Hong Kong — End-of-Day Verdict
3 DISPOSE (CCB -50%->25,700; Link REIT ~85%->400; Tencent -50%->100) free ~HK; 2 QUEUED ACQUIRE-ADD (HSBC ~800 @151.1; StanChart ~200 @219.09) ~HK. ~HK + proceeds = ~HK available. 2513 Knowledge Atlas WATCH (un-sizeable).
Recommendations
2 to acquire · 3 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0939 | CCB | 7.78 | SELL | 7.78 | 7.36 | 7.39 (-5.0%) | n/a | 6.10 (-21.6%) | L2 breakdown+neg12wk; twice-lapsed re-issue; 50% (RSI23 oversold) |
| 0823 | Link REIT | 37.92 | SELL | 37.92 | 36.50 | n/a | n/a | 32.34 (-14.7%) | stable STRONG SELL-REDUCE +neg12wk; scorecard +9 |
| 0700 | Tencent | 431.20 | SELL | 431.20 | 430.00 | n/a | n/a | 311.61 (-27.7%) | Sell_Rank1; override caps at 50% |
| 0005 | HSBC | 152.00 | ADD — QUEUED @151.10 | 151.10 | 146.00 | 154.96 (+2.6%) | 163.97 (+8.5%) | 166.08 (+9.9%) | cv90 BR1 fresh breakout; PROFIT_ARMED not fired->trail 146; add capped to ~800 ( discipline vs model 9439) |
| 2888 | StanChart | 221.00 | ADD — QUEUED @219.09 | 219.09 | 207.38 | 226.12 (+3.2%) | 242.51 (+10.7%) | 256.57 (+17.1%) | fresh breakout cv73 BR3; +17% 12wk |
| 2513 | Knowledge Atlas | 1793.00 | NO ACTION | 1783.84 | 1372.94 | n/a | 2744.52 (+53.9%) | 2555.03 (+43.2%) | only +12wk fresh buy but un-sizeable: ATR 20% of price, -23% stop; sub-lot risk size -> defer |
| 0992 | Lenovo | 21.30 | HOLD | 21.30 | 20.30 | n/a | 28.26 (+32.7%) | 30.35 (+42.5%) | marginal state-stop breach -0.93% but +42% 12wk -> not L2 exit; stop reset wider |
| 0522 | ASMPT | 204.80 | HOLD | 204.80 | 186.00 | n/a | 254.54 (+24.3%) | 291.84 (+42.5%) | recovered +5.5% but PP0, no add trigger |
| 0981 | SMIC | 77.60 | HOLD | 77.60 | 75.53 | n/a | 91.39 (+17.8%) | 95.37 (+22.9%) | cv55<floor, no add |
| 1347 | Hua Hong | 178.00 | HOLD | 178.00 | 154.19 | n/a | n/a | 253.65 (+42.5%) | |
| 3750 | CATL | 675.50 | HOLD | 675.50 | 610.00 | n/a | n/a | 690.58 (+2.2%) | PROFIT_ARMED spurious (underwater); no signal sell |
| 6869 | YOFC | 201.20 | HOLD | 201.20 | 188.45 | n/a | n/a | 212.99 (+5.9%) | |
| 7709 | XL2CSOPHYNIX | 116.80 | HOLD | 116.80 | 102.50 | n/a | 173.74 (+48.8%) | 166.44 (+42.5%) | lev ETF override keep 50%; +6.4% bounce, above stop |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
52 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.441 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
21 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.