Recommendations
0 to acquire · 2 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| CRM | SalesForce Inc | 237.92 | SELL 30% | 237.92 | 238.25⚠ | 244.27 (+2.7%) | 259.07 (+8.9%) | 339.04 (+42.5%) | Salesforce closed below both its stop and the trim trigger we wrote down a week ago, and the buy-the-dip signal from Thursday has already faded, so we cut 30% of a losing position as pre-committed rather than argue the hold again. OPERATIONAL: Z3 armed trigger FIRED - "decisive close < 242.76 -> trim" (written 09-11, re-affirmed 09-18); close 237.92 = 0.54 ATR below it and 0.04 ATR below the 238.25 recorded stop; cv, BUY - ADD lapsed to HOLD. L2 second leg absent (12wk 339.04 = +42.5%) - that forward view has printed ~+42% for weeks while price fell, so it is not treated as a hold argument. News: nothing company-specific (ex-div on 09-17). Residual 176: stop held 238.25 (U5 no lowering) as an ALERT line; exit remainder on a close < 228.98 (1.0 ATR below the anchor) OR L2 both legs. · news |
| TSM | Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing C | 434.67 | SELL 43.2% | 434.67 | 415.50 | 437.28 (+0.6%) | 443.36 (+2.0%) | 434.45 (-0.1%) | TSMC's own 12-week projection has now sat below the share price for five straight sessions, so we complete the pre-committed cut of even though conviction and fundamentals are strong - the rule exists so a contested hold cannot be re-argued on a green day. OPERATIONAL: RE-FIRE of the 09-18 card, which never executed (execution "market_on_open" is outside the executor vocabulary - U1 regression; fixed to "market" here). Z3 trigger 5/5 (434.45 < 434.67). UT-9: PROFIT_ARMED inert (Gain_ATR -0.35). G2/Y7: valuation amplify suppressed (DCF 45.44 unit-broken ADR row). Scorecard FailedBreakdown_Up_20D|sell -10 noted, never vetoes a pre-committed trigger. U6: Target 453.84 above Est_High 443.36 -> band top. Residual 63: stop 409.22 -> 415.50 (scan = 2.0xATR chandelier); 12wk counter re-bases to 0/4 on fill (Y6(b)). · news |
| AAPL | Apple | 336.13 | WATCH — queued order lapsed | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | Queued buy @338.61 lapsed — closed 336.13 below the level; awaiting reprice at the next end-of-day run. Apple's signal rebounded from a collapse to the book's top-ranked STRONG BUY - ADD as it pushes toward its July high, so we add a half-size tranche on a buy-stop that fills only if the strength carries through Monday; valuation is rich, so size is halved. OPERATIONAL: cv 88 - val_adj -10 (MoS -3.11 at the anchor close, T4) + bias 0 (BreakoutUp_52W|buy n=3 report-only, L1 caution) = adj 78 >= 65. Not extended (ED +0.36; buy-stop above the 336.13 close). U2: 12wk 370.10 >= 1.02 x entry. Volume: 112.34% x = 123.6 x 0.5 (MoS <= -3) = 61. Entry range 336.90-340.32. V7/L8: if Monday gaps >1.5% above 338.61 the stop pays the gap - reprice or stand down. Stop 324.93 written to state now (Y3/V6). Note: 52W high is 344.57 (07-29) - this is a near-high setup, not yet a clean breakout. Same session the 09-18 33-sh trim is withdrawn (tick (b) reversed; armed-not-fired -> trail). · news |
| MU | Micron Technology, Inc. | 1015.80 | HOLD | 1015.80 | 929.67 | 1023.64 (+0.8%) | 1041.94 (+2.6%) | 1107.79 (+9.1%) | Micron gained another 3.9% and conviction rose to 86; hold and raise the stop. OPERATIONAL: PROFIT_ARMED on T12 91.7 but Gain_ATR 0.62 < 1.0 (X2) -> immaterial, trail-raise 889.31 -> 929.67 (scan = 2.0xATR chandelier). FQ4 09-30: L6 no adds into it. |
| PLTR | Palantir Technologies Inc. | 177.64 | NO ACTION | 176.16 | 169.93 | 179.97 (+2.2%) | 185.42 (+5.3%) | 222.05 (+26.1%) | Palantir printed an add signal on the favoured pullback cell, but its valuation haircut leaves it under our conviction floor, so we hold the existing and raise the stop. OPERATIONAL: adj 56 < 65. Stop 167.07 -> 169.93 (scan, 1.24 ATR below close, tightest eligible). |
| NVDA | NVIDIA Corporation | 222.27 | HOLD | 222.27 | 211.10 | 225.62 (+1.5%) | 233.44 (+5.0%) | 226.45 (+1.9%) | NVIDIA recovered from AVOID to HOLD with a positive 12-week view; hold the small residual on a raised stop. OPERATIONAL: UT-9 - PROFIT_ARMED inert (Gain_ATR -0.81). Stop 207.72 -> 211.10 (scan = chandelier). |
| LITE | Lumentum Holdings | 930.91 | NO ACTION | 930.91 | 896.01 | 969.37 (+4.1%) | 1059.11 (+13.8%) | 1034.92 (+11.2%) | Lumentum ranks #2 but fails the F-Score/FCF quality screen, which blocks new entries. OPERATIONAL: quality gate hard block; also unstable (WATCH/BUY alternating) and stop only 0.54 ATR below entry. |
| QCOM | Qualcomm Incorporated | 177.72 | NO ACTION | 177.72 | 172.69 | 183.76 (+3.4%) | 197.85 (+11.3%) | 187.99 (+5.8%) | Qualcomm printed a second BUY after a -7% Friday, but valuation and the weak scorecard cell leave it under the floor. OPERATIONAL: adj 59 < 65 (val -6, FailedBreakdown_Up_20D|buy -3, 5th+ stable read). |
| SNDK | Sandisk Corporation | 1791.82 | NO ACTION | 1818.46 | 1486.11 | n/a | n/a | 2016.47 (+10.9%) | Sandisk jumped 10% into a strong anticipation signal, but it is the first such print, so it is watched rather than bought. OPERATIONAL: ANTICIPATE (needs). Re-arm: a 2nd print -> anticipate slot buy-stop at the then-live Entry_Price, 0.5x size, never chase a gap (L6). |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
43 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.280 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
91 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.