Recommendations
0 to acquire · 2 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| AAOI | Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. | 107.63 | SELL ALL | 107.63 | 111.93⚠ | n/a | n/a | 84.20 (-21.8%) | We are selling our entire Applied Optoelectronics position at Tuesday's open. Late on Friday the company filed to sell up to million of new shares through an at-the-market offering, and the stock fell almost 14% on Monday to 107.63 in response - a dilution event, not a passing wobble, on a business that is still loss-making at the bottom line despite record 86% revenue growth. That break took the shares decisively through our 111.93 risk line, and our own twelve-week view has now been below the share price for five sessions running and has collapsed to 84.20, some 22% below where it trades today. The valuation screen cannot even value the company - its earnings power works out negative - and it ranks last of the 31 names we follow on quality. When the risk line breaks, the forward view is dead and the signal has gone silent, we sell all of it rather than average down. OPERATIONAL: L2 AND-gate COMPLETE for the first time - stop leg (close -3.84% / 0.25 ATR through 111.93, session low 102.10 = -8.8% through, 14.96m sh = 1.9x prior) AND dead-12wk leg (T12 84.20 = -21.77%, monotonic 135.97->116.18->120.41->112.17->84.20) AND 2 consecutive NO TRADE cv0 ('Consensus conflict + low conviction'), consensus Indeterminate, below EMA20 125.23 / EMA50 128.89, only +1.06% above EMA200 106.51. FULL not half because DELL fails one leg and this fails three. UT-9: PROFIT_ARMED at Gain_ATR -2.48 on a -28.26% position = INERT arm-on-loss, eleventh session; this is L2-originated, not ADR-0012. ADR-0020 did not fire (peak_stop = live stop 111.93, 0% erosion). Valuation val_adj 0 - NA row, FV/sh -3.38 negative EPV, Quality_Pass False, F 4, Quality_Rank 28.0/31. Realized -vs cost 150.03; proceeds; position closes, book drops to two names. 1wk/4wk n/a (NO TRADE row prints no Target_Price); model band Est_Low 84.35 / Est_High 139.92 = -21.6%/+30.0%, a +-26% width on a 15.86%-of-price ATR. See systemic finding 9: the 11.5% stop gap that kept the gate open for four sessions closed in one -13.77% gap. · news |
| DELL | Dell Technologies Inc | 433.19 | SELL 50% | 433.19 | 406.44 | 438.19 (+1.2%) | 485.30 (+12.0%) | 543.57 (+25.5%) | We are selling half our Dell holding at Tuesday's open to honour a stop-loss that broke five sessions ago and has still not been executed. The shares closed at 433.19, nearly 5% below the 455.32 level where we said we would cut, they set a lower high than a week ago, and our conviction reading has fallen from. We are selling only half, not all: Dell is the best-quality business we own, it is the one holding our valuation work calls fairly priced rather than expensive, and our twelve-week view still points 25% higher. Second-quarter results land on 3 September with the street positioned for a large beat, and the half we keep stays exposed to that. This is risk discipline on a broken stop, not a change of mind on the company. OPERATIONAL: THIRD re-fire under UT-3/L3/UT-11 of the 08-20 armed half-exit (MOO 08-21, MOO 08-22, neither filled); ustech_executor_state.json last_run_date 2026-08-18 = FIVE sessions stale, trades_detected empty, portfolio JSON still reads 713. Execution-gap slippage THIS session -/sh x 357 = - (vs 08-22 ref 442.08); cumulative vs the 08-20 arm 437.55 = -; realized widens - -> -. L2 remains INCOMPLETE (stop leg only; T12 543.57 = +25.48%, consensus Consolidation_Bullish, RSI 48.1) -> 50%, never 100%. Valuation amplify MOOT this session: regenerated MoS_FV -3.178 -> -2.841 exits the <=-3 tier entirely; G2 would suppress regardless (T12 543.57 vs DCF 485.61 = +11.9% exceeds-anchor; EPV 112.78 vs DCF 485.61 = 4.31x spread) -> val_adj 0. ADR-0020 did NOT fire: 10.74% erosion (peak 455.32 vs live 406.44), zero size reduction, 4.3 pts from the 15% us-family trigger - executing re-bases the watermark legitimately; a fourth unexecuted session walks it toward the KLAC pathology. Catalyst clear: fresh horizon resolves FQ2 to 2026-09-03 = 7 sessions out, OUTSIDE the <=5-day window (and the exception would fire anyway on stop-break + confirmed lower high). RESIDUAL STOP HELD AT 406.44: 2.0xATR below the 451.18 high = 399.07 (lower, ratchet up only); the engine's own 420.16 = exactly 0.50xATR is rejected on DISTANCE not direction - a 3.0% stop on a 6.01%-ATR name, fourth consecutive hand-override. Residual = = 16.16% of, open risk = 1.00%. New bear datapoint: Seeking Alpha 'I'm Downgrading Dell Ahead Of Q2 Earnings' (body HTTP 403, title-only weight). · news |
| NVDA | NVIDIA Corporation | 208.48 | HOLD | 208.48 | 206.05 | n/a | 219.96 (+5.5%) | 216.73 (+4.0%) | We are holding Nvidia through Wednesday's results rather than trimming ahead of them. The shares fell 2.9% to 208.48 in a broad chip selloff, but none of our three sell tests is met - the stock is still above our 206.05 stop, our twelve-week view still points higher, and the signal has actually firmed slightly. Our rule is not to cut a position into a scheduled event on nerves alone; it takes a broken stop or a confirmed lower high, and neither exists. What we will not pretend is that this is comfortable: the options market implies a move of roughly 8% either way on the print, which is wider than the 1.2% gap between today's price and our stop, so an ordinary bad reaction takes us out. We accept that because the position is under 4% of the book and the money actually at risk to the stop is about OPERATIONAL: CATALYST-AWARE HOLD - Q2 FY2027 lands 08-26 after the close, 1 session out, horizon stance hold-through, band -8%/+9% = -, confidence high. Conviction (+7), no -20 collapse tick. No origination class fires: +1.18% above stop, T12 216.73 = +3.96% positive (decaying 246.90->240.68->236.63->230.42->216.73), no SELL label. UT-9 eleventh session: PROFIT_ARMED INERT (Gain_ATR -3.19 on -8.08%). ADR-0020 erosion 0% (peak_stop = live stop 206.05). NO TRAIL-RAISE: chandelier 2.0xATR below the 215.59 high = 204.11, lower, rejected by ratchet; engine Stop_Price 197.00 lower still. 206.05 HOLDS and sits INSIDE the implied band. Position = 3.67% of; open risk = 0.04%; unrealized -. L6: no add before the print; the horizon's add-after-print read-through to MU/NBIS/NET is a POST-print licence only. Consensus EPS on revenue $92bn vs company guide $91bn +-2% - estimates at the TOP of the guide, the setup that punishes an in-line print. Enters 8.5% below the May record, ~25x forward. REVISIT AT THE 08-26 CLOSE. · news |
| SNOW | Snowflake Inc. | 322.78 | WATCH | 312.82 | 300.52 | n/a | 331.11 (+5.8%) | 459.96 (+47.0%) | We passed on Snowflake for a third week, and it fails on two separate counts. Our raw conviction of 64 is already below the level we need before any valuation adjustment, and the shares look expensive enough to cut that to 55. Separately, the company does not clear our financial-quality screen, which on its own blocks a new position. It is the closest thing to a live buy case in the book and it is still ten points away. Results are due around 2 September and we will look again after them. OPERATIONAL: cv 64, MoS_FV -1.875 -> val_adj clamp(round(-9.38),-10,0) = -9, bias 0 (UT-8) -> adj 55 vs the 65 floor. Quality_Pass False (F 5, Quality_Rank 20.5) blocks new entries independently. Signal did IMPROVE - reverted from 08-22's FailedBreakdown_Up_20D back to PullbackBuy_VWAP, the L1/UT-12-favoured family; Entry_Distance_ATR -0.81 only mildly extended, Buy_Rank 2. Ledgered as a direction:none counterfactual so the cost of the floor+quality-gate block is priced before the gate is ever re-evaluated (see the 07-11 Q4 measurement gap). |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
20 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
0.096 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
53 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.