Recommendations
0 to acquire · 0 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| AMD | Advanced Micro Devices | 516.11 | HOLD | 516.08 | 475.88 | 545.39 (+5.7%) | 613.71 (+18.9%) | 735.46 (+42.5%) | HOLD the 172-sh AMD position (filled 07-08 @ 516.075, now flat). AMD prints BUY cv71 on the reliable PullbackBuy_VWAP cell (Buy_Rank #1, RSI 51, not extended) -- still bullish but faded from STRONG BUY 76. News confirms-hold: Goldman PT (Buy), Wells Fargo Citi upside-catalyst watch, Advancing AI event 07-22/23; YTD +131%, the recent -5%/month dip is the failed breakdown the entry caught. An ADD is DECLINED: adj conviction 71 -10 (GROWTH_PRICED_IN val haircut) = 61 < the 65 floor, and the overlay bars new leverage into the 07-08 FOMC-minutes print. STOP RESET 527..88: the 527.04 was computed off the un-filled 552.05 projected entry and sat ABOVE the actual 516.075 fill (nonsensical for a long) -- adopt the model's post-fill stop (-7.8% risk). 12wk 735.46 exceeds the DCF anchor (growth beyond priced-in). Not a sell (bullish, flat, above stop, +42% 12wk). · news |
| TSM | Taiwan Semiconductor (ADR) | 432.57 | HOLD | 438.02 | 419.90 | 447.77 (+2.2%) | 483.25 (+10.3%) | 501.74 (+14.5%) | HOLD the 422-sh TSM position (filled 07-08 @ 438.02, now -1.24%). Signal collapsed STRONG BUY 76 -> WATCH cv49 in one session on FailedBreakdown_Up_20D (the L1-weak chase family fading exactly as the learning predicts) -- deteriorating, but NOT a sell: L2 needs a stop-break + negative-12wk, and TSM is ABOVE its stop with a strongly positive 12wk (501.74, +16%); WATCH != SELL-REDUCE; NA_CCY val is blind (val_adj 0). News confirms-hold: Citi PT NT (Buy), Barclays OW ->earnings 07-16 (EPS +52% YoY expected), 52W high on 06-30 -- the fade is technical, not fundamental; 07-16 is a catalyst-aware hold event (>5d out). Bought 1 day ago at a favorable below-ref fill; hold on the model stop. STOP RESET 438..90: the 438.91 was computed off the un-filled 451.79 projected entry; adopt the model's post-fill stop (-4.1% risk). · news |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
2 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
0.000 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
24 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.