Hong Kong — End-of-Day Verdict
3 DISPOSE (CCB -50%->25,700 SR1 breakdown; HSBC -50%->6,000 profit-take/SR MeanRevDown; 7709 -83%->300 overlay full-exit) free ~HK + NO ACQUIRE (Lenovo degraded, @23.26 GTC withdrawn -> WATCH) -> all cash-raising. Hua Hong stop-breach HELD through TSMC (stop reset 162). Tencent 30% trim slot-capped. Post-cash ~HK.
Recommendations
0 to acquire · 3 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0939 | CCB (H) | 8.18 | SELL 50% | 8.22 | 7.79 | 8.26 (+0.5%) | 8.08 (-1.7%) | 7.94 (-3.4%) | Stable top-rank STRONG SELL-REDUCE cv83 SR1 on the reliable HK FailedBreakout_Down sell cell (+3 bias) with a negative 12wk (Est 7.94, -3.4%), on the book's largest single line. Unlike 07-10 (which flipped to NO TRADE at the close) it held firm across all 4 snapshots (cv80->->83) -> L4 now satisfied, L2 down-trend+neg-12wk. Reduce 50% (25,000 -> keep 25,700 dividend core), stop 7.79. Valuation-blind (NA_CCY), technical-only. L8 pending next open 2026-07-14; reprice if the open gaps >~1.5%. · news |
| 0005 | HSBC | 152.60 | SELL 50% | 153.80 | 148.84 | 153.23 (-0.4%) | 154.49 (+0.4%) | 152.38 (-0.9%) | Firm STRONG SELL-REDUCE cv70 MeanRevDown_UpperBand (mean-reversion off the upper band) with RSI 66.9 + bearish RSI_DIV and a dead 12wk (Est 152.38, -0.9%), on the book's most-extended winner into the 07-14 CPI de-risk window. NOT G1-protected (not a fresh breakout/momentum-continuation cv>=80); G3 satisfied (forward flat/neg). Bank half (6,000 -> keep) on a raised 148.84 trail. Re-issue of the 07-10 50% trim that never executed, now signal-firmer. Valuation-blind (NA_CCY). L8 pending next open 2026-07-14; reprice if the open gaps >~1.5%. · news |
| 7709 | XL2CSOPHYNIX | 65.20 | SELL 83% | 59.90 | 52.00 | 62.34 (+4.1%) | 59.75 (-0.3%) | 62.03 (+3.6%) | 2x leveraged SK-Hynix ETF: stable SELL-REDUCE cv60 BreakdownDown_20D across all 4 snapshots, RSI 36, collapsed 89.4 (07-10) -> 59.9 (-48% vs cost 114.56), stop breached -27%. Overlay override deeply TRUE (close 59.9 << 101 -> full exit / post-debut breakdown-family). Per the leveraged-ETF rule, large de-risk (sell 1,500 ~83%) but keep a token 300 rider on an ~52 stop rather than a clean full-exit (7747 05-13 full-exit missed +5.8%). Escalation of the 07-10 -72% that never executed. Valuation-blind (NA_ETF). L8 pending next open 2026-07-14. · news |
| 1347 | Hua Hong | 171.50 | NO ACTION | 172.30 | 162.00 | 177.57 (+3.1%) | 169.50 (-1.6%) | 183.98 (+6.8%) | Stop breached (close 172.30 < state stop 178.24, -3.33%) on the broad HK down-day, BUT this is a winner (+7.7% vs cost 160) with a POSITIVE 12wk (Est 183.98, +6.8%), a HOLD signal, RSI 50 neutral, and TSMC Q2 07-16 read-through within 5 sessions -> L2 does NOT fire (needs stop-break AND negative 12wk) and catalyst-aware HOLD applies. Hold 3,000 through TSMC; reset the too-tight 178.24 profit-trail to 162 (below the down-day close, ~breakeven vs cost). Re-fires on a decisive close < 162 or a SELL-REDUCE print. Not a top-3 dispose. · news |
| 0700 | Tencent | 456.20 | NO ACTION | 457.60 | 430.00 | 455.69 (-0.4%) | 451.67 (-1.3%) | 449.59 (-1.8%) | PROFIT_ARMED + 1 soft tick (c) dead-12wk (Est_12W 449.59 < 1.02x457.6 = 466.75) -> armed+fired profit_take_1 = 30%, overlay-capped + hold core 430 (457.6 > 430). Small ~HK line, stable HOLD cv49 -> slot-capped near-miss behind the 3 larger de-risks. Ledgered conditional so the counterfactual grader prices not-trimming; hold core stop 430. L8 pending next open. · news |
| 0823 | Link REIT | 37.98 | NO ACTION | 37.52 | 36.50 | 37.59 (+0.2%) | 37.68 (+0.4%) | 37.00 (-1.4%) | Reliable FailedBreakout_Down_20D sell cell (+3 bias) with a slightly negative 12wk (Est 37.0, -1.4%), BUT the Action is AVOID (not a REDUCE) at the settled close -> per L4 no firm trim fires, and it is slot-capped behind the 3 larger de-risks. Hold 2,800; re-fires on a REDUCE print or a close < 36.50. Ledgered conditional. · news |
| 0981 | SMIC | 78.35 | NO ACTION | 78.35 | 65.35 | 79.19 (+1.1%) | 79.68 (+1.7%) | 80.67 (+3.0%) | HOLD cv52 PullbackBuy_VWAP (the favored L1 cell) across all 4 snapshots, PROFIT_ARMED but NOT fired -> no other deterioration tick and Est_12W 80.67 = +3% positive forward. G3 fails (positive forward) -> trail-raise not trim: hold 2,500 on stop 65.35. Ledgered conditional. · news |
| 3750 | CATL | 605.50 | NO ACTION | 603.00 | 488.81 | 593.70 (-1.5%) | 599.57 (-0.6%) | 598.42 (-0.8%) | Was SELL-REDUCE cv72 SR1 BreakdownDown on 07-10, but the settled close softened to NO TRADE cv0 across all 4 snapshots today -> per L4 the 07-10 -33% trim does NOT re-fire. RSI 36 (oversold), -20% underwater (cost 751.8), Est_12W 598.42 (-0.8%). Hold 300, stop 488.81; re-fires only on a firm REDUCE at the close. PROFIT_ARMED spurious (underwater). Ledgered conditional. · news |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
104 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.261 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
21 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.