Recommendations
0 to acquire · 1 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| DELL | Dell Technologies Inc | 437.55 | SELL 50% | 437.55 | 406.44 | 433.38 (-1.0%) | 502.86 (+14.9%) | 605.09 (+38.3%) | Dell's risk line broke decisively and we are taking half the position off. The stock fell 6.64% to 437.55, closing 3.90% below our 455.32 stop after a 10.10% intraday range on 7.05m shares - it opened flat, traded to 471.75, then liquidated to 427.54 and closed near the low, 1.29% under VWAP. There was no company announcement: this is the market re-pricing a well-documented margin squeeze, where gross margin has compressed to 18% from 21% year-on-year as the mix shifts to lower-margin AI servers and rising memory costs land straight on a hardware assembler's expense line. The tape corroborates it - memory and foundry held (MU -0.4%, TSM -0.3%) while servers and optics were sold. We keep half because the case is not broken: the 12-week projection is still +38%, price holds above its 50- and 200-day averages, valuation reads FAIR_VALUE with an F-Score of 8, and consensus sits at a target into a Sept 3 quarter expected to grow EPS 121%. Half off honours the stop; half on keeps the print. *** OPERATIONAL: origination = decisive stop break (CLAUDE.md s9), NOT ADR-0020 - peak_stop 455.32 = live stop, trail erosion 0.00%; the stop held and the price broke it. L2 INCOMPLETE - stop leg fires, forward-view leg fails (T12 605.09 = +38.29%), which is why this is a full exit moderated DOWN to a half, not a 30% warning-trim escalated up; 08-12 precedent (same setup, +9.87% reversal next session) argues against taking it all. Valuation amplify (MoS_FV -3.178 <= -3, would bump CONSIDERED and SUPPRESSED by G2: exceeds-DCF-anchor flag (T12 605.09 vs DCF/sh 485.61, +24.6%) plus hyper-growth (rev +88% YoY); FV_method EPV means MoS_FV measures EPV/sh 112.78 against DCF/sh 485.61, a 4.31x spread - unusable (systemic finding 4, 08-19). The 50% is set on the stop break's own terms. STOP RE-BASED 455.32 -> 406.44 = 2.0 x ATR (32.656) below the 471.75 session high; the engine's own 421.22 sits only 0.50 x ATR below the close on a 7.46%-ATR name and would force an accidental full exit on noise 9 sessions before FQ2. Ratchet NOT violated - original risk honoured by the cut; ADR-0020 peak_stop re-bases to 406.44 on the reduced line and faces the veto stack again on any re-fire. Residual = 16.2% of, risk to stop = 1.15%. Realized - (357 x -23.748 vs cost 461.298); proceeds. f = 0.134 (calib_1w, 17 graded >= 10, L5 does not bind). 12wk EXCEEDS DCF ANCHOR. EXECUTOR IS 2 SESSIONS STALE - verify it runs for 08-20 or UT-3 escalation and UT-11 shortfall re-fire apply. · news |
| AAOI | Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. | 122.19 | HOLD | 122.19 | 111.93 | n/a | n/a | 116.18 (-4.9%) | Holding Applied Optoelectronics on a tight leash. The stock fell another 7.02% to 122.19, a second brutal session that leaves the position 18.6% underwater, and the model's 12-week projection has now dropped below the current price for the first time - the forward case has gone from thin to negative. There was no company news; the whole AI-optics complex de-rated together (Coherent -6.2%, Lumentum -5.2%) and this is the highest-beta name in it, which was known when we bought half-size with a wide stop. We are not selling today because the stop at 111.93 has not broken - the price still sits 9.2% above it - and the remaining risk is a contained But this was always framed as a time-boxed trade with a hard trail, and a decisive close below 111.93 now ends it. *** OPERATIONAL: L2 SECOND LEG NOW ARMED exactly as the 08-19 card predicted - Target_12Week 116.18 < close 122.19 (-4.92%). Stop leg does NOT fire (close +9.17% above 111.93), so L2 stays INCOMPLETE and there is no exit today; a decisive close below 111.93 completes it and UT-9 will not block (L2 requires no arm). UT-9 CONTROLS the arm: PROFIT_ARMED prints at Gain_ATR -1.56 on a -18.56% position - arm-on-loss mislabel, INERT, 8th session across 4 tickers. Dead-view tick (c) NOW CLEARS by (1.02 x close 124.63 vs T12 116.18) after missing by on 08-19 - moot, ticks require a valid arm; confirms systemic finding 3 (tick c arrives one session late by construction; T12 fell -14.5% today vs a -7.02% price move). NO TRADE count = 1, not 2 (NoTrade_Reason: 'Consensus conflict + low conviction'). Valuation cannot originate or amplify: Val_Signal NA, FV/sh -3.38 (negative EPV), Quality_Pass False, F-Score 4. Stop HELD 111.93; ADR-0020 peak 111.93 = live, erosion 0.00%. Position = 4.3% of; risk to stop; risk from cost = 1.35% of. · news |
| NVDA | NVIDIA Corporation | 217.56 | HOLD | 217.56 | 206.05 | n/a | 228.80 (+5.2%) | 240.68 (+10.6%) | Holding NVIDIA into next week's results. The stock was quiet at 217.56 (-0.99%) while the rest of the AI hardware complex fell 4-10%, it trades above its 20-, 50- and 200-day averages, and the 12-week projection sits about 11% higher. Q2 results land 26 August and the disciplined way into this complex is after that print, not before it. One thing has changed and is worth stating plainly: options now imply roughly a 6.75% move on the result, which off today's price spans 202.87 to 232.25 - so our 206.05 stop, which was deliberately placed below that range last week, now sits inside it. An ordinary adverse reaction would take the position out. We are not moving the stop down, so this is a flag rather than a change. *** OPERATIONAL: UT-9 CONTROLS - PROFIT_ARMED prints on T12_Progress 90.39 while Gain_ATR is -1.64 and the position is -4.07%; arm-on-loss, INERT, never a profit-take. L2 fails BOTH legs (close +5.58% above stop; T12 240.68 = +10.61%). STOP HELD 206.05 - stops ratchet up only; the 08-28 implied band has slid UNDER it (edge 202.87 vs 206.05) as the close fell 219.74 -> 217.56, so revisit at the 08-25 close. ADR-0020 peak 206.05 = live, erosion 0.00%. L6 stands: no add before the print; horizon stance hold-through with an add-after-print read-through to MU/KLAC/NBIS/NET. Position = 3.8% of; risk to stop. |
| SNOW | Snowflake Inc. | 325.01 | WATCH | 306.39 | 294.60 | n/a | 323.93 (+5.7%) | 463.14 (+51.2%) | The only buy candidate on the board and it does not clear the bar. Snowflake's raw conviction of 64 is already below our 65 threshold before any valuation haircut, the shares screen as expensive, and the quality screen fails on an F-Score of 5. It also closed well above the level we would want to pay, so even a qualifying signal would have been queued rather than bought. Results are due around 2 September. *** OPERATIONAL: fails TWICE - raw cv 64 < 65 floor pre-haircut, then val_adj -10 (MoS_FV -1.946) -> adj 54; AND Quality_Pass False (F-Score 5, Quality_Rank 20.5) blocks new entries outright. Buy_Rank 1, EDA -1.58 = queue not market. Ledgered direction:none to price the quality-gate cost (backlog item d-iii). scorecard_bias 0 (UT-8, no actionable cell). |
| CRM | SalesForce Inc | 206.09 | WATCH | 206.09 | — | n/a | n/a | 254.68 (+23.6%) | Salesforce was the best performer on the board, up 5.07%, and our model stopped signalling on it entirely. We flagged it last session as the one genuinely good-value, quality-passing name in the buy list and set a re-arm condition based on the signal strengthening; instead the price delivered and the signal went blank. No position taken, and the miss is recorded rather than explained away. *** OPERATIONAL: BUY cv68 (adj 58) on 08-19 -> AVOID / NoSignal cv0 on 08-20 after a +5.07% session. The 08-19 re-arm was written on conviction >= 75 and the name delivered price instead - engine took a +5% print as a reason to stop signalling. Only quality-passing Bargain in the pool (Quality_Pass True, F 7). Ledgered direction:none so the cost of the conviction-floor pass is priced (backlog d-iii). |
| MSFT | Microsoft Corp | 484.31 | WATCH | 484.31 | 478.75 | n/a | 506.56 (+4.6%) | 644.50 (+33.1%) | Microsoft was blocked last session only by the quality screen, and this session it left the buy list on its own - the signal faded from a buy to a watch even though the shares rose 0.56%. Nothing to do; the question of whether the quality gate was costing us a good trade has been answered by the signal decaying anyway. *** OPERATIONAL: BUY cv76 (adj 68, blocked SOLELY by Quality_Pass False) on 08-19 -> WATCH cv61 (adj 53) on 08-20. The gate's cost is now measurable and it is zero for this name - the setup expired before the gate mattered. Ledgered direction:none, closing the d-iii measurement loop on the highest-profile gate block in the book's history. |
| PLTR | Palantir Technologies Inc. | 175.19 | WATCH | 175.19 | 169.77 | n/a | 189.20 (+8.0%) | 249.65 (+42.5%) | Palantir rose another 2.13% and dropped out of the buy list. The business quality is genuinely good but the price is not - it is the most extended name we track on every valuation measure we run, and we do not chase. *** OPERATIONAL: BUY cv64 (08-19) -> WATCH cv61 (08-20), adj 51 after val_adj -10 (MoS_FV -13.01, second-worst in the book). Quality_Pass True, F 8, Quality_Rank 5 - quality fine, price not. UT-6 no-chase. Ledgered direction:none. |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
17 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
0.134 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
53 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.