Recommendations
1 to acquire · 0 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMD | Advanced Micro Devices, Inc | 559.82 | BUY — QUEUED @553.87 | 553.87 | 480.25 | 598.05 (+8.0%) | 701.12 (+26.6%) | 648.63 (+17.1%) | AMD has printed four straight bullish signals and passes our quality screen; we keep waiting to buy at the model's own entry price rather than chase a close at the day's high. The rally remains sector-wide, not AMD-specific. OPERATIONAL: carried 09-17 STRONG BUY card re-issued (Q1: no written withdraw line fired; cv78 >= 65, close > EMA50 491.65; BUY - ANTICIPATE read as bullish-family), repriced to live Entry_Price 553.87 (range 547.74-560.01), limit 1.06% below the 559.82 close (engine's buy-stop sits below market = chase). held at (no upsizing on a conviction fade): defined risk = 0.74% of book (S). R:R 2.00:1 (V4); 12wk 648.63 > entry (S7). val_adj 0 per P (DCF 171.74 broken), size x0.5. f=0.30 (calib -0.226). Original expiry 09-22 kept. Withdraw: cv < 65, label leaves bullish family, close < EMA50, or expiry. · news |
| NVDA | NVIDIA Corporation | 222.27 | HOLD | 222.27 | 211.10 | 225.62 (+1.5%) | 233.44 (+5.0%) | 226.45 (+1.9%) | Nvidia reclaimed every moving average and the line that cancelled the pending trim, so we hold the full position and tighten the stop to the model's own level. OPERATIONAL: stop 209.61 -> 211.10 (engine Stop_Price, 2.00xATR clearance, U2 pass). PROFIT_ARMED at -2.00% discarded (U4). W2: +1.34% vs +3.50% median, lagging. Triggers: close < 211.10 -> sell 30%; close < EMA200 ~202.21 -> full exit. peak_stop 221.79. |
| ASML | ASML Holding NV | 1679.92 | HOLD | 1679.92 | 1622.58 | n/a | n/a | 1426.84 (-15.1%) | ASML moved further above its stop, so no exit basis remains, though the model still shows no directional signal for it. We hold the small position on its stop. OPERATIONAL: NoTrade cv0 x5; R needs a second leg. Stop 1,622.58 unchanged, clearance now 1.08xATR. 1wk/4wk n/a (no Target_Price, U8). PROFIT_ARMED at -8.05% discarded (U4). Trigger: close < 1,622.58 -> full exit of. |
| TSM | Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing | 434.67 | HOLD | 434.67 | 415.50 | 440.42 (+1.3%) | 453.84 (+4.4%) | 434.45 (-0.1%) | TSMC prints the strongest hold signal in the book and sits above all its moving averages. We hold the small stub on the model's stop. OPERATIONAL: HOLD cv86 ->. Stop 415.38 -> 415.50 (engine line, 2.00xATR). T5 stub, hold-or-exit-whole. Trigger: close < 415.50 -> full exit of. |
| — | Micron Technology, Inc. | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | Micron jumped to a strong-buy signal and passes our quality screen, but this is its first bullish print, coming on the fourth day of a sector-wide rally. We wait for a second confirming print. OPERATIONAL: Q4 FAIL (W64 -> SB86 single print). adj 86--10 = 70 (scorer bias -, clears the floor either way. R:R 2.27:1, stop 0.88xATR, 12wk > entry, Buy_Rank 1. Re-arm: second consecutive BUY/SB at the 09-21 EOD with adj >= 65 -> ACQUIRE at that row's Entry_Price. FQ4 print 09-30. |
| — | Qualcomm Incorporated | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | Qualcomm fell nearly 6% on a day the sector rallied, giving up its entire morning gain, and its adjusted conviction is well below our threshold. We pass. OPERATIONAL: adj 68--10 = 52 (scorer -, below 65 either way. Q4 passes (B63 -> B68) but Q full-session rejection (open 191.61, close 177.72 near low 175.97). val_adj - applied (DCF usable, P). |
| — | Lumentum Holdings | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | Lumentum printed a buy signal but fails our financial-quality screen, which blocks new positions. OPERATIONAL: Quality_Pass FALSE hard gate. Q4 FAIL (B67 -> W56 -> B83 is not consecutive). val_adj 0 (DCF 12% of price, broken). R cluster. |
| — | Marvell Technology | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | Marvell has held a buy signal for three sessions but fails our financial-quality screen, so it cannot be a new position. OPERATIONAL: Quality_Pass FALSE hard gate; Q4 passes. val_adj 0 (broken DCF). R cluster. |
| — | Sandisk Corporation | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | Sandisk surged 11% and printed a pre-breakout setup, but this is its first such print; our rule needs two of the last three before placing an anticipation order. OPERATIONAL: ANTICIPATE (slot needs). QP pass, FAIR_VALUE. Re-arm: ANTICIPATE again at the 09-21 EOD with cv >= 55 -> QUEUED-ANTICIPATE buy-stop at that row's Entry_Price, 0.5x, S-checked (stop 18.3% / 3.0xATR wide will bind). No earnings behind the +10.99% (L clear). |
| — | ASE Technology Holding | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | ASE printed a top-conviction pre-breakout setup but fails our financial-quality screen, which blocks new positions. OPERATIONAL: Quality_Pass FALSE hard gate (applies to anticipate entries). ANTICIPATE anyway. |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
58 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.226 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
91 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.