Recommendations
0 to acquire · 3 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| GOOGL | Alphabet Inc Cl A | 354.30 | SELL 30% | 354.30 | 348.52 | 353.16 (-0.3%) | n/a | 340.63 (-3.9%) | Alphabet is being de-risked for a third session running, and this time the order is actually going out. The signal engine has printed NO TRADE on three consecutive settled closes - it has no read on the name at all - and the 12-week view has slipped further into the red at 340.63 against a 354.30 close. The news is genuinely two-sided: Q2 was a blowout, with revenue up 24% to 8bn, cloud up 82% and earnings roughly triple what analysts expected, but the company is that growth by taking free cash flow negative, doubling long-term debt to $98bn, suspending the buyback and lining up a further $25bn bond issue, while the AI leadership keeps reshuffling around it. A superb income statement financed by a deteriorating balance sheet is exactly what a negative forward view describes. Valuation adds nothing either way - a intrinsic anchor against a price is not a view worth acting on - so this stays a signal-originated trim: a third of the line off, the rest held. Ops: 2,422 of at =; ADR-0012 ticks (c) dead 12wk + (d) 3x NO TRADE both live; tier held at 30% not the mechanical 50% because Unreal_PnL is -1.56% so the profit-take precondition is not met (Systemic finding 1) and because the book already wrote twice; G2 suppresses the valuation-amplify path (DCF 145.29); the identical 08-06 card was never executed (executor last ran before the 08-07 open) and is re-priced here from 357.75 to 354.30 per the provenance rule; trail on the remainder held at 348.52; ex-div on 2026-09-04. · news |
| ALLY | Ally Financial Inc | 43.72 | SELL 30% | 43.72 | 42.63 | 43.53 (-0.4%) | n/a | 41.40 (-5.3%) | Ally has gone four straight sessions without a tradable long signal - two AVOID prints followed by two NO TRADE prints - and the model's 12-week view now sits 5% below the current price. Second-quarter earnings came in a shade under expectations at against, and although the underlying quarter was respectable, with net income up 13% and a buyback completed, the shares are down nearly 4% year to date while the broader market has run. The one argument on the other side is price: Ally is one of only two names in this book that screens as genuinely cheap on intrinsic value, which is why this is a partial trim taking a third off rather than an exit. The remainder stays. Ops: 2,291 of at = realizing ~-against a 45.27 cost; admitted on the CLAUDE.md section 9 sustained-NoTrade basis (2x consecutive cv0) plus a negative 12wk, the US-1 pattern acted on early rather than ground down; PROFIT_ARMED on the row is spurious (Gain_ATR -1.60, position at a loss - Systemic finding 1); UNDERVALUED (MoS +0.05, Quality_Pass False) argues the tier DOWN one step per section 9(b) but 30% is already the minimum tier, so the effect is recorded not applied; price is only +2.4% above EMA200 42.71, which is what makes this actionable now; stop on the remainder held at 42.63. · news |
| GOOG | Alphabet Inc Cl C | 353.47 | SELL 30% | 353.47 | 347.25 | 352.48 (-0.3%) | n/a | 341.63 (-3.3%) | The C-shares are trimmed on exactly the same basis as the A-shares and at the same time - holding two different views of one company across two share classes would be incoherent. Three consecutive NO TRADE prints, a 12-week view 3.4% below the current price, and the same underlying story: a record quarter funded by negative free cash flow, doubled long-term debt, a suspended buyback and a fresh $25bn bond plan. A third of the line comes off; the rest is held. Ops: 161 of at =; ADR-0012 ticks (c) + (d) live; G2 suppresses valuation-amplify (DCF 145.29); re-priced from the unexecuted 08-06 card's 356.62 per the provenance rule; trail on the remainder held at 347.25. · news |
| CVX | Chevron Corp | 186.56 | NO ACTION | 186.56 | 179.56 | n/a | 195.64 (+4.9%) | 189.98 (+1.8%) | Chevron's profit-take triggered tonight on a technicality and the business news argues loudly against acting on it. The trigger is that the model's 12-week price target drifted a fraction below the current price - a 0.2% margin - while the company just reported second-quarter net income of 1bn with earnings of a share against expected, cut total debt by 4bn in the quarter, hit its $3bn annual cost-reduction target six months early, posted record production and signed a 20-year power agreement with Microsoft for AI datacentres. The position is up 10% and is being kept; the stop is raised instead. Ops: genuinely armed (Gain_ATR 3.83, +10.26% unrealized - the real arming limb, not the broken T12_Progress one); tick (c) crossed tonight, Target_12Week 189.98 < 1.02 x 186.56 = 190.29, having missed by on 08-06; one tick = the 30% tier, 331 of = of dollar bleed, fourth in rank tonight and crowded out of the <=3 cap; conviction is a 14-point drop, under the 20-point tick (b) threshold; trail held at 179.56 (2.0x ATR chandelier computes to 177.48 - lower, and trails ratchet up only); ex-div on 2026-08-19; mandatory candidate next EOD. · news |
| VRSN | VeriSign Inc | 294.56 | NO ACTION | 294.56 | 276.38 | n/a | n/a | 328.00 (+11.4%) | VeriSign's profit-take has now triggered three sessions running, and three times the reason has been that the signal engine cannot read the name rather than that the business is deteriorating. The business is doing the opposite: second-quarter revenue up 6%, earnings up nearly 8%, a record 12.7 million new domain registrations, the.web domain finally delegated into the internet root zone, full-year guidance intact and a Strong Buy upgrade as estimates rise. The position is up 15% and the model still sees 11% more upside over twelve weeks. Held again; the stop stays where it is. Ops: genuinely armed (Gain_ATR 4.07, +14.87%); fired on tick (d) only - three consecutive NO TRADE cv0 prints - with no deterioration tick behind it; 80 of = of dollar bleed, fifth in rank and crowded out of the <=3 cap for a third consecutive session; Target_12Week 328.00 is +11.4%, nowhere near tick (c); trail held at 276.38 (2.0x ATR chandelier computes to 275.81 - lower); ex-div on 2026-08-19; mandatory candidate next EOD. · news |
| NVR | NVR Inc | 6390.14 | NO ACTION | 6390.14 | 6010.84 | 6344.70 (-0.7%) | n/a | 5844.92 (-8.5%) | NVR is the clearest sell in the book and, for the seventh session running, the one that cannot win a slot because it is also the smallest. The signal has printed STRONG SELL on five consecutive closes and ranks first among all sell candidates; the shares sit 6% below their long-term trend line with a 12-week view 8.5% lower still. The news is unambiguous - second-quarter earnings fell 22.6% and missed by more than 11%, homebuilding revenue came in 5% light, and the shortfall was margin and pricing rather than a one-off. The stock is down 15% this year and 28% below its high. This is a standing full exit waiting only for capacity. Ops: at = engine 88.52 rounds to a full close-out; adjusted conviction 64 is one point under the 65 floor after the FailedBreakout_Down_20D|sell -1 bias, but a stable REDUCE is an exit basis in its own right and L2 clears it independently (below EMA200 6,809.73 and negative 12wk); carried since 2026-07-31; stop raised 5,954.11 -> 6,010.84; see Systemic finding 2 - the dust-close-out slot problem this position keeps demonstrating. · news |
| JEF | Jefferies Financial Group | 56.62 | WATCH | 56.62 | 55.68 | n/a | 60.39 (+6.7%) | 59.11 (+4.4%) | Jefferies is the only name in the entire book generating a buy signal tonight, and it is being passed over for the second session running. The quality screen fails it outright - the balance-sheet and cash-flow checks that gate any new position do not clear - and on intrinsic value it screens expensive against the residual-income anchor for a financial. The signal itself has also weakened rather than firmed, and this particular setup type has a poor record in this book. No order. Ops: BUY cv67 (down from 74), Buy_Rank 1, so this is a NEW entry and the hard quality gate applies (Quality_Pass=False, F-Score/FCF screen failed); US-10 independently treats a FailedBreakdown_Up_20D buy as non-actionable below raw conviction 75; val_adj -2 -> adjusted 65, exactly at the floor and blocked twice over; not queued; valuation freshly regenerated 2026-08-08. |
| AAPL | Apple Inc | 313.33 | HOLD | 313.33 | 300.00 | n/a | n/a | 324.46 (+3.6%) | Apple is the book's largest holding and is one print away from becoming its largest sale. The signal engine has lost the name for two consecutive closes, but unlike Alphabet the forward view is still positive - the model sees the shares modestly higher over twelve weeks and the price sits comfortably above its long-term trend. That is the only thing holding the position tonight. Ops: 2x consecutive NO TRADE cv0 satisfies ADR-0012 tick (d), but tick (c) does NOT fire - Target_12Week 324.46 > 1.02 x 313.33 = 319.60; PROFIT_ARMED on the row is spurious (Gain_ATR 0.54, armed via the broken T12_Progress limb - Systemic finding 1); price +11.8% above EMA200 280.32; a third NO TRADE with the 12wk turning negative makes this a mandatory dispose and at a 30% trim would be; stop held at the 300.00 event level (2.0x ATR chandelier computes to 295.96 - lower). |
| MCO | Moody's Corp | 477.75 | HOLD | 477.75 | 461.27 | n/a | n/a | 482.06 (+0.9%) | Moody's continues to deteriorate quietly and is now sitting almost exactly on its long-term trend line with the model's twelve-week view offering essentially no upside. It is held tonight only because the engine has printed one bad session, not two. Ops: AVOID cv45 -> NO TRADE cv0, first of the two prints tick (d) requires; close 477.75 is just (0.5 ATR) above EMA200 472.36; tick (c) IS live - Target_12Week 482.06 < 1.02 x 477.75 = 487.31; PROFIT_ARMED spurious (position -2.22%); third-largest line at; most likely card of the next two sessions after AAPL; trail held at 461.27. |
| AXP | American Express Co | 340.91 | HOLD | 340.91 | 334.75 | n/a | n/a | 344.90 (+1.2%) | American Express flipped from hold to no-signal tonight and its twelve-week view has flattened to almost nothing, but a single bad print is not a decision. Held, with the trailing stop just below. Ops: HOLD cv62 -> NO TRADE cv0, one print of the two tick (d) needs; Target_12Week 344.90 is +1.2%, marginally inside the tick (c) threshold of +2%; PROFIT_ARMED spurious (position -3.14%); second-largest line at; trail held at 334.75 (2.0x ATR chandelier computes to 327.09 - lower). |
| KHC | Kraft Heinz Co | 25.32 | HOLD | 25.32 | 24.15 | n/a | 27.18 (+7.3%) | 27.35 (+8.0%) | Kraft Heinz has recovered cleanly from last session's stop breach - the decision to hold through it on the strength of the earnings beat and raised full-year outlook was the right one. Conviction has rebounded sharply and the twelve-week view points 8% higher. Nothing to do. Ops: conviction, back to HOLD on FailedBreakdown_Up_20D; the 08-06 re-based stop of 24.15 (set just under EMA200 24.39) held; note the freshly regenerated valuation moved KHC from UNDERVALUED (MoS +0.32) to FAIR_VALUE (MoS -0.66) - it is no longer the cheapest name in the book; stop held at 24.15. |
| SIRI | Sirius XM Holdings Inc | 29.91 | HOLD | 29.91 | 28.60 | n/a | 31.93 (+6.8%) | 32.46 (+8.5%) | Sirius XM also recovered from last session's marginal stop breach, and conviction has rebounded hard. The twelve-week view points 8.5% higher and the shares sit well above their long-term trend. Held. Ops: conviction, back to HOLD; the deliberately-low 28.60 stop held; ex-dividend lands Monday 2026-08-10 - the ~0.9% mechanical mark-down is already accounted for below the stop, which is why it was set there; stop held at 28.60. |
| NUE | Nucor Corp | 272.63 | HOLD | 272.63 | 256.22 | n/a | 289.04 (+6.0%) | 346.47 (+27.1%) | Nucor is the book's best position, up 23%, and the model still sees another 27% over twelve weeks. The signal recovered from a one-session blank back to a hold. Ride it - the stop moves up underneath. Ops: Gain_ATR 6.32, genuinely armed, but no ADR-0012 tick fires - Target_12Week 346.47 is far above the tick (c) threshold and conviction rose; trail raised 255.59 -> 256.22 (engine 2.0x ATR chandelier); G3 forbids trimming a momentum name with a solidly positive forward view. |
| BAC | Bank of America Corp | 63.17 | HOLD | 63.17 | 61.19 | n/a | 65.15 (+3.1%) | 74.85 (+18.5%) | Bank of America remains the book's healthiest large position - up 5%, 16% above its long-term trend, with the model seeing nearly 19% more over twelve weeks - but the pullback entry the engine keeps asking for has not arrived and the add signal has now faded three sessions running. No new money; the stop moves up. Ops: HOLD cv61 -> cv56, further below the 65 add floor; the 08-04 and 08-05 gtc_limit queues (61.32, 61.52) both expired unfilled and were withdrawn 08-06, no re-queue per the no-chase rule; Gain_ATR 3.07 arms the position but no tick fires; RSI 66.6 - extended, which is exactly why the pullback never came; trail raised 60.48 -> 61.19 (engine 2.0x ATR chandelier). |
| OXY | Occidental Petroleum Corp | 55.91 | HOLD | 55.91 | 51.96 | n/a | 59.86 (+7.1%) | 54.94 (-1.7%) | Occidental is up 14% and its profit-take trigger is still technically live, but it is the same trigger the position was already halved on last week - re-cutting on an unchanged condition one session later is escalation, not discipline. Conviction has actually improved and the shares hold above their long-term trend. Held; the stop moves up. Ops: Gain_ATR 3.55, tick (c) live (Target_12Week 54.94 < 1.02 x 55.91 = 57.03) but unchanged since the 50% cut filled at 56.43 on the 08-06 open; conviction -> 62; price +7.4% above EMA200 52.04; re-arms only on a genuinely new tick - a second Exit_Warning code, a 20-point conviction drop, or 2x NO TRADE; trail raised 51.76 -> 51.96 (engine 2.0x ATR chandelier). |
| DVA | DaVita Inc | 183.77 | HOLD | 183.77 | 174.64 | n/a | n/a | 159.80 (-13.0%) | DaVita would qualify for another cut on the same basis as Alphabet - three sessions with no signal and a twelve-week view 13% below the current price - but the position was already halved last week on this exact unchanged condition, and the remainder was explicitly placed behind a trend-line stop rather than a further trim. That line has not been touched. The stop carries the decision. Ops: 3x consecutive NO TRADE cv0 and Target_12Week 159.80 = -13.0%, but the 08-05 card halved the position ( filled @ 186.01 on the 08-06 open) and set EMA200 as the trigger for the rest; EMA200 is 174.75, close is 183.77 - not hit; RSI 24.2, deeply washed out; ADR-0020 Trail Erosion does not fire despite the stop sitting 25.2% below its 233.38 peak, because the position WAS size-reduced after that peak and the rule is default-off for this book; stop held at 174.64. |
| DAL | Delta Air Lines Inc | 91.34 | HOLD | 91.34 | 86.70 | n/a | n/a | 108.32 (+18.6%) | Delta's signal has gone quiet for a second session, but the position is healthy underneath - 24% above its long-term trend with the model seeing nearly 19% more over twelve weeks. This is the engine losing the thread, not the position breaking. Held, with a meaningfully higher stop. Ops: 2x consecutive NO TRADE cv0 satisfies tick (d), but tick (c) does NOT fire (Target_12Week 108.32 = +18.6%) and the position is not armed (no PROFIT_ARMED, Gain_ATR -0.61), so there is no profit-take to fire; the 08-05 gtc_limit @87.30 expired unfilled and was withdrawn 08-06 - no re-queue, there is no live Entry_Price to anchor to; trail raised 84.07 -> 86.70 (2.0x ATR chandelier). |
| KO | Coca-Cola Co | 87.05 | HOLD | 87.05 | 83.78 | n/a | 90.32 (+3.8%) | 95.74 (+10.0%) | Coca-Cola is quietly doing its job - up 3.5%, holding a steady hold signal for a third session, with the model seeing 10% more over twelve weeks. Nothing to decide; the stop steps up. Ops: PROFIT_ARMED via the T12_Progress limb only (Gain_ATR 1.78 - not a genuine 3-ATR arming), no tick fires; fourth-largest line at; trail raised 83.64 -> 83.78 (engine 2.0x ATR chandelier). |
| LLYVK | Liberty Live Group Ser C | 102.80 | HOLD | 102.80 | 98.01 | n/a | n/a | 104.35 (+1.5%) | Liberty Live's C-shares fell from a strong hold to no signal at all in a single session, with the twelve-week view now offering almost nothing. One print is not a decision, but a second one would be. Held on the stop. Ops: HOLD cv80 -> NO TRADE cv0, first of the two prints tick (d) requires; Target_12Week 104.35 is inside the tick (c) threshold at +1.5%; valuation is permanently NA on this line (negative book-value anchor) so fusion runs technical-only with val_adj 0 and the quality gate off; trail held at 98.01 (2.0x ATR chandelier computes to 97.33 - lower); watch alongside LLYVA, which flipped identically. |
| LLYVA | Liberty Live Group Ser A | 98.78 | HOLD | 98.78 | 93.90 | n/a | n/a | 99.06 (+0.3%) | The A-shares mirror the C-shares exactly - a one-session collapse from hold to no signal with a flat twelve-week view. Held on the stop, watched as a pair. Ops: HOLD cv67 -> NO TRADE cv0, one print; Target_12Week 99.06 = +0.3%, inside the tick (c) threshold; valuation permanently NA (negative book anchor), technical-only; trail held at 93.90 (chandelier computes to 93.30 - lower). |
| STZ | Constellation Brands Cl A | 135.76 | HOLD | 135.76 | 126.89 | n/a | n/a | 112.21 (-17.3%) | Constellation Brands drops out of the fired sell set tonight - the sell label lapsed and there is nothing live to act on, even though the position remains broken. It stays a carried close-out. Ops: STRONG SELL - REDUCE cv65 -> AVOID cv57, adjusted 56 after the -1 bias, so no live label to admit; still -7.0% below EMA200 146.02 with a -17.3% 12wk view; / - 0.003% of the book; stop held at 126.89; will re-enter the dispose queue only on a fresh REDUCE print or a close below the stop. |
| KR | Kroger Co | 56.73 | HOLD | 56.73 | 54.87 | n/a | n/a | 44.99 (-20.7%) | Kroger has printed AVOID for five straight sessions with a twelve-week view 21% below the current price, yet it is also the cheapest name in the book on intrinsic value - the only holding that screens as outright undervalued with the quality checks in mind. At it is far too small to take a decision slot either way. Carried. Ops: AVOID cv63, no actionable sell label; -12.0% below EMA200 64.50, Target_12Week 44.99 = -20.7%; UNDERVALUED, MoS +0.06 - one of only two in the book alongside ALLY; /; stop held at 54.87; part of the dust cohort described in Systemic finding 2. |
| CB | Chubb Ltd | 350.31 | HOLD | 350.31 | 341.96 | n/a | 363.76 (+3.8%) | 366.37 (+4.6%) | Chubb keeps printing a low-conviction hold with a modestly positive twelve-week view - no decision either way. It is the fifth-largest line, so it is worth naming rather than leaving unmentioned. Ops: HOLD cv65 -> cv45, conviction halved in one session but the label is unchanged and no tick fires (Target_12Week 366.37 is +4.6%, above the tick (c) threshold); PROFIT_ARMED spurious (position -0.86%); MoS -0.03 is effectively fair value; trail held at 341.96 (chandelier computes to 336.86 - lower). |
| COF | Capital One Financial Corp | 217.76 | HOLD | 217.76 | 209.77 | n/a | n/a | 253.89 (+16.6%) | Capital One has no live signal for a second session but the position is up 6% with the model seeing 17% more over twelve weeks - the engine is quiet, the position is not broken. Held. Ops: 2x consecutive NO TRADE cv0 satisfies tick (d), but tick (c) does NOT fire (Target_12Week 253.89 = +16.6%) and the row is not PROFIT_ARMED (Gain_ATR 2.43, under the 3.0 threshold), so there is no armed profit-take to trigger; trail held at 209.77 (chandelier computes to 207.34 - lower). |
| M | Macy's Inc | 25.40 | HOLD | 25.40 | 24.57 | n/a | 27.34 (+7.6%) | 30.54 (+20.2%) | Macy's recovered its hold signal after two blank sessions and is up 9% with the model seeing 20% more over twelve weeks. Small position, nothing to do beyond stepping the stop up. Ops: NO TRADE -> HOLD cv61; Gain_ATR 2.22, not armed (under the 3.0 threshold) and no Exit_Warning printed; trail raised 24.30 -> 24.57 (engine 2.0x ATR chandelier). |
| LEN | Lennar Corp Cl A | 88.18 | HOLD | 88.18 | 82.64 | n/a | n/a | 79.14 (-10.3%) | Lennar sits 10% below its long-term trend with a twelve-week view 10% lower still, in a housing complex that NVR's earnings miss confirms is broadly broken. At under it is far too small to take a decision slot. Carried. Ops: AVOID cv52 -> NO TRADE cv0; -10.1% below EMA200 98.07, Target_12Week 79.14 = -10.3%; /; stop held at 82.64; part of the dust cohort in Systemic finding 2 (LEN + LEN-B + STZ + KR + NVR = combined, 0.03% of the book). |
| LEN-B | Lennar Corp Cl B | 86.48 | HOLD | 86.48 | 81.78 | n/a | n/a | 78.62 (-9.1%) | Lennar's B-shares carry the same broken housing setup as the A-shares plus a momentum divergence warning, on a 9-share position worth under Carried; not worth a slot. Ops: AVOID cv0 on NoSignal with Exit_Warning RSI_DIV; -8.2% below EMA200 94.19, Target_12Week 78.62 = -9.1%; the RallySell_BearTrend|sell cell that governed this name is this book's worst at -8 (hit_1w.125), a further argument against acting; /; stop held at 81.78. |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
76 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
0.006 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
46 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.