Hong Kong — End-of-Day Verdict
3 DISPOSE (HSBC -50%->6,000 profit-take; 7709 -72%->500 overlay full-exit; CATL -33%->200 SR1 loss-cut) free ~HK + 1 ACQUIRE (Lenovo QUEUED 4,000 @23.26, ~HK) -> (net +~HK). Tencent 30% trim slot-capped; CCB/Link no-action (L4). Post-cash ~HK.
Recommendations
1 to acquire · 3 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0005 | HSBC | 153.50 | SELL 50% | 153.50 | 149.45 | 153.96 (+0.3%) | 154.70 (+0.8%) | 152.31 (-0.8%) | Armed+fired profit-take (ADR-0012) on the book's largest, most-extended winner: PROFIT_ARMED + tick (a) RSI_DIV (new today, absent 07-09) + tick (c) dead-12wk (T12 152.31 < 1.02x153.5) = 2 ticks -> profit_take_2 = 50%. RSI 66, past 12wk target, flat/negative forward projection into a CPI-gated de-risk window. NOT G1-protected (AnticipationUp_VCP cv75, not a fresh breakout cv>=80); G3 satisfied (forward flat/neg) so this de-risks an extended winner, not a winner-cut. Sell ( of 400), hold a on a raised 149.45 trail. L8 pending next open. · news |
| 7709 | XL2CSOPHYNIX | 89.40 | SELL 72% | 89.40 | 82.00 | 90.74 (+1.5%) | 87.01 (-2.7%) | 87.99 (-1.6%) | 2x SK-Hynix leveraged ETF, -22% underwater (cost 114.56). Overlay full-exit override TRUE: close 89.40 < 101, and the SK Hynix ADR debut (07-10) has now passed with 7709 closing DOWN ~6.9% -> post-debut down-family (AVOID cv54 FailedBreakout_Down). adj conv 58 is below the 65 floor but the overlay override drives this, not the floor. Per the leveraged-ETF rule take a large trim (, keep a 500 rider on an ~82 stop) rather than a clean exit on a soft cv54 print (7747 05-13 full-exit missed +5.8%); full exit if next print is breakdown-family cv>=70. L8 pending next open. · news |
| 3750 | CATL | 587.00 | SELL 33% | 587.00 | 488.81 | 580.66 (-1.1%) | 586.89 (-0.0%) | 601.75 (+2.5%) | First firm settled-close SELL-REDUCE cv72 BreakdownDown_20D SR1 (top sell rank) on a -22% loser (cost 751.8) is a valid signal-based reduce (L2), scorecard +4 -> adj 76. But RSI 32 is deeply oversold (capitulation territory) so take the minimum board-lot de-risk ( 33%; model PP was 49.87%) rather than sell the low; hold 200 on the 488.81 stop, re-fire if it breaks 488 or prints another breakdown cv>=70. L8 pending next open. · news |
| 0992 | Lenovo | 24.48 | BUY — QUEUED @23.26 | 23.26 | 21.26 | 24.53 (+5.5%) | 25.50 (+9.6%) | 27.22 (+17.0%) | Fresh top-rank STRONG BUY cv86 PullbackBuy_VWAP (BR1) across all 4 snapshots -- L1's favored buy cell with a positive 12wk (Est 27.22, +17%). RSI 59.8 (not extended), pulled back toward VWAP. Reprice/carry the GTC limit to the live 23.26 entry (provenance, from yesterday's 23.15) vs close 24.48 -> eD -0.69, fills only on a ~5% pullback so the no-chase rule stays strict. Size ( @2,000) HK, conservative starter into the CPI-gated macro. Re-entry below the prior 25.02 exit. Expires 2026-07-15 (anchor+3 sessions). L8 pending next open. · news |
| 0700 | Tencent | 460.20 | NO ACTION | 460.20 | 430.00 | 457.46 (-0.6%) | 454.18 (-1.3%) | 452.43 (-1.7%) | PROFIT_ARMED + 1 soft tick (c) dead-12wk (Est_12W 452.43 < 1.02x460.2 = 469.4) -> armed+fired profit_take_1 = 30%, overlay-capped 50% + hold core 430. But it recovered from 07-09's 2x NO TRADE to HOLD cv52 (deterioration eased) and it is a small ~HK line -> slot-capped near-miss behind the 3 larger/cleaner de-risks. Ledgered conditional so the counterfactual grader prices not-trimming; hold core on stop 430 per the standing override (460.2 > 430). L8 pending next open. · news |
| 0939 | CCB (H) | 8.13 | NO ACTION | 8.13 | 7.57 | 8.15 (+0.2%) | 7.97 (-2.0%) | 7.88 (-3.1%) | The recurring FailedBreakout_Down de-risk (reliable HK sell cell, +4 bias) flip-flopped intraday (NO TRADE -> STRONG SELL cv66 -> NO TRADE -> NO TRADE) and per L4 the SETTLED close is NO TRADE cv0 -> the de-risk does NOT fire today. Largest single line (~HK). Hold, no action; stop 7.57; re-fires only on a firm STRONG SELL SR1 at the settled close. Ledgered conditional. L8 pending next open. · news |
| 0823 | Link REIT | 37.44 | NO ACTION | 37.44 | 36.50 | 37.51 (+0.2%) | 37.53 (+0.2%) | 36.66 (-2.1%) | Reliable FailedBreakout_Down_20D sell cell (+4 bias) with a slightly negative 12wk (Est 36.66, -2.1%), BUT the settled close softened to AVOID/PP0 (intraday it printed STRONG SELL-REDUCE cv39/PP85 then reverted) -> per L4 the close no longer wants a firm trim, and it is slot-capped behind the 3 larger de-risks. Hold; execute a 30% trim (~1,000 -> keep 1,800) only if a DISPOSE slot frees or it re-prints a REDUCE / closes below 36.50. Ledgered conditional. L8 pending next open. · news |
| 0981 | SMIC | 79.65 | NO ACTION | 79.65 | 65.33 | 79.27 (-0.5%) | 81.32 (+2.1%) | 82.44 (+3.5%) | Close HOLD cv63 PullbackBuy_VWAP (recovered intraday), PROFIT_ARMED but NOT fired -> no other deterioration tick and Est_12W 82.44 = +3.5% positive forward. G3 fails (positive forward) -> trail-raise not trim: hold the 2,500 stop at 65.33 (model). Fell hard today (85..6) on the broad sell-off but the close signal is constructive. Ledgered conditional. L8 pending next open. · news |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
96 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.261 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
21 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.