Hong Kong — End-of-Day Verdict
3 DISPOSE (CCB -50%->25,700; Link -85%->400; 7709 -50%->900) free ~HK; 0 ACQUIRE (buy pool EMPTY at close). Tencent -50% firm SR1 slot-capped near-miss. HSBC sell withdrawn (HOLD, trail 148.3). Post-cash ~HK.
Recommendations
0 to acquire · 3 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0939 | CCB (H) | 7.83 | SELL 50% | 7.83 | 7.40 | n/a | n/a | 6.11 (-22.0%) | Trim the dominant bank line 50% - a stable 4/4 STRONG SELL-REDUCE (FailedBreakout_Down_20D, SR3) with a deep RSI-27 washout and a -21.9% 12wk read; breakdown-family + negative 12wk is a signal-based exit (L2). Keep half (25,700) for the oversold bounce, stop 7.40. Fifth re-issue of a de-risk the book has not executed since 06-30; biggest dollar de-risk (~HK). Valuation NA_CCY (blind), val_adj 0. |
| 0823 | Link REIT | 37.34 | SELL 85% | 37.34 | 36.50 | n/a | n/a | 32.46 (-13.1%) | Complete the twice-lapsed REIT exit: the settled close firmed to STRONG SELL-REDUCE (cv63, SR2) from yesterday's AVOID, with a -13.1% 12wk on a reliable HK sell cell. Sell ~85% (2,400), keep a 400 rider, stop 36.50. Frees ~HK. Model PP 85.46% -> 2,393, broker-round to lot -> 2,400. Valuation NA_CCY (blind), val_adj 0. |
| 7709 | XL2CSOPHYNIX (2x SK Hynix) | 91.70 | SELL 50% | 91.70 | 82.00 | 89.90 (-2.0%) | 85.70 (-6.5%) | 130.67 (+42.5%) | Bank half the leveraged 2x SK-Hynix ETF on a stable low-conv reversal print (RallySell_BearTrend cv29, SR4) that has closed below its 101 stop while -20% underwater. Per the codified 2x-ETF rule a low-conv reversal is a trim-50%, not a full exit; the sub-ATR (0.36 ATR) breach is not itself decisive so the trim rests on the signal + leveraged rule. Keep a through the 07-10 SK Hynix ADR debut (horizon two-sided -16..+16%, overlay hold-through), stop ~82, reassess same-day. De-risks leverage into 07-08 FOMC minutes. 12wk 130.67 is a noisy leveraged projection, not a trade objective. Shared with hklev sub-book (L7) - execute once. Valuation NA_CCY (blind), val_adj 0. · news |
| 0700 | Tencent | 461.20 | NO ACTION | 461.20 | 430.00 | n/a | n/a | 374.60 (-18.8%) | Firm STRONG SELL-REDUCE (cv64, SR1, adj 68) with a -18.7% model 12wk, PROFIT_ARMED (~+HK), but slot-capped behind the three larger dollar de-risks (<=3 DISPOSE). Standing overlay override caps any trim at 50% + hold core ~430 (news confirms the WeChat-AI/cloud thesis). Execute a -50% (sell 100, keep 100 @ ~461) if a DISPOSE slot frees or CCB/Link/7709 fill; core stop 430. Ledgered optional so the counterfactual grader prices the slot-cap. Valuation NA_CCY (blind), val_adj 0. · news |
| 0005 | HSBC | 153.30 | HOLD | 153.30 | 148.30 | n/a | n/a | 170.39 (+11.1%) | Yesterday's SELL-REDUCE withdrawn: the settled close retreated to HOLD (BreakoutUp_52W, cv rising, PP0). PROFIT_ARMED but not fired (HOLD + rising conviction) -> mandatory trail-raise, not a trim: raise the 12,000 stop to 148.3 (2.0x ATR chandelier) off the prior 146.5. 12wk +11.1%. Valuation NA_CCY (blind). |
| 6869 | YOFC | 158.20 | HOLD | 158.20 | 150.00 | n/a | n/a | 113.41 (-28.3%) | AVOID at the settled close (BreakdownDown_20D cv42, PP0) after a 10:30 SELL-REDUCE -> not a firm card (L4 settled close authoritative). Close 158.2 > stop 150 (no breach). Underwater falling knife (RSI 36, 12wk -28%) -> hold rather than sell the washout; re-fires on a REDUCE print or a decisive close below 150. |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
87 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.283 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
21 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.