Hong Kong — End-of-Day Verdict
3 DISPOSE (CCB -50%->25,700; HSBC -30%->8,400; Tencent -50%->100) free ~HK; 0 ACQUIRE (buy pool = neg-12wk falling knife China Mobile, rejected). Post-cash ~HK. Link REIT de-risk intent held (AVOID at close); YOFC marginal breach held (stop 150).
Recommendations
0 to acquire · 3 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0939 | CCB (H) | 7.85 | SELL 50% | 7.85 | 7.36 | n/a | n/a | 6.21 (-20.9%) | Trim the biggest bank line 50%: model prints STRONG SELL-REDUCE (FailedBreakout_Down, SR2) with a deeply negative 12wk (6.21, -20.9%) and RSI 27.4 washout. Breakdown-family + neg-12wk is an L2 exit basis; keep half for the oversold bounce. Re-issue of the four-times-lapsed de-risk on the dominant bleed. Residual stop 7.36. Executes at the 2026-07-07 open (L8). |
| 0005 | HSBC | 152.00 | SELL 30% | 152.00 | 146.50 | 151.02 (-0.6%) | 148.73 (-2.2%) | 167.34 (+10.1%) | Take a measured 30% off the dominant position: the model flipped HSBC to its top sell rank (SR1) on a mean-reversion-down at an overbought upper band (RSI 65.7) while profit-armed. Late-flip single print and 12wk still +10.1%, so a 30% profit-trim not an exit (G3 allows; G1 no protect). Trail the rest to 146.5. Also withdraws the stale 07-03 buy queue @151.1 (signal now opposite direction). Executes at the 2026-07-07 open (L8). |
| 0700 | Tencent | 452.00 | SELL 50% | 452.00 | 430.00 | n/a | n/a | 346.42 (-23.4%) | Trim 50% on a stable 4/4 STRONG SELL-REDUCE with a negative model 12wk (346.42, -23.4%), override-capped at 50%. News (DRAM supply deal, Weixin Pay expansion, analyst target 700) confirms the hold-core WeChat-AI/cloud thesis, so keep the core 100 with a 430 stop. Executes at the 2026-07-07 open (L8). · news |
| 0823 | Link REIT | 37.28 | NO ACTION | 37.28 | 36.50 | n/a | n/a | 32.11 (-13.9%) | De-risk intent stands but the settled close weakened to AVOID (PP0, no active sell size) from 07-03's STRONG SELL-REDUCE, so no firm trim card today despite the -14% 12wk. Re-fires on a REDUCE print or a decisive close below the 36.5 stop. Ledgered optional so the counterfactual grader prices what not trimming costs. |
| 6869 | YOFC | 171.50 | HOLD | 171.50 | 150.00 | n/a | n/a | 151.79 (-11.5%) | Monitor flagged a stop breach (close 171.5 < 188.45, -8.99%) but ATR is 35.8 (20.9% of price) so the breach is only 0.43 ATR = noise, not a decisive L2 break. Signal NO TRADE, RSI 37.9 washout, 12wk -11.5%. Hold rather than sell the washout; reset the monitor stop wider to 150 below the noise band. |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
84 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.283 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
21 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.