Recommendations
2 to acquire · 6 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| CB | Chubb Ltd | 344.50 | SELL 30% | 344.50 | 341.96 | 344.58 (+0.0%) | n/a | 344.77 (+0.1%) | Trimming a third of Chubb because the model now sees the position going nowhere: the twelve-week view has flattened to against a close (+0.08%), the label has degraded to AVOID on a failed 20-day breakout, and the price sits just 0.74% above its stop -- the thinnest cushion in the book. The fundamental case still reads well (Q2 beat, net premiums +3.6%, a new $5bn buyback, Street fair value near) and that dissent is why this is a 30% trim rather than an exit, not a reason to keep waiting. OPS: ADR-0012 armed + 1 tick (c) -> profit_take_1 30%; ledgered optional/mandatory-next-EOD on 08-12, L3 closes it. MoS -0.03 so no valuation tier bump. Model Stop_Price is a short-side level above the close -- ignored; long stop held. 4,913 of, post-trade 11,464. · news |
| SIRI | Sirius XM Holdings Inc | 27.99 | SELL 30% | 27.99 | 28.60⚠ | 27.60 (-1.4%) | n/a | 26.68 (-4.7%) | Cutting 30% because the risk line has been broken for three sessions running and the position has never been reduced: SiriusXM has closed below its stop three consecutive days and the twelve-week view is negative at. The business is genuinely improving -- best Q2 subscriber result in four years, record-low 1.4% churn, raised full-year guidance -- but consensus fair value at says the market has already paid for that, and a better business the tape keeps rejecting is a trim case, not a hold. OPS: L2 stop-break basis; ADR-0012 armed + tick (c) corroborates -> 30%. Signal route DEAD: STRONG SELL - REDUCE cv60 on RallySell_BearTrend, the book's worst actionable cell (-8, n=9, hit_1w.125 but hit_4w 1.00) -> adj 52 < 65 floor, which is why we take 30% and NOT the printed 88.52% portion. Mitigation: ex-div on 08-10 = 0.94% of price, so ~half the 2.13% breach is mechanical. Stop HELD at, never loosened; a 4th consecutive close below escalates to the 50% tier. 7,501 of, post-trade 17,502. · news |
| NYT | New York Times Co Cl A | 64.13 | SELL 88.52% | 64.13 | 59.62 | 57.55 (-10.3%) | n/a | 42.19 (-34.2%) | Closing out the New York Times position. This is the one name tonight where the technical case, the trend and the news all point the same way: a stable STRONG SELL across all four snapshots, a close below the 200-day average, and a twelve-week view of -- 34% below today's price and the most negative in the book. The news confirms it structurally: Q2 digital subscriber adds missed at ~280k versus ~295k expected and slowed from 310k, the stock fell 13% in a session and is down 12.8% over four weeks, and declining Google referral traffic is eroding the growth story the software-like multiple depends on. OPS: only signal-originated sell tonight and the only one clearing the 65 floor (68 - 1 = 67). Took the 3rd slot over GOOGL and KHC despite ranking 6:1 lower on dollar bleed, because both of those are NoTrade+tick(c) cards and NoTrade|sell grades 0.000 at 4wk over n=26 -- stated deviation from dollar-bleed ranking. MoS -1.45 so no tier bump; DCF says fairly priced and is overruled by the signal, not followed. RSI 34.0 counter-argument overruled: signal strengthened cv55 -> cv68 and the 12wk deteriorated. 1wk -10.3% is a mechanical f=0.30 interpolation off a 12-week target, not a one-week forecast. Stop held (model's is looser). 1,409 of, residual 183. · news |
| AXP | American Express Co | 343.65 | NO ACTION | — | 334.75 | n/a | n/a | 344.45 | Armed + ticks (c)+(d) and #1 by dollar bleed for a third straight night, but the 08-12 escalation commitment named two triggers and neither fired: the 12wk is = +0.23% (flat, not negative) and the close sits 2.66% above the stop. The stronger new reason to wait: the case is entirely NoTrade-driven (3x NO TRADE, RSI 51.8, price above EMA200) and NoTrade|sell grades 0.000 at four weeks over n=26. Trigger unchanged: executes at the next EOD if the 12wk turns negative or breaks. Mandatory candidate at the next EOD. |
| GOOGL | Alphabet Inc Cl A | 346.36 | NO ACTION | — | 319.70 | n/a | n/a | 315.72 | Armed + tick (c), 12wk (-8.85%). Cut 30% @ on 08-13 and closed tonight at -- unchanged. Same 0-for-26-at-4wk NoTrade cell; re-cutting the same line every other session on the same tick is not risk management. Overlay's 'invalidated below 345' override is re-armed but carries no delta. Long stop held. Mandatory candidate at the next EOD. |
| KHC | Kraft Heinz Co | 25.38 | NO ACTION | — | 24.15 | n/a | n/a | 25.71 | Armed + tick (c) but marginal: 12wk vs the 1.02x line of -- fails by 0.7% of margin, the same three-pennies situation CB was in last night. Flat at cost (+0.04%), RSI 50.1, above EMA200. Wait one more print. Mandatory candidate at the next EOD. |
| DVA | DaVita Inc | 179.17 | NO ACTION | — | 174.64 | n/a | n/a | 123.04 | Armed + tick (c) (12wk, -31.3%) + 4x NO TRADE. Worst holding at -23.7%. Third deferral on the same ground: RSI 25.0 is a washout print and the name ROSE -> this session. Selling the low of a -24% position into a 25 RSI on the 0-for-26 cell is the trade the scorecard says not to make. Stop held, 2.6% below the close. Mandatory candidate at the next EOD. |
| KR | Kroger Co | 57.23 | NO ACTION | 57.23 | 54.87 | n/a | n/a | 45.33 (-20.8%) | Highest adjusted conviction on the sell side tonight -- STRONG SELL - REDUCE cv75, Sell_Rank 1, adj 74, close far below EMA200, 12wk (-20.8%) -- and it gets no slot because the whole position is / = 0.006% of NAV. Dollar-bleed ranking doing its job. Ledgered so the counterfactual grader prices the omission. News mildly positive (new chief e-commerce officer, online sales +19% YoY, some analysts see ~20% undervaluation on the AI Shopping Assistant) against -6.8% YTD and margin pressure; ex-div on 08-14. Stop held (model's is looser). Mandatory candidate at the next EOD. |
| GOOG | Alphabet Inc Cl C | 343.94 | NO ACTION | — | 320.20 | n/a | n/a | 314.10 | Same underlying and same case as the Cl A line. Execute alongside GOOGL whenever it executes. Stop held. Mandatory candidate at the next EOD. |
| COF | Capital One Financial Corp | 223.83 | HOLD | 223.70 | 214.93 | n/a | n/a | 263.89 (+18.0%) | Armed (Gain_ATR 4.27, +9.12%) + tick (a) RSI_DIV at RSI 67.2, but G3 blocks the trim: bullish BreakoutUp_20D with a 12wk of (+17.9%), the second-best forward view in the book. That is cutting a winner. Trail raised -> instead. 50% tier would have been /. |
| NUE | Nucor Corp | 272.29 | HOLD | 272.29 | 259.99 | n/a | n/a | 344.03 (+26.3%) | Armed at Gain_ATR 8.38 / +23.35% -- the biggest gain in the book -- but G3 blocks: HOLD cv67 on FailedBreakdown_Up_20D with a 12wk of (+26.3%), the best in the book. Trail raised ->. 30% tier would have been /. |
| CVX | Chevron Corp | 197.70 | HOLD | 198.13 | 189.24 | n/a | n/a | 213.86 (+7.9%) | RSI_DIV present and armed at Gain_ATR 6.41 (+16.84%), but G3 blocks: the 12wk is (+8.2%) and the signal RECOVERED cv27 -> cv65 on AnticipationUp_VCP. Trail raised ->. |
| LLYVA | Liberty Live Group Ser A | 104.18 | ADD — QUEUED @103.06 | 103.06 | 98.09 | 105.24 (+2.1%) | 117.99 (+14.5%) | 109.98 (+6.7%) | Carrying forward the 08-12 add to Liberty Live at a higher limit. The signal has strengthened to the highest conviction in the book (83) on a volatility-contraction setup, but the stock ran 1.6% past the old limit, so the order is repriced to the model's current entry rather than left stranded below the market. OPS: provenance/queue rule -- do NOT republish the stale. New limit = printed Entry_Price, close is 0.45 ATR above (past the -0.25 no-chase line, so a limit stays the right instrument). Counterfactuals back this: no_chase_queue costs a median +3.00% at 1wk over n=14. Not a new ACQUIRE slot -- this is the pending 08-12 card. Stop raised ->. expires_on 2026-08-18. |
| LLYVK | Liberty Live Group Ser C | 107.87 | ADD — QUEUED @106.76 | 106.76 | 101.71 | 109.31 (+2.4%) | 121.92 (+14.2%) | 114.56 (+7.3%) | Same underlying and same case as the Ser A line -- carrying the 08-12 add forward at a repriced limit after the stock ran 1.8% past. OPS: new limit = printed Entry_Price, close is 0.44 ATR above. HOLD cv83, AnticipationUp_VCP. Valuation NA (tracker stock, FV computes negative) so val_adj 0 and the quality gate is off. Not a new ACQUIRE slot. Stop raised ->. expires_on 2026-08-18. |
| AAPL | Apple Inc | 305.26 | SELL 50% | 302.25 | 300.00 | n/a | n/a | 295.85 (-2.1%) | Carried from the 08-12 verdict, still unfilled at the executor. AAPL closed, +1.00% ABOVE the card price -- the lag has helped. Still 4x NO TRADE with a negative 12wk. Not re-issued tonight; no stacking. |
| BAC | Bank of America Corp | 64.09 | SELL 30% | 64.81 | 62.54 | n/a | n/a | 76.60 (+18.2%) | Carried from 08-12, still unfilled. BAC closed, -1.11% BELOW the card price -- the lag cost on the slice. Conviction continued to collapse 45 -> NO TRADE cv0. Not re-issued; no stacking. |
| MCO | Moody's Corp | 488.42 | SELL 50% | 488.42 | 461.27 | n/a | n/a | 492.04 (+0.7%) | Carried from 08-12, still unfilled. MCO closed, +2.21% ABOVE the card price -- past the 1.5% gap threshold, so the reference is REPRICED to per L8. Still 4x NO TRADE with a dead 12wk. Not re-issued; no stacking. |
| KO | Coca-Cola Co | 87.42 | HOLD | 87.42 | 84.68 | n/a | n/a | 95.01 (+8.7%) | HOLD cv45 on FailedBreakdown_Up_20D, 12wk (+8.7%). Trail raised ->. |
| OXY | Occidental Petroleum Corp | 57.70 | HOLD | — | 55.17 | n/a | n/a | 61.41 | NO TRADE cv0, 12wk (+6.4%), Gain_ATR 5.33. No printed stop on a NoTrade row -- stop held. |
| DAL | Delta Air Lines Inc | 91.31 | HOLD | 91.31 | 90.14 | n/a | n/a | 104.75 (+14.7%) | HOLD cv68 on FailedBreakdown_Up_20D with the best forward view among the HOLDs, 12wk (+14.7%). The only held row NOT printing PROFIT_ARMED. Trail raised ->. |
| VRSN | VeriSign Inc | 287.15 | HOLD | 287.15 | 276.41 | n/a | n/a | 306.11 (+6.6%) | HOLD cv51, 12wk (+6.6%), Gain_ATR 3.87. Model's stop is looser -- held. |
| M | Macy's Inc | 23.84 | HOLD | 23.84 | 23.35 | n/a | n/a | 25.94 (+8.8%) | HOLD cv56 on FailedBreakdown_Up_20D, 12wk (+8.8%). Model's is looser -- held. 08-12 breach resolved, close back above. |
| NVR | NVR Inc | 6375.00 | HOLD | 6375.00 | 6069.66 | n/a | n/a | 5888.27 (-7.6%) | AVOID cv57 on FailedBreakout_Down_20D, 12wk (-7.6%). / -- immaterial. Model's is a short-side level above the close; long stop held. |
| STZ | Constellation Brands Cl A | 136.35 | HOLD | — | 128.06 | n/a | n/a | 118.62 | NO TRADE cv0, 12wk (-13.0%), below EMA200. / -- immaterial. Stop held. |
| LEN | Lennar Corp Cl A | 87.54 | HOLD | — | 82.64 | n/a | n/a | 79.90 | NO TRADE cv0, 12wk (-8.7%), below EMA200. / Stop held. |
| LEN-B | Lennar Corp Cl B | 85.82 | HOLD | — | 81.78 | n/a | n/a | 79.15 | Same case as the Cl A line at / Stop held. |
| JEF | Jefferies Financial Group | 55.86 | WATCH | 55.86 | — | n/a | n/a | 56.41 (+1.0%) | never seeded. WATCH cv64 on FailedBreakdown_Up_20D -- the best unheld read in weeks, but WATCH is not actionable and 64 sits one point under the 65 floor before the -2 valuation haircut (OVERVALUED_VS_RI, MoS -0.417) takes it to 62. 12wk (+1.0%) is not worth a first entry. |
| LPX | Louisiana-Pacific Corp | 74.14 | WATCH | — | — | n/a | n/a | 70.35 | never seeded. NO TRADE cv0 with a negative 12wk (, -5.1%), below EMA200, and the worst valuation in the file (MoS -5.25). Not a candidate. |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
101 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
0.006 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
46 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.