Recommendations
0 to acquire · 3 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| AAPL | Apple Inc | 304.91 | SELL 50% | 304.91 | 300.00 | 304.78 (-0.0%) | n/a | 304.47 (-0.1%) | Apple has printed NO TRADE for five straight sessions while its 12-week model view collapsed to — level with the close — so the forward case that justified the position is gone, and Jefferies cut the stock to underperform on 11-Aug with a target after supply-chain checks showed the all-glass iPhone was cancelled on yield. Valuation agrees the price is stretched: GROWTH_PRICED_IN with the DCF anchor at against a quote. We cut half the remaining stake and keep the rest on a tight stop. ADR-0012 profit-take: PROFIT_ARMED (T12_Progress 100.1%) + 2 fire ticks — (c) dead 12wk ( < 1.02x close) and (d) 5 consecutive NO TRADE prints -> profit_take_2 tier = 50%. MoS -2.83 is just inside the -3 escalation line so no tier bump. Second cut in two sessions (30% filled 08-11 @); cumulative 65% of the seed lot. Stop held at. 1wk uses f=0.30 with Target_12Week substituted for the missing Target_Price (NO TRADE row prints no risk objective). 12wk exceeds the DCF anchor. · news |
| BAC | Bank of America Corp | 64.00 | SELL 30% | 64.00 | 62.29 | 65.65 (+2.6%) | 69.49 (+8.6%) | 76.25 (+19.1%) | Bank of America has run from to in four sessions and is now 4.3 ATR above cost with RSI at 70.3 and a bearish RSI divergence printing — the classic point to bank part of a winner rather than give it back. The bull case is intact (12-week view still), so this is a one-third trim into strength, not an exit, and the stop on the rest moves up. ADR-0012 profit-take: PROFIT_ARMED (Gain_ATR 4.3) + 1 fire tick (a) RSI_DIV -> profit_take_1 tier = 30%. G1 softening does NOT apply — the row prints AnticipationUp_VCP at conviction 70, not a fresh BreakoutUp_*/MomentumContinuation_* at >=80 — so the divergence tick fires normally. Last night's GTC buy-limit @ is WITHDRAWN in the same breath (08-11 low, never touched; the row no longer prints a buy trigger) — logged separately as status=withdrawn. Flip-flop acknowledged: this name has oscillated STRONG BUY-ADD cv90 / HOLD 61 / HOLD 56 / STRONG BUY-ADD 88 / HOLD 70 across five sessions. Stop raised ->. Give-up on the trimmed slice is the modeled +19.1% 12wk upside. · news |
| GOOGL | Alphabet Inc Cl A | 343.80 | SELL 30% | 343.80 | 319.70 | 351.03 (+2.1%) | 367.90 (+7.0%) | 321.78 (-6.4%) | Alphabet closed, decisively through our stop, and its 12-week model view has flipped negative to (-6.4%) — the exact stop-break-plus-negative-forward-view combination this book is supposed to act on immediately rather than watch bleed. The news confirms it: Demis Hassabis stepped down as DeepMind CEO and Jeff Dean left the same week, with 2026 AI capex guided up to -205bn. We cut 30% and reset the risk line. Applies L2/L3 and book note US-1 (act on the first EOD the stop-break + neg-12wk combo triggers; do not wait for a SELL-REDUCE label). Also armed-and-fired under ADR-0012 (PROFIT_ARMED + tick (c) dead 12wk). The standing news-overlay override 'GOOGL invalidated when close below 345' is now INVALIDATED for the first time. Ranked into slot 3 ahead of MCO's larger dollar bleed on the L2/L3/US-1 priority — deviation from the pure dollar-bleed order is deliberate and stated. Breached stop is retired; new stop (the model line) is legitimate only because size is being cut alongside it. Note the internal contradiction in the forward view — 4wk target (+7.0%) against a 12wk of -6.4%. · news |
| AXP | American Express Co | 340.81 | NO ACTION | 340.81 | 334.75 | n/a | n/a | 340.08 (-0.2%) | Fired (PROFIT_ARMED + tick (c) dead 12wk vs close) and #3 by dollar bleed at, but DEMOTED on a news override: AXP raised FY26 revenue growth guidance to 10% on a Q2 beat (6bn revenue +10% YoY, EPS vs) and is +8.7% over the past month. The sell case also weakened rather than matured — 08-11 printed STRONG SELL - REDUCE (Sell_Rank 3) and 08-12 reverted to NO TRADE. Mandatory candidate next EOD if the 12wk stays dead. · news |
| MCO | Moody's Corp | 476.48 | NO ACTION | 476.48 | 461.27 | n/a | n/a | 475.55 (-0.2%) | Fired at the 50% tier (PROFIT_ARMED + tick (c) dead 12wk < 1.02x close, + tick (d) 3 consecutive NO TRADE prints). bleed, #4 in the queue — crowded out of the <=3 cap by GOOGL's stop-break priority. Already cut 30% on 08-11 @. Mandatory next EOD. |
| DVA | DaVita Inc | 178.34 | NO ACTION | 178.34 | 174.64 | n/a | n/a | 129.40 (-27.4%) | Fired at 50% (PROFIT_ARMED + dead 12wk, -27.4% vs close, + 5 consecutive NO TRADE). Worst holding in the book at -24.1%, and the 12wk view has fallen -> -> 129 across five sessions. Held back only because RSI 22.4 is a washout print; a bounce would be a better exit. Mandatory next EOD regardless. |
| SIRI | Sirius XM Holdings Inc | 28.51 | NO ACTION | 28.51 | 28.60⚠ | n/a | n/a | 28.81 (+1.1%) | Closed, 0.31% under the stop — a breach, but not a decisive one — with a second consecutive RallySell_BearTrend print (Sell_Rank 1). The model's 88.5% REDUCE does NOT survive: RallySell_BearTrend|sell is the book's worst actionable cell at bias -8 (n=8, hit_1w.125), which requires raw conviction >=75; SIRI prints 60. What survives is the ADR-0012 tier-1 profit-take (PROFIT_ARMED + dead 12wk vs 1.02x close) = 30%. Stop held at, breach carried. |
| ALLY | Ally Financial Inc | 43.95 | NO ACTION | 43.95 | 42.63 | n/a | n/a | 41.34 (-5.9%) | Fired at the 50% tier (PROFIT_ARMED + dead 12wk + 4 consecutive NO TRADE) but scaled DOWN one tier to 30% because valuation reads UNDERVALUED (MoS +0.05) — selling cheap, trim the minimum. |
| OXY | Occidental Petroleum Corp | 59.06 | NO ACTION | 59.06 | 55.17 | n/a | n/a | 62.12 (+5.2%) | Fired at tier 1 (PROFIT_ARMED, Gain_ATR 5.22 / +20.8% — the book's 2nd-best holding — plus tick (a) RSI_DIV on a second consecutive AVOID/NoSignal print) and then ESCALATED one tier to 50% by valuation: MoS_FV -3.07 clears the -3 amplify line (FAIR_VALUE label, DCF anchor but the EPV/V-P blend reads the quote as 3 sigma rich). /. Deferred on slot arithmetic only; mandatory next EOD. Stop raised to (2.0x ATR chandelier). |
| CVX | Chevron Corp | 196.66 | NO ACTION | 196.66 | 187.99 | n/a | n/a | 208.11 (+5.8%) | Fired on tick (b): conviction collapsed in one session while the signal flipped FailedBreakdown_Up to BreakoutUp_20D. Armed at Gain_ATR 5.61 (+16.2%, the book's 2nd-best holding). G1 does not protect it — the breakout prints conviction 33, far below the >=80 bar. Small residual line; stop raised ->. |
| GOOG | Alphabet Inc Cl C | 343.00 | NO ACTION | 343.00 | 320.20 | n/a | n/a | 322.62 (-5.9%) | Same underlying and same case as the GOOGL card (stop breached, 12wk = -5.9%), but only /. Deferred purely on slot arithmetic; execute alongside GOOGL next EOD. Stop reset to with the Cl A line. |
| NYT | New York Times Co Cl A | 63.73 | NO ACTION | 63.73 | 58.50 | n/a | n/a | 43.62 (-31.6%) | Third consecutive STRONG SELL - REDUCE with the 12-week view at (-31.6% vs close) and conviction collapsing (tick (b)) on top of a dead 12wk (tick (c)) = 50% tier. Already halved on 08-11 @; the residual is /. RSI 32.7 argues against selling the low into a fourth print. Mandatory next EOD. |
| LLYVA | Liberty Live Group Ser A | 100.53 | NO ACTION | 100.53 | 95.44 | n/a | n/a | 102.09 (+1.6%) | Fired on a marginal tick (c) — 12wk sits just under 1.02x close. Valuation is NA for the Liberty trackers so no amplification either way. Low urgency; stop raised ->. |
| VRSN | VeriSign Inc | 287.63 | NO ACTION | 287.63 | 276.41 | n/a | n/a | 315.14 (+9.6%) | Fired on tick (d) only (5 consecutive NO TRADE prints); the 12wk view is still alive (+9.6%), so tier 1 = 30%. +12.2% and Gain_ATR 3.68. Tiny line; stop held. |
| NUE | Nucor Corp | 271.95 | NO ACTION | 271.95 | 259.19 | n/a | n/a | 346.49 (+27.4%) | Fired on tick (d) (2 consecutive NO TRADE) with the 12wk still strongly alive at (+27.4%), so tier 1 = 30%. Best holding in the book at +23.2% / Gain_ATR 7.0. Stop held — trailing is the better tool here than trimming. |
| KO | Coca-Cola Co | 86.48 | HOLD | 86.48 | 83.81 | n/a | n/a | 94.18 (+8.9%) | The only bullish actionable row in the book tonight — BUY - ADD, PullbackBuy_VWAP, conviction 73, Buy_Rank 1, entry — and it falls 3 points short of the acquire floor once valuation is applied: 73 - 10 (MoS -2.09, GROWTH_PRICED_IN, DCF anchor against an quote) - 1 (PullbackBuy_VWAP|buy cell bias, n=7) = 62 vs the 65 bar. Armed but NOT fired (12wk is alive, conviction rose, so the correct action is a trail-raise, not a trim. Stop held (the 2.0x ATR chandelier at is looser). Re-arms as an ACQUIRE if conviction reaches 76+ or the valuation gap narrows. |
| KHC | Kraft Heinz Co | 24.65 | HOLD | 24.65 | 24.15 | n/a | n/a | 25.36 (+2.9%) | Armed, not fired: one NO TRADE print (not two) and the 12wk still sits above 1.02x close. A single flip to NO TRADE is deliberately NOT counted as a conviction-collapse tick (b) — on NO TRADE rows conviction prints 0 by construction, so tick (d) governs. Fires next EOD if it prints NO TRADE again. |
| COF | Capital One Financial Corp | 219.15 | HOLD | 219.15 | 210.47 | n/a | n/a | 254.90 (+16.3%) | Newly PROFIT_ARMED (Gain_ATR 3.23, +6.8%) with zero fire ticks — 12wk is strongly alive (+16.3%) and conviction is flat at 54. Mandatory trail-raise: ->. |
| CB | Chubb Ltd | 347.07 | HOLD | 347.07 | 341.96 | n/a | n/a | 355.84 (+2.5%) | Armed, not fired — 12wk clears 1.02x close by a hair and conviction improved. Stop held (chandelier is looser). Watch: one more point of 12wk erosion arms tick (c). |
| LLYVK | Liberty Live Group Ser C | 104.26 | HOLD | 104.26 | 99.36 | n/a | n/a | 106.96 (+2.6%) | Armed, not fired (12wk > 1.02x close). Stop raised ->. The Ser A line fired the same tick and sits in the deferred pool — the two tracker classes are diverging on a rounding error, which is noise, not signal. |
| DAL | Delta Air Lines Inc | 90.41 | HOLD | 90.41 | 88.93 | n/a | n/a | 104.54 (+15.6%) | Not armed and recovering — three sessions of NO TRADE resolved to HOLD at conviction 61 with the 12wk at (+15.6%). Stop raised ->. |
| M | Macy's Inc | 24.52 | HOLD | 24.52 | 24.57⚠ | n/a | n/a | 28.35 (+15.6%) | Monitor flagged a 0.20% stop undercut (vs) — not decisive, and the name is not PROFIT_ARMED, so no trim. Stop held at; a second close below it is an exit. / — immaterial either way. |
| KR | Kroger Co | 56.25 | HOLD | 56.25 | 54.87 | n/a | n/a | 44.07 (-21.7%) | Fifth consecutive AVOID with the 12wk at (-21.7%), and armed with a dead 12wk — but the line is /, so a 30% trim is. Not economically actionable; carried in prose rather than ledgered. Valuation reads UNDERVALUED (MoS +0.06), which argues the minimum tier anyway. |
| NVR | NVR Inc | 6429.96 | HOLD | 6429.96 | 6069.66 | n/a | n/a | 5943.03 (-7.6%) | Four sessions of STRONG SELL - REDUCE resolved to AVOID at conviction 50; armed with a dead 12wk (vs). — a 30% trim is one share. Stop raised -> instead. |
| STZ | Constellation Brands Cl A | 133.98 | HOLD | 133.98 | 128.06 | n/a | n/a | 113.01 (-15.7%) | Armed with a dead 12wk (, -15.7%) but the line is /. Stop raised ->. |
| LEN | Lennar Corp Cl A | 87.55 | HOLD | 87.55 | 82.64 | n/a | n/a | 79.46 (-9.2%) | Armed with a dead 12wk (, -9.2%); /. Stop held. |
| LEN-B | Lennar Corp Cl B | 86.20 | HOLD | 86.20 | 81.78 | n/a | n/a | 79.32 (-8.0%) | Same case as the Cl A line at / Stop held. |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
82 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
0.006 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
46 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.