Recommendations
0 to acquire · 3 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| AXP | American Express Co | 336.21 | SELL 50% | 336.21 | 334.75 | 338.99 (+0.8%) | n/a | 331.21 (-1.5%) | American Express has rolled over technically: the anchor close prints AVOID on a FailedBreakout_Down_20D — a failed push through the 20-day high that has flipped into distribution — and the model's twelve-week view has now turned outright negative at against a close. The position is 4.5% under cost and is the single largest dollar bleed in the book at 11.7% of NAV. The business is not the problem: Q2 net income rose to 11bn (diluted EPS vs), FY26 revenue-growth guidance was lifted to 10%, and the stock screens roughly 13% undervalued on those results — which is exactly why this is a half, not an exit. We are cutting the trend, not the franchise. OPS: 6th consecutive session this trim has been carried unfilled (L3/US-1 breach). Repriced -> (-1.83% > 1.5% gap threshold), provenance = anchor close (AVOID row prints Entry_Price == Close). execution deliberately set to "market" (NOT "next_open") — see the memory entry: paper_executor._EXEC_KINDS accepts only market|gtc_limit|gtc_stop, and every sell card written 08-12..08-14 used a non-canonical value and was silently dropped. FailedBreakout_Down_20D|sell bias -1 (n=40, hit_1w.457). Valuation MoS -0.46: amplify-only, no tier bump (needs <= -3). Stop HELD at on the retained; a decisive close below it takes the rest. AXP is rate-sensitive into FOMC minutes 08-19. · news |
| AAPL | Apple Inc | 305.59 | SELL 30% | 305.59 | 300.00 | 306.17 (+0.2%) | n/a | 293.00 (-4.1%) | Apple has printed NO TRADE for four consecutive sessions — the signal engine can find no coherent trend, momentum or volatility read — and the twelve-week projection sits at against a close, i.e. the model sees the next quarter going backwards. Sustained NO TRADE on a held position plus a negative forward view is a signal-based exit basis in its own right. Cutting against that, Rothschild & Co Redburn upgraded Apple to Buy on 17-Aug and raised its target from to; the tape ignored it (shares closed -0.19%), and the bear case is unchanged — 35x earnings, a forward PEG ~147% above the sector median, and a June quarter flattered by roughly two margin points of tariff refunds. We take a third off rather than the half we had queued: enough to respect a dead signal, little enough to stay long a name with a fresh street target. OPS: NEWS DEMOTION — carried 50% card cut to 30% on the Redburn upgrade (bounded application, demote-not-cancel). 6th session carried unfilled. Repriced -> (provenance = anchor close; a NoTrade row prints no Entry_Price). execution="market" per the executor bug fix. NoTrade|sell bias +1 (n=32) but that cell grades 0.000 at 4wk — hence the smaller tier. MoS -2.74 up-ranks but is inside the -3 line, so no tier bump. Stop HELD on the retained. 12wk vs DCF anchor -> no exceeds-DCF flag. · news |
| CB | Chubb Ltd | 340.86 | SELL 30% | 340.86 | 341.96⚠ | 343.20 (+0.7%) | n/a | 333.99 (-2.0%) | Chubb closed at, decisively through the trailing stop the book has carried on it, and the twelve-week projection has gone negative at. A stop break paired with a negative forward view is this book's cleanest exit trigger, and it fires here while the engine still prints NO TRADE. The underwriting story is intact — Q2 beat on higher underwriting and investment income with net premiums written up 3.6%, a fresh $5bn buyback authorisation, a dividend going ex on 11-Sep, and our own intrinsic work marks the shares as fractionally UNDERVALUED. So this is the minimum tier: we honour a broken risk line on 30% of the position and keep the other 70% of a franchise we still rate as fairly priced. OPS: 5th session carried unfilled. Learning L2 fires (stop-break + negative 12wk, no SELL-REDUCE label needed). Monitor flagged the breach at -0.32%. Repriced -> (provenance = anchor close). execution="market" per the executor bug fix. Valuation is UNDERVALUED (MoS 0.00) which under CLAUDE.md 9(b) argues the trim DOWN one tier — 30% is already the floor tier, so it is held there and explicitly not escalated. NoTrade|sell +1. Stop stays on the retained; a second close below takes another 30%. CB is rate/credit-sensitive into FOMC minutes 08-19. · news |
| KO | Coca-Cola Co | 86.98 | HOLD | 86.50 | 84.03 | 87.36 (+1.0%) | 89.37 (+3.3%) | 94.25 (+9.0%) | Coca-Cola was the only genuine buy candidate in the book tonight and it just misses. The setup is the good one: BUY - ADD at conviction 66, rank 1 on the buy board, sitting on a PullbackBuy_VWAP after a ~3% fade from the highs, with the news flow behind it — Q2 revenue +7% to 38bn, comparable EPS of beating, organic growth guidance lifted to 5%, and a wave of target increases into the -band. What stops us is price: our intrinsic work puts fair value far below the close, and that -2.08 margin-of-safety reading carries the maximum -10 valuation penalty, taking adjusted conviction to 55 against a floor of 65. We are not paying up for a defensive compounder ten points under the bar. Re-arms if it pulls back to the model entry with conviction holding. OPS: 66 + val_adj -10 (MoS -2.08 * 5, clamped) + PullbackBuy_VWAP|buy bias -1 (n=7, hit_1w.429, 4wk.000) = 55 < 65 floor. Also fails the no-chase bar: Entry_Distance_ATR -0.39 (past entry, beyond the -0.25 line) so it would have been QUEUED, not bought. Size modulator would have been 0.75x (-3 < MoS <= -1). Quality_Pass True (gate would have passed; moot, this is an ADD to a held line). Ex-dividend on 15-Sep. NOT queued — a sub-floor candidate does not get a GTC. · news |
| CVX | Chevron Corp | 202.70 | NO ACTION | 202.70 | 193.56 | 210.31 (+3.8%) | 227.53 (+12.2%) | 226.16 (+11.6%) | Chevron is the book's best performer at +19.8% and has reached the profit-protection zone — roughly 7.9 ATR above cost — while momentum quietly diverges from price. That combination normally banks a third of the position. It does not tonight only because three larger, loss-making lines rank ahead of it on capital at risk; the twelve-week view is still a healthy against a close, so nothing is broken here. OPS: ADR-0012 armed (Gain_ATR 7.89) + tick (a) RSI_DIV -> profit_take_1 = 30%. G1 softening does NOT apply (AnticipationUp_VCP is not a fresh BreakoutUp_*/MomentumContinuation_* at cv>=80), so the tick fires cleanly. Loses the 3rd DISPOSE slot on dollar-bleed ranking (vs CB). Ledgered optional so the counterfactual grader prices the omission — note optional_trim counterfactuals already run n=77 median wh_4w +2.81% [cost]. Trail. |
| OXY | Occidental Petroleum Corp | 59.04 | NO ACTION | 59.04 | 55.23 | 57.86 (-2.0%) | n/a | 63.94 (+8.3%) | Occidental is +20.7%, the book's second-best position, and its signal went from HOLD at conviction 62 to no readable signal at all in one session — a 62-point collapse. On a position this far in profit that is the deterioration that normally triggers banking a third. It is deferred on size, not on merit; the twelve-week view of against a close is still constructive. OPS: ADR-0012 armed (Gain_ATR 6.90) + tick (b) conviction -62 pts -> profit_take_1 = 30%. Loses the slot on dollar-bleed ranking. Ledgered optional for counterfactual grading. Trail. |
| COF | Capital One Financial Corp | 221.45 | NO ACTION | 221.45 | 218.60 | 224.78 (+1.5%) | n/a | 261.99 (+18.3%) | Capital One is +8.0% and in the profit-protection zone, and its read deteriorated from a STRONG SELL - REDUCE print into no signal at all. That is a 39-point conviction drop on a winner, which arms a partial profit-take. Deferred on size; the twelve-week projection of versus a close remains the second-best forward view in the book, so there is no urgency. OPS: ADR-0012 armed (Gain_ATR 3.48) + tick (b) conviction -> profit_take_1 = 30%. Caveat recorded: the 39 was a SELL-side conviction, so tick (b) is a weaker read here than on OXY. Loses the slot on dollar-bleed. Ledgered optional. Trail. Rate-sensitive into FOMC minutes 08-19. |
| MCO | Moody's Corp | 477.17 | NO ACTION | 477.17 | 461.27 | 486.71 (+2.0%) | n/a | 477.23 (+0.0%) | Moody's has printed NO TRADE four sessions running and its twelve-week projection is dead flat at against a close — twelve weeks of modelled return of essentially zero, on a position 2.3% under cost. The exit case is intact and this is first in line; it misses tonight's cut only on relative size. OPS: 6th session carried unfilled. Dollar bleed ranks 4th, just behind CB. Repriced -> (-2.30%). NoTrade|sell +1; MoS -1.00 up-ranks but no tier bump. TOP OF QUEUE for the 2026-08-18 EOD. Trail. |
| NYT | New York Times Co Cl A | 65.27 | NO ACTION | 65.27 | 60.57 | 66.58 (+2.0%) | n/a | 43.51 (-33.3%) | The New York Times is the book's worst forward view: a twelve-week projection of against a close, or -33%, on a position already 11.6% under cost and printing AVOID on a failed breakout. The near-exit was authorised five sessions ago and remains the right call; only position size keeps it out of tonight's three. OPS: 5th session carried unfilled. Dollar bleed ranks 7th. Repriced -> (+1.78% > 1.5%). FailedBreakout_Down_20D|sell bias -1. Trail. |
| SIRI | Sirius XM Holdings Inc | 29.13 | NO ACTION | 29.13 | 28.60 | 30.79 (+5.7%) | n/a | 27.67 (-5.0%) | Sirius XM has recovered back above the risk line it broke last week, closing, which un-fires the escalation that took this card to a half. The twelve-week view is still negative at and the engine still cannot read the name, so a partial trim stays warranted — but at the original third, not the escalated half. OPS: DE-ESCALATED 50% -> 30% (12,502 ->): the 08-14 escalation trigger ('4th consecutive close below ') has reversed, close now +1.83% above the stop. Repriced -> (+2.34%). 2 consecutive NO TRADE prints. Dollar bleed Trail. |
| DVA | DaVita Inc | 176.70 | NO ACTION | 176.70 | 174.64 | 180.23 (+2.0%) | n/a | 104.75 (-40.7%) | DaVita is the deepest loss in the book at -24.8% and carries a twelve-week projection of against a close — a modelled -41%. It has printed NO TRADE four sessions running and our intrinsic work now marks it the most expensive name we own relative to worth. Every input says reduce; it fails to make tonight's three purely because the position is small in dollar terms. The one counterweight is a washed-out RSI of 24.7, which argues for waiting for a bounce rather than selling the low. OPS: dollar bleed ranks 5th. MoS -3.35 is the only holding INSIDE the <= -3 line -> when this gets a slot the amplify rule bumps 50% -> 100%. FLAGGED: valuation-priority name for the next EOD. Trail. |
| DAL | Delta Air Lines Inc | 87.59 | NO ACTION | 87.59 | 90.14⚠ | 89.45 (+2.1%) | 93.80 (+7.1%) | 96.78 (+10.5%) | Delta has now closed below its trailing stop for a second consecutive session, and at the break has widened from noise into a real 1.1-ATR violation of the risk line. The escalation trigger written down last week has therefore fired. What holds it back from tonight's three is that the rest of the picture is not bearish at all: the setup is still a PullbackBuy_VWAP, and the twelve-week projection of is +10.5% above the close, so the standard stop-break exit test is only half-met. OPS: the 08-14 card committed to '30% trim / on a 2nd consecutive close below ' — that condition FIRED (08-14, 08-17). L2 does NOT fire independently (12wk is +10.5%, not negative). Dollar bleed ranks 6th. Stop HELD, NOT reset. FLAGGED: fired-trigger name for the next EOD. |
| GOOGL | Alphabet Inc Cl A | 344.00 | NO ACTION | 344.00 | 319.70 | 380.75 (+10.7%) | n/a | 309.49 (-10.0%) | Alphabet has printed NO TRADE for three straight sessions with a twelve-week projection of against a close, or -10%. The de-risk case is intact and unchanged from last week; it stays queued behind larger positions. OPS: 4th session deferred. Was already cut 30% at on 08-13 and has gone nowhere since (-0.58%). NoTrade|sell +1 but that cell grades 0.000 at 4wk — a caution against re-cutting the same line. Overlay's stale GOOGL override ('invalidated when close below 345') is now TRIPPED at, but the overlay is 44 days stale and carries no delta. Trail. |
| GOOG | Alphabet Inc Cl C | 341.45 | NO ACTION | 341.45 | 320.20 | 377.97 (+10.7%) | n/a | 306.62 (-10.2%) | The C-share mirrors GOOGL: three sessions of NO TRADE and a twelve-week projection of versus a close, -10%. Same case, trivial size. OPS: 4th session deferred. Dollar bleed Trail. |
| KHC | Kraft Heinz Co | 24.75 | NO ACTION | 24.75 | 24.15 | 26.87 (+8.6%) | n/a | 24.82 (+0.3%) | Kraft Heinz reads NO TRADE with a twelve-week projection of against a close — flat, not negative. The position is only 2.4% under cost. There is no real deterioration here, just an absence of anything to own. OPS: 4th session deferred. Tick (c) clears the dead-12wk line by 0.3% — marginal, and the name is not falling. Weakest of the carried cases; a candidate for outright withdrawal if the 12wk turns positive. Trail. |
| ALLY | Ally Financial Inc | 43.61 | NO ACTION | 43.61 | 43.26 | 44.83 (+2.8%) | n/a | 41.40 (-5.1%) | Ally prints AVOID on a failed breakout with a twelve-week projection of against a close, -5%, and sits 3.7% under cost. Against that, our intrinsic work marks it as modestly UNDERVALUED, which argues for the minimum tier and no more. Deferred on size. OPS: dollar bleed UNDERVALUED (MoS +0.05) argues the trim DOWN a tier under CLAUDE.md 9(b) — already at the 30% floor. FailedBreakout_Down_20D|sell -1. Trail. Rate-sensitive into FOMC minutes 08-19. |
| KR | Kroger Co | 56.07 | NO ACTION | 56.07 | 54.87 | 57.19 (+2.0%) | n/a | 44.40 (-20.8%) | Kroger carries a poor twelve-week projection of against a close, -21%, on a failed breakout — but the entire holding is worth six thousandths of one percent of the book. It is excluded on materiality, not on judgement, for a fourth session. OPS: structural exclusion, not a re-litigated call. Ledgered optional so the counterfactual grader prices it. Trail. |
| NUE | Nucor Corp | 272.68 | HOLD | 272.68 | 259.99 | 283.78 (+4.1%) | 286.73 (+5.2%) | 339.81 (+24.6%) | Nucor is the book's best percentage gain at +23.5% and its twelve-week projection of against a close is the strongest forward view we hold. It is deep in the profit zone but nothing has deteriorated — so the correct action is to tighten the risk line under it, not to sell any. OPS: ADR-0012 armed (Gain_ATR 7.39) with ZERO fire ticks -> mandatory trail-raise, not a trim. Stop HELD at; the scan's would LOWER the trail and is rejected. |
| VRSN | VeriSign Inc | 272.77 | HOLD | 272.77 | 276.41⚠ | 300.86 (+10.3%) | 290.38 (+6.5%) | 277.18 (+1.6%) | VeriSign closed, a shade under its stop, but the break is only 0.4 ATR and the twelve-week view is still marginally positive at on a position that is +6.4%. That is noise against a tight trail, not a broken thesis. Holding, with the stop unchanged. OPS: monitor breach -1.32%, NOT actioned (L2 needs stop-break AND negative 12wk; 12wk is +1.6%). Stop HELD; scan prints which would loosen it — rejected. Escalates on a decisive break. |
| M | Macy's Inc | 23.22 | HOLD | 23.22 | 23.35⚠ | 24.70 (+6.4%) | n/a | 23.80 (+2.5%) | Macy's is 0.6% under its stop on a 0.2-ATR wobble, flat against cost, with a mildly positive twelve-week view. The whole position is worth Nothing to do. OPS: monitor breach -0.56%, NOT actioned (sub-ATR noise, 12wk +2.5%). Trail. |
| LLYVA | Liberty Live Group Ser A | 101.89 | HOLD | 101.89 | 96.79 | 105.17 (+3.2%) | n/a | 108.68 (+6.7%) | The queued add filled — at and another 343 at — taking the holding to. The name has since gone quiet, printing NO TRADE, but the twelve-week projection of against a close still points 6.7% higher. Holding what we bought. OPS: RECONCILED — usbh-20260818-0001 and -0003 filled both the 08-13 and 08-14 GTC limits on the 08-18 executor run. Position. Conviction has collapsed post-fill; watch. Trail (2.0x ATR chandelier under the close). |
| LLYVK | Liberty Live Group Ser C | 105.70 | HOLD | 105.70 | 100.60 | 108.80 (+2.9%) | n/a | 113.34 (+7.2%) | The C-line add filled the same way — at plus 959 at, lifting the holding to. Signal has gone flat but the twelve-week view of against a close is still 7.2% higher. Holding. OPS: RECONCILED — usbh-20260818-0002 and -0004. Position. Conviction post-fill; watch. Trail (2.0x ATR chandelier). |
| LEN | Lennar Corp Cl A | 86.54 | HOLD | 86.54 | 82.64 | 88.27 (+2.0%) | 91.64 (+5.9%) | 79.45 (-8.2%) | Lennar holds at conviction 62 on a failed-breakdown reversal, barely under cost.. No action. OPS: trail. |
| LEN-B | Lennar Corp Cl B | 84.80 | HOLD | 84.80 | 81.78 | 86.50 (+2.0%) | 89.73 (+5.8%) | 78.66 (-7.2%) | The B-line mirrors Lennar A at conviction 62.. No action. OPS: trail. |
| STZ | Constellation Brands Cl A | 130.56 | HOLD | 130.56 | 128.06 | 138.63 (+6.2%) | 139.37 (+6.7%) | 114.14 (-12.6%) | Constellation recovered from no-signal to a HOLD at conviction 62 on a failed-breakdown reversal.. No action. OPS: trail. |
| NVR | NVR Inc | 6298.83 | HOLD | 6298.83 | 6069.66 | 6424.81 (+2.0%) | n/a | 5775.59 (-8.3%) | NVR prints AVOID with a twelve-week projection 8.3% below the close, on worth Too small to act on. OPS: trail. |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
114 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
0.006 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
46 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.