the record AI-infrastructure spend. The offsetting fact is that FY26 capex was raised to -205B funded by an raise, real dilution against a model 12-week view that has turned -8.7% negative. So we bank a third into strength and let 70% run on a raised trail. ADR-0012: armed on T12_Progress 109.55 with a POSITIVE Gain_ATR 0.91 (a genuine arm) + tick (c) dead 12wk (340.96 < 1.02x373.51). Row independently prints STRONG SELL - REDUCE 88.52% cv67 for a 2nd session on FailedBreakout_Down_20D (only positive sell cell, +1, n=25, hit.529) -> adj 68, clears the 65 floor. The 89% tier is CANCELLED by news for a 2nd session (Trend 83 / Consolidation_Bullish under a bearish label; Stop_Price 343.58 prints BELOW spot - malformed-sell artifact, 4th occurrence); only the 30% arm-and-fire minimum is taken. MoS -0.62 > -3, no valuation tier bump. G1 n/a (not breakout family, cv<80); G3 permits (12wk negative AND label bearish). 07-31 cancellation vindicated: + preserved across GOOGL+GOOG. Hold; trail RAISED 329.02 -> 343.58 (2.0xATR). · news |
| CB | Chubb Ltd | 348.23 | HOLD | 348.23 | 341.96 | 353.18 (+1.4%) | 364.73 (+4.7%) | 370.89 (+6.5%) | Chubb holds at HOLD cv45, fading from 69 over four sessions but with a 12-week view still +6.5% and the position only 1.5% underwater. PROFIT_ARMED is spurious (Gain_ATR -0.62). No action. Trail KEPT 341.96 (chandelier 331.73 is lower). |
| MCO | Moody's Corp | 483.36 | HOLD | 483.36 | 458.00 | 491.05 (+1.6%) | 508.98 (+5.3%) | 501.10 (+3.7%) | Moody's holds at HOLD cv57 with a 12-week view of +3.7% and the position 1.1% underwater; PROFIT_ARMED is spurious (Gain_ATR -0.41). Sits right on its 20-day average. No action. Stop KEPT 458.00 (chandelier 457.74 is marginally lower). |
| KHC | Kraft Heinz Co | 26.42 | HOLD | 26.42 | 25.70 | 26.92 (+1.9%) | 28.08 (+6.3%) | 30.72 (+16.3%) | Kraft Heinz is the one name in this book worth watching on the buy side. It is the only holding the valuation layer calls genuinely cheap - a positive margin of safety of +0.32 against fair value - and the signal recovered from no-trade to HOLD cv69 with a bullish trend reading, trading above its 20-, 50- and 200-day averages after a +2.2% session. The model sees +6.3% over four weeks and +16.3% over twelve. Adjusted conviction 72 (cv69 + val_adj +3, halved from +6 for the failed quality screen) clears the floor comfortably - it fails on exactly one thing: HOLD is not an actionable buy label. The quality gate would NOT block an add here (gate applies to new entries only; already held). Trail KEPT 25.70. An ADD label is actionable the moment it prints. |
| DVA | DaVita Inc | 233.68 | HOLD | 233.68 | 233.38 | n/a | n/a | 300.58 (+28.6%) | DaVita prints NO TRADE with the reason quoted verbatim as 'Liquidity gate failed' - the only row in the book with that reason, so the signal is suppressed rather than bearish. It carries the best forward view of any holding at +28.6% over twelve weeks, but there is no tradeable trigger and the valuation layer reads growth priced in at MoS -3.97. Trail KEPT 233.38 (chandelier 219.25 is lower). |
| KR | Kroger Co | 58.22 | SELL ALL | 58.22 | 54.87 | n/a | n/a | 47.03 (-19.2%) | Kroger carries as a 100% close-out on its prior signal basis, not on today's label - AVOID cv51 has no graded sell cell and sits below the action floor. The case is unchanged and unattractive: the model's 12-week view is 19.2% below the price and the shares trade 10.2% under their 200-day average, with a flat 0.0% mark against cost. 109-share residual Standing close-out, carried; trail raised 54.53 -> 54.87 for the monitor. |
| SIRI | Sirius XM Holdings Inc | 30.37 | HOLD | 30.37 | 28.98 | 31.16 (+2.6%) | 33.00 (+8.7%) | 34.49 (+13.6%) | Sirius XM holds at HOLD cv61 with a 12-week view of +13.6% and the position flat at -0.5% against cost. The 07-31 stop re-base to 28.98 is unbreached. No action. Stop KEPT 28.98 (chandelier 27.74 is lower). |
| DAL | Delta Air Lines Inc | 91.59 | HOLD | 91.59 | 85.53 | 93.41 (+2.0%) | 97.65 (+6.6%) | 104.63 (+14.2%) | Delta holds at HOLD cv56 after a +4.8% session, well clear of its stop with a 12-week view of +14.2% and trading 26% above its 200-day average. No action. Trail RAISED 82.57 -> 85.53 (2.0xATR). |
| VRSN | VeriSign Inc | 298.89 | NO ACTION | 298.89 | 274.23 | 292.53 (-2.1%) | 277.70 (-7.1%) | 324.97 (+8.7%) | VeriSign is armed at +16.6% but no deterioration tick fires, so we raise the trailing stop rather than trim - with a warning. The label turned HOLD -> AVOID on a ReversalDown_Overbought print at RSI 67.1 after a +3.1% session, the first genuine overbought-reversal signal on this position. AVOID is not a REDUCE and does not enter the sell pool. Ticks checked: (a) PROFIT_ARMED is the only Exit_Warning code; (b) conviction is -12, short of the -20 bar; (c) 12wk 324.97 > 1.02x298.89 = 304.87, alive at +8.7%; (d) no NO TRADE prints. Note the row's Stop_Price 323.55 prints ABOVE spot and Target_Price 277.70 below it - short-side artifact, rejected. Trail RAISED 265.73 -> 274.23 (2.0xATR); a tick (a) or (b) next session fires a 30%. |
| COF | Capital One Financial Corp | 217.68 | HOLD | 217.68 | 205.24 | n/a | n/a | 242.93 (+11.6%) | Capital One prints AVOID cv0 on NoSignal despite the second-highest trend reading in the book and a +4.2% session, with a 12-week view of +11.6% and the position 6.1% ahead. A no-signal row is not a sell case. Not armed. Trail RAISED 198.93 -> 205.24 (2.0xATR). |
| ALLY | Ally Financial Inc | 44.07 | HOLD | 44.07 | 41.68 | n/a | n/a | 41.14 (-6.6%) | Ally prints no-trade on consensus conflict for a fourth consecutive session. It is one of only two holdings the valuation layer calls undervalued (MoS +0.06), but there is no signal trigger and the position is 2.7% underwater; PROFIT_ARMED is spurious (Gain_ATR -1.00). Trail RAISED 41.00 -> 41.68 (2.0xATR). |
| GOOG | Alphabet Inc Cl C | 372.47 | SELL 30% | 372.47 | 343.03 | n/a | n/a | 343.88 (-7.7%) | Alphabet Class C trimmed on the identical case as Class A - the two share classes are one economic decision executed on two lines, as the 13F holds them. Up 4.6% against cost after a +4.4% session on the Morgan Stanley AI-capex reassurance and the Q2 blowout; we bank 30% and let the rest run. ADR-0012: armed on T12_Progress 108.31, Gain_ATR 1.11 positive, +4.57%, + tick (c) dead 12wk (343.88 < 1.02x372.47 = 379.92, -7.68%). STRONG SELL - REDUCE 88.52% cv67, 2nd consecutive print, FailedBreakout_Down_20D +1 -> adj 68. 89% tier cancelled by the same news; minimum tier only. MoS -0.62, no bump. Hold; trail RAISED 329.56 -> 343.03 (2.0xATR). · news |
| LLYVK | Liberty Live Group Ser C | 102.85 | HOLD | 102.85 | 95.14 | 105.16 (+2.2%) | 110.55 (+7.5%) | 103.10 (+0.2%) | Liberty Live Class C, same case as Class A - recovered +4.3% the session after the whipsaw that broke its ratcheted trail. HOLD cv48 with a 12-week view of +0.2%, flat rather than negative, so no exit test fires; valuation NA, PROFIT_ARMED spurious (Gain_ATR -1.07). Trail RAISED 91.34 -> 95.14 (2.0xATR). |
| LEN | Lennar Corp Cl A | 85.20 | SELL ALL | 85.20 | 79.79 | n/a | n/a | 70.59 (-17.1%) | Lennar Class A clears the action floor for the first time in a week: the label moved off the book's worst-graded sell family onto FailedBreakout_Down_20D, which picks up a +1 bias instead of the -7 haircut that blocked it on 07-31, giving adj 69. The 12-week view is 17.1% below the price and the shares sit 13.6% under their 200-day average. 34-share residual; taken at 100% rather than 88.52% on the same sub-lot rounding. Standing close-out since 07-20, carried - misses a card slot on dollar bleed only. |
| NUE | Nucor Corp | 261.28 | NO ACTION | 261.28 | 242.55 | n/a | n/a | 308.42 (+18.0%) | Nucor's trim is cancelled for a third session and the bright line re-bases upward. The 07-31 card set an explicit test - a close below converts this to a trim with no further news exemption - and the stock closed, 9.3% above it and rising. The fundamentals improved rather than deteriorated: hot-rolled coil has rebounded to near a short ton on mill price increases, lengthening lead times and tariff-driven import compression, on top of Q2's record 7.1M tons shipped and adjusted EPS, and Morgan Stanley raised its target on the supply-driven rally. Trimming an +18.4% winner making highs into a tightening steel market is the NBIS error. Armed (Gain_ATR 4.33) + tick (d) - now 4 consecutive NO TRADE prints - would be 30% =; adj conviction 0 -> -5. 12wk 308.42 (+18.0%), close 30% above EMA200. Tick (d) here reflects Conflicted pillar consensus on a strong uptrend, not deterioration. Trail RAISED 239.04 -> 242.55; a close below 242.55 now converts this to a trim with no further news exemption. · news |
| LLYVA | Liberty Live Group Ser A | 99.15 | HOLD | 99.15 | 91.08 | n/a | n/a | 98.56 (-0.6%) | Liberty Live Class A vindicated the 07-31 decision to hold through a -7% single-session break of a trail that had been ratcheted off one high-conviction print: it recovered +4.7% the very next session. AVOID cv55 with a 12-week view of -0.6% is flat, not negative, so the stop-break exit test does not fire; valuation is unavailable (NA) and PROFIT_ARMED is spurious (Gain_ATR -1.23). Trail RAISED 87.64 -> 91.08 (2.0xATR). |
| STZ | Constellation Brands Cl A | 131.36 | SELL ALL | 131.36 | 136.22⚠ | n/a | n/a | 102.03 (-22.3%) | Constellation Brands remains the cleanest exit case in the book and the only stop breach on the monitor: the stock closed 3.6% through its stop, the model's 12-week view is 22.3% below the price, and the shares trade 10% under their 200-day average. STRONG SELL - REDUCE cv68 on FailedBreakout_Down_20D -> adj 69, clears the floor. 23-share 13F residual standing 100% close-out since 07-20 and unexecuted for 10 sessions - it misses a card slot only on dollar bleed, not on merit. L2 satisfied. Carried; executor has never filled a sell in this book. |
| NVR | NVR Inc | 6204.10 | SELL ALL | 6204.10 | 5809.98 | n/a | n/a | 5526.52 (-10.9%) | NVR is closed out entirely. The signal flipped back to a stable failed-breakout REDUCE at the book's highest adjusted sell conviction, the model's 12-week view sits 10.9% below today's price, and the shares trade 9% under their 200-day average while the position is 8.1% underwater against the seed cost - a losing homebuilder position with a negative forward view and no valuation discount to defend it (growth still priced in at MoS -0.21). STRONG SELL - REDUCE 88.52% cv69 on FailedBreakout_Down_20D (+1 cell) -> adj 70, top of the sell pool. Taken at 100% rather than the model's 88.52% because this is a 3-share 13F-seed residual and the model portion would strand a single share - same sub-lot rounding used on STZ/LEN since 07-20. L2 satisfied (negative 12wk + sub-EMA200). No news in-window. Position closes; stop retired. |
| M | Macy's Inc | 25.95 | HOLD | 25.95 | 24.01 | 27.63 (+6.5%) | 31.56 (+21.6%) | 31.21 (+20.3%) | Macy's carries a live buy-stop order type at on a 52-week breakout with the joint-highest trend reading in the book and the best four-week target here at +21.6%, but it is not actionable twice over: HOLD is not a buy label, and after the valuation haircut adjusted conviction lands at 54, below the floor - while the price sits 0.42 ATR past the model entry, over the no-chase line. The position is already +11.6% ahead. Trail RAISED 23.77 -> 24.01 (2.0xATR). |
| LEN-B | Lennar Corp Cl B | 83.39 | SELL ALL | 83.39 | 78.64 | n/a | n/a | 69.76 (-16.3%) | Lennar Class B is the highest-conviction sell label in the book at cv75 -> adj 76, on the same failed-breakout family that now carries a positive bias rather than the -7 haircut that blocked it on 07-31. 12-week view 16.3% below price, shares 11.9% under the 200-day average. 9-share residual; 100% close-out on sub-lot rounding. Standing since 07-20, carried. |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
60 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
0.025 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
46 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.