Recommendations
1 to acquire · 1 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| CRM | SalesForce Inc | 185.95 | BUY | 185.95 | 181.22 | 191.62 (+3.0%) | 204.86 (+10.2%) | 198.33 (+6.7%) | Salesforce is bought as a beaten-down turnaround, not a momentum chase: the shares fell ~30% this year to a June low and are now up ~12% over both the past week and the past month as the selling exhausts, while the business underneath keeps compounding - Agentforce and Data 360 combined ARR reached 4bn, up more than 200% year on year, and management guides FY27 revenue to -46.2bn against a $63bn FY30 target. The valuation screen calls it fairly valued with passing quality, Wall Street's consensus target sits ~30% higher at, and the entry is at the settled close rather than above it, with risk capped 2.5% below at a level that says quickly whether the bottom is real. OPERATIONAL: BUY conv 76, Buy_Rank #1, ED 0.00, Order_Type Market, 2 consecutive BUY prints strengthening. adj = 76 + val_adj -10 + bias 0 = 66, one above the 65 floor. Quality_Pass TRUE (F-Score 7, rank 15/26, Bargain T, DCF 379.39) - first name in 9 sessions to clear BOTH floor and gate. Sizing 0.5071 x 987,863.41 x 0.20 x 0.75 size-mod = 75,142 -> @185.95 = 75,123.80 (7.6% of book). Entry range 183.59-188.31 (+-0.25 ATR). f=0.30 (L5, calib 0.134 on 7 graded buys). DISCOUNTS ACCEPTED: (i) L1 - FailedBreakdown_Up_20D is this book's most-discounted family, own cell n=1 stop-first 1.0 (TSM 07-07, -6.95% at 1wk), report-only so no numeric bias, respected via 0.75x size not a veto; (ii) stop 181.22 is only 0.50 ATR / 2.54% - inside one day's noise - offset by 4.0:1 nominal R:R and trivial dollar risk (0.19% of book), expectancy +4.72/sh even at a 60% stop-first rate; (iii) close is BELOW EMA200 198.59, so this is a bounce inside a downtrend, and the 12wk 198.33 lands on that 200-day line i.e. mean-reversion to trend, not through it. 12wk < 4wk = systemic finding 2. Countervailing: Morgan Stanley cut to Equal Weight 07-21 with PT 185 - the 185.95 close sits ON it, which is why 0.75x and not full size. L6 clean: thirteen names printed +4.5% to +19.5% today and none is bought; CRM rose +1.05%, a laggard not a gap. · news |
| TSM | Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing C | 406.11 | SELL ALL | — | 406.37⚠ | n/a | n/a | 353.23 | This closes out the last third of a position that has gone against us, and it is a decision about our signal rather than about TSMC's business - which is excellent. The company just reclaimed a trillion valuation on second-quarter revenue up ~34% to 2bn, record profits, third-quarter guidance of +37% at 65-67% gross margin, and it trades near 20x forward earnings. But our model has had no directional read on the shares for three straight sessions, and its own twelve-week projection still sits 13% below today's price while the holding is 7.3% underwater. If TSMC is worth owning at this multiple it deserves a fresh position with a live signal and a real stop, not the tail of a losing one. OPERATIONAL: 7th arming, unfilled 6x on the executor stall (8th session) - UT-11 re-fire, do not re-litigate on a bounce. BASIS RE-STATED: the L2 stop-break leg is DEAD - close 406.11 vs stop 406.37 = -0.06% / 0.014 ATR, 3rd non-decisive session, and the 12wk has RISEN 3 sessions (341.79->347.18->353.23). The exit now rests on (i) sustained NO TRADE on a held position, its own CLAUDE.md section 9 origination class - conv 0, 'Consensus conflict + low conviction', Pillar_Consensus Indeterminate, Exit_Strategy none, no stop/entry/4wk target, 3 consecutive sessions and 4 of the last 5; and (ii) 12wk 353.23 = -13.02% below the close. Below EMA20 411.11 and EMA50 414.52, above EMA200 364.68, RSI 46.9. NOT a profit-take: PROFIT_ARMED at T12_Progress 114.97 with Gain_ATR -1.77 is the UT-9 arm-on-loss mislabel, inert, ~19th session. G2 suppresses the valuation amplify (DCF 45.15 vs 406.11, ~9.0x broken), 15th session. Proceeds ~41,829.33, realised ~-3,286.73 (-7.29% vs 438.02). 1wk/4wk n/a (blank Target_Price); model band 374.60-425.74. TSMC July monthly revenue on 08-10 is 4 sessions AFTER the exit - not a sale into a catalyst. WITHDRAWAL TRIGGER CARRIED FORWARD UNCHANGED: two consecutive settled closes ABOVE 406.37 with a rising 12wk cancels the exit and re-bases the residual as a fresh position - it missed by today, so the 08-05 run MUST test it before an 8th arming. · news |
| DELL | Dell Technologies Inc | 429.02 | HOLD | — | 390.11 | n/a | 504.50 | 553.14 | Dell is held and its protective stop is lifted after the best session of this drawdown - the shares rose 5.8% and the position is now barely underwater, having been down 11% a week ago. The market is paying up for AI server demand that keeps outrunning supply: AI server revenue grew 757% year on year to 1bn last quarter against a $60bn annual target, the order backlog is at a record, and management has raised full-year revenue and profit guidance. Dell is up 232% this year and outpacing Hewlett Packard Enterprise. With the forward view still ~29% above today's price, the right move is to protect the recovery by raising the risk line, not to sell into it. OPERATIONAL: STOP RAISED 358.88 -> 390.11 (+8.7%), the engine's own non-degenerate Stop_Price at 1.03 ATR below the close (the 07-31/08-01 rows had entry=stop=close and were unusable). Cuts residual risk ~24,318 -> ~13,502. Close 429.02 (+5.83%), -7.75% -> -2.36%, Gain_ATR -0.93 -> -0.28. HOLD conv 46, 0, blank Sell_Rank, NO Exit_Warning; NOT profit-armed (Gain_ATR negative) so no ADR-0012 tick applies. Above EMA20 411.78, EMA50 382.20, far above EMA200 254.96. NO ADD (UT-10: both prior pullback ADDs graded stop_hit; and buying a name up 5.83% on the day is the L6 chase). ADR-0020 TRAIL EROSION tested: Peak Stop 423.45 vs live stop 358.88 = 15.25% erosion with NO size reduction since that peak (the 50% trim was armed 07-29/30 and withdrawn 07-31) - this WOULD have fired a mandatory 30% trim under the us book's 15%/30% config, but ADR-0020 ships default-off and ustech has not enabled it, so REPORT-ONLY, no trim originated; moot at the anchor anyway since the new 390.11 stop is only 7.87% below the peak. Not trimming is also what G1/G3 and the optional_trim counterfactual ('cost', median -16.67% at 4wk, n=17) argue for. · news |
| QCOM | Qualcomm Incorporated | 151.57 | NO ACTION | 151.57 | 128.77 | 157.01 (+3.6%) | 169.69 (+12.0%) | 86.39 (-43.0%) | Qualcomm screens as the cheapest quality name in the book and prints a buy label off a deeply oversold reading, and it is still declined - because the model's own twelve-week projection for it sits 43% BELOW today's price. Buying a stock whose forward view is a 43% loss cannot be justified by a bounce signal. The fundamentals side with the projection rather than the label: fiscal third-quarter revenue fell 4% year on year to 9bn with earnings a shade light, and while automotive hit a record 6bn (+61%), management flagged that Qualcomm's share of the next iPhone will fall well below the 20% it held, with Apple-related revenue declining sharply. The shares are down ~11% this year while the semiconductor index is up ~68% - that is a structural de-rating, not an oversold swing. OPERATIONAL: BUY conv 70, Buy_Rank #2, ED -0.00 clean entry at the close, RSI 32.8. Best valuation in the book - FAIR_VALUE, Bargain T, Quality_Pass TRUE, MoS -0.74 -> val_adj only -4 -> adj 66, ONE ABOVE the 65 floor, and refused by hand anyway. Corroborating: Pillar_Consensus Consolidation_Bearish (Trend 42 / Momentum 37 / Volatility 22), close below EMA20 169.69, EMA50 181.02 AND EMA200 172.32, VWAP distance -10.66%, stop 15.0% / 2.81 ATR away (the engine cannot find a tight invalidation). Ledgered direction:none / optional:true so the counterfactual grader prices what standing down cost. Feeds systemic finding 2 - a bullish label with a 12wk below the entry needs a Forward_View_Conflict flag in core/predictions.py. · news |
| SNOW | Snowflake Inc. | 307.53 | NO ACTION | 304.82 | 262.85 | 329.00 (+7.9%) | 388.76 (+27.5%) | 438.23 (+43.8%) | Snowflake has the strongest uptrend in the book and is passed over for the ninth session running, on valuation and balance-sheet quality rather than on the chart. The shares are priced well beyond what the current cash flows support - the earnings-power valuation is negative - and the quality screen fails outright, which blocks a brand-new position even when the trend is excellent. After a 4.9% jump the stock is also overbought, so buying here would be paying up into strength rather than entering on a pullback. OPERATIONAL: BUY conv 65, Buy_Rank #3, buy-stop 304.82 BELOW the 307.53 close (ED -0.16), stop 262.85, strongest trend pillar in the book (Trend 94). MoS recomputed at anchor -1.74 -> val_adj -9 -> adj 56, NINE below the 65 floor; independently hard-gated by Quality_Pass FALSE (F-Score 5, EPV -/sh, Quality_Rank 23/26). RSI 74.5 also fails the no-chase bar. Had it been taken: 0.75x -> @304.82 74,376; 12wk 438.23 (+43.8%) exceeds the DCF anchor of 112.27. Ledgered direction:none / optional:true for the counterfactual grader - this name is now the single largest cumulative cost of the quality gate in this book. |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
11 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
0.134 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
53 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.