Hong Kong — End-of-Day Verdict
3 DISPOSE (CCB -50%->25,700; 7709 -72%->500; Tencent -50%->100 profit-take) free ~HK + 1 ACQUIRE (Lenovo QUEUED 4,000 @23.15, ~HK) ->. Link slot-capped near-miss. Post-cash ~HK.
Recommendations
1 to acquire · 3 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0939 | CCB (H) | 8.07 | SELL 50% | 8.07 | 7.57 | 8.05 (-0.2%) | 7.94 (-1.6%) | 7.91 (-2.0%) | Re-issue the dominant HK de-risk now that the settled close prints a firm STRONG SELL - REDUCE cv66 FailedBreakout_Down_20D at SR1 (top sell rank) with a negative model 12wk (Est 7.91, -2.0%). Reliable HK sell cell (scorecard +4) + neg-12wk = L2/L3 exit basis; the standing trim has lapsed 7 sessions (book trimmed 2513 instead). Model PP is 85.46% but size to 50% to keep half through the still-soft zone; residual stop 7.57. NA_CCY valuation-blind (val_adj 0). L8 pending next open. · news |
| 7709 | XL2CSOPHYNIX (2x SK Hynix) | 96.00 | SELL 72% | 96.00 | 82.00 | 97.07 (+1.1%) | 93.92 (-2.2%) | 92.03 (-4.1%) | The 2x leveraged SK-Hynix ETF closed AVOID cv64 FailedBreakout_Down_20D (down/breakdown family) and the overlay override is TRUE: close 96.0 < 101 stop -> the overlay itself calls for full exit, and the leveraged-ETF rule permits a large trim on a down-family print. Bank ~72% (sell) of the -16%-underwater leveraged bleed; keep only a 500-share rider through the 07-10 ADR debut per the codified leveraged-ETF caution (7747 05-13 full-exit missed +5.8%). scorecard FailedBreakout_Down_20D|sell +4. Leveraged 12wk bands are noise, not objectives. L7 (hk parent governs the shared 7709 share). L8 pending next open (= debut day; reprice on a gap). · news |
| 0700 | Tencent | 469.60 | SELL 50% | 469.60 | 430.00 | 466.56 (-0.6%) | 467.97 (-0.3%) | 466.71 (-0.6%) | Armed+fired profit-take (ADR-0012) on the book's biggest winner (Gain_ATR 23.14): the close is NO TRADE cv0 but PROFIT_ARMED and fired tick (c) dead 12wk (Est 466.71 < 1.02x469.6) + tick (d) 2 consecutive NO TRADE (07-08 & 07-09) -> 2 ticks -> profit_take_2 = 50%. The overlay hold-override caps the trim at 50% + hold core ~430 (CXMT/Weixin thesis intact). Bank 50% (sell 100, keep 100) into a flat 12wk and a CPI-gated macro; core stop 430. NA_CCY valuation-blind. L8 pending next open. · news |
| 0992 | Lenovo Group | 24.04 | BUY — QUEUED @23.15 | 23.15 | 21.28 | 23.78 (+2.7%) | 25.12 (+8.5%) | 26.46 (+14.3%) | Fresh top-rank STRONG BUY cv86 on PullbackBuy_VWAP (BR1) - the book's strongest buy print in days and L1's most reliable buy cell - with a positive forward view (Est 12wk 26.46, +14.3% vs the 23.15 limit) and RSI 58 (not extended). Entry limit 23.15 sits 0.54 ATR below the 24.04 close (eD -0.54) -> QUEUE a GTC limit that fills only on the pullback, keeping the no-chase rule strict; re-entry below the prior 25.02 exit. Size a conservative ~4,000-sh starter (~HK) into the CPI-gated macro (stage adds between rate events). NA_ETF valuation-blind (val_adj 0, quality gate off); PullbackBuy_VWAP|buy report-only (n4, no bias haircut). expires 2026-07-14. L8 pending next open. · news |
| 0823 | Link REIT | 37.82 | NO ACTION | 37.82 | 36.50 | 37.96 (+0.4%) | 37.97 (+0.4%) | 37.16 (-1.7%) | Reliable FailedBreakout_Down_20D sell cell (cv63, +4 bias) with a slightly negative 12wk (Est 37.16, -1.7%), BUT the settled close softened to AVOID/PP0 (model backed off the trim) -> per L4 the close no longer wants a firm reduce, and it is slot-capped behind the 3 larger de-risks. Hold; execute a 30% trim (~1,000 -> keep 1,800) only if a DISPOSE slot frees or it re-prints a REDUCE / closes below 36.50. Ledgered conditional so the counterfactual grader prices not-trimming. L8 pending next open. · news |
| 0005 | HSBC | 152.30 | NO ACTION | 152.30 | 146.93 | 152.37 (+0.0%) | 153.23 (+0.6%) | 148.32 (-2.6%) | PROFIT_ARMED but NOT fired: the close is HOLD cv63 FailedBreakdown_Up_20D (PP0) with only a marginally-flat/negative 12wk (Est 148.32, -2.6%) and no other deterioration tick (no repeated NO TRADE, no Tier-1 warning), and the overlay carries a hold-override (exit only on close below stop; 152.3 > 146.93). G3 fails -> trail-raise not trim: hold the 12,000 stop at 146.93 (model). No breach. Ledgered conditional. L8 pending next open. |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
93 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.261 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
21 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.