Recommendations
2 to acquire · 0 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| TSM | Taiwan Semiconductor (ADR) | 451.79 | BUY | 451.79 | 438.91 | 467.25 (+3.4%) | 503.31 (+11.4%) | 538.11 (+19.1%) | First of the seed. TSM is a stable-and-strengthening STRONG BUY (BUY x3 -> STRONG BUY, conviction on a FailedBreakdown_Up_20D reversal caught AT ENTRY (RSI 54.6, EntDist ~0 -- not a chase), F-Score 9 (best quality in book). News confirms: Citi raised PT to NT (Buy) on sustained AI demand and TSMC hiking leading-edge (7nm & below) prices 5-10%; earnings 07-16. NA_CCY valuation (ADR -- val blind, val_adj 0, scorecard 0), adj 76 clears the 65 floor comfortably. Sized 95.34% x x 20% buy-pct =, size_mod 1.0. Execute at the 07-08 open (L8); price is the 07-06 close-ref -- reprice if the open gaps >1.5%. Measured first tranche into the FOMC-minutes/CPI window (overlay: stage adds between rate events); ~71% kept dry. · news |
| AMD | Advanced Micro Devices | 552.05 | BUY | 552.05 | 527.04 | 577.62 (+4.6%) | 637.29 (+15.4%) | 786.67 (+42.5%) | Stable STRONG BUY x4 (conviction on a FailedBreakdown_Up_20D reversal at entry (RSI 57, EntDist 0). News confirms and matches the signal: AMD +8.3% Mon 07-06 recovering an ~11% late-week drop (the failed breakdown the signal caught); Goldman PT Wells Fargo; Advancing AI event 07-22/23. Valuation GROWTH_PRICED_IN, MoS_FV -17.1 -> bounded val_adj -10 lands adj at 66 (clears floor by +1). The FV anchor is a broken hyper-growth artifact (FV/sh vs; DCF for a 45% grower) -- the systemic note stands; expressed conservatively via size_mod 0.5. 12wk 786.67 EXCEEDS the DCF anchor -- projection assumes growth beyond priced-in; 4wk 637.29 Goldman Sized 95.34% x x 20% x 0.5 =. Execute at 07-08 open (L8), price is 07-06 close-ref, reprice on >1.5% gap. · news |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
0 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one.
0.000 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
24 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.