Recommendations
1 to acquire · 1 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | Apple | 333.02 | BUY — QUEUED @307.05 | 307.05 | 298.50 | 310.86 (+1.2%) | 319.75 (+4.1%) | 395.90 (+28.9%) | Strengthening PullbackBuy_VWAP (L1 favored family): WATCH->BUY->BUY->STRONG BUY over four snapshots, conviction ->80, Buy_Rank #1, quality gate PASS (F=9). Valuation GROWTH_PRICED_IN MoS -3.16 trims conviction to 70 (still above the 65 floor) and halves size. Close 333.02 is ~8.5% above the 307.05 pullback entry (ED -3.04), so no market buy - queue a GTC buy-limit at 307.05 that only fills on a genuine pullback (no-chase, counterfactual-backed). Size 0.5x (MoS<=-3); stop 298.50; 12wk 395.90 exceeds the DCF anchor (growth beyond priced-in). Expires 2026-07-29 (3 sessions). · news |
| TSM | Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing | 403.41 | SELL ALL | — | 406.37⚠ | n/a | n/a | 377.50 | L2 stop-break completion (signal-based loss-cut, CLAUDE.md §9): the residual's settled close 403.41 finally closed BELOW its 406.37 stop (-0.73%, decisive) with a negative 12wk (377.50) and a 2nd consecutive NO TRADE print (conviction collapsed to 0). deteriorated -5.12%->-7.9%, Gain_ATR -1.47->-2.28. Full exit of the 103-share residual at the Monday open (MOO, UT-3 escalation - confirmed, don't re-recommend). NOT a profit-take: PROFIT_ARMED is the UT-9 arm-on-loss mislabel (underwater). Valuation amplify suppressed by G2 (TSM DCF vs price ~9x off, broken) - the exit stands on the stop-break alone. Proceeds realized ~-. · news |
| DELL | Dell Technologies Inc | 437.50 | HOLD | — | 423.45 | n/a | 495.95 | 623.44 | Bullish read intact: HOLD, conviction stable 61, FailedBreakdown_Up_20D, close 437.50 (-0.4%), -0.43% (~flat vs cost), no Exit_Warning, 12wk 623.44 (+42.5%). Not armed (Gain_ATR negative, T12_Progress 70.18). News confirms AI-server momentum ( AI orders, FY27 AI-server guide, consensus 0 Sells). Model trailing stop eased to 422.89 as ATR shrank - hold the higher recorded 423.45 (never ratchet down); close +3.3% clear. UT-10: no ADD. Escalation: decisive close below 423.45 with a negative 12wk, or 2 consecutive NO TRADE, arms the L2 exit. 12wk exceeds the DCF anchor. · news |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
9 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
0.134 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
24 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.