Hong Kong — End-of-Day Verdict
2 ACQUIRE (2888 buy-stop ADD + 0388 QUEUED) + NO DISPOSE; 2 stop-breaks (1347/7709) held-and-trailed; 2513 baselined.
Recommendations
1 to acquire · 0 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2888 | StanChart | 226.80 | WATCH — queued order lapsed | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | Queued buy @228.65 lapsed — closed 226.80 below the level; awaiting reprice at the next end-of-day run. Book's strongest signal: fresh strengthening 52W-breakout STRONG BUY-ADD cv90 at entry, top buy rank, taken as a confirmed-strength buy-stop @228.65 (fills only on a push above the close). Sized small (150 vs model 245) because the ADR-0013 model projects a flat 12wk (+0.1%) and HK buy cells grade weak (book-note B); plays for the 255.44 technical target on a 218 stop. RSI_DIV downgraded to a trail-note by G1 (fresh breakout cv>=80). L7: may also sit in hkfin -> execute once. L8: execute 07-17 open. · news |
| 0388 | HKEX | 396.20 | BUY — QUEUED @377.42 | 377.42 | 369.07 | 397.92 (+5.4%) | 397.66 (+5.4%) | 392.54 (+4.0%) | L1-favored PullbackBuy_VWAP on the best HK buy cell (adj 78), but the name has run 2.54 ATR past the 377.42 pullback entry (close 396.2) -> no-chase QUEUE as a GTC-limit @377.42; fills only on a pullback, no cash today. Est 1wk +5.4% / 4wk +5.4% / 12wk +4.0% vs entry. Carried/repriced from the 07-15 queue (377.14). expires 2026-07-21; auto-withdraw if cv<65. L7: may also sit in hkfin -> execute once. · news |
| 1347 | Hua Hong | 157.40 | HOLD | 184.55 | 148.00 | 161.11 (-12.7%) | 158.21 (-14.3%) | 169.57 (-8.1%) | Stop-break (157.4 vs 162.0, -2.84%) but 12wk +7.7% ALIVE (Est 169.57) and conviction rising ->52 HOLD PullbackBuy), only -1.6% vs cost -> L2 exit basis (stop-break + NEGATIVE 12wk) NOT met -> HOLD through the TSMC 07-16 read-through. The 162 stop was above cost / too tight -> reset to 148. PROFIT_ARMED spurious (T12_progress on flat model). No trim. · news |
| 7709 | XL2CSOPHYNIX | 56.48 | HOLD | 56.48 | 50.00 | 58.80 (+4.1%) | 55.02 (-2.6%) | 57.31 (+1.5%) | 2x leveraged ETF, stop-break (56.48 vs 60.0, -5.87%), -50.7% underwater, BUT settled to ReversalUp_Oversold cv61 (oversold bounce, not breakdown-family, cv<70) -> leveraged-ETF rule (don't clean-exit a bounce; 7747 05-13 missed +5.8%) + L4 (settled close authoritative) keep it a HOLD. Overlay's <101 full-exit trigger is 11d stale and its breakdown-family condition unmet -> widen stop (below today's low), WATCH for a fresh breakdown-family cv>=70 to full-exit. · news |
| 2513 | Knowledge Atlas | 1548.00 | HOLD | 1548.00 | 1450.00 | 1604.02 (+3.6%) | 1553.38 (+0.3%) | 1573.77 (+1.7%) | New manual holding detected this run ( @ cost 1,635, funded from the 2.428M->793k draw), untracked by the decision loop. NO TRADE cv0 x4, -5.3% vs cost, no signal -> establish baseline and a 1,450 manual stop (~-6% from close, ~-11% from cost) for the monitor. HOLD. · news |
| 3690 | Meituan | 87.20 | NO ACTION | 85.55 | 73.77 | 86.05 (+0.6%) | 85.74 (+0.2%) | 84.91 (-0.7%) | BUY cv72 BreakoutUp_20D at entry (eD -0.35), adj 67 clears the floor but on the -5 BreakoutUp cell AND the model 12wk is NEGATIVE (84.91 vs 87.2, -2.6%) with RSI 68.4 stretching -> near-miss, not worth the slot behind 2888/0388. · news |
| 9988 | BABA-SW | 116.90 | NO ACTION | 103.42 | 96.85 | 116.88 (+13.0%) | 117.89 (+14.0%) | 114.46 (+10.7%) | BUY cv73 PullbackBuy_VWAP (adj 78, L1-favored cell) but the model pullback entry 103.42 is UNREACHABLE (-11.5% below the 116.9 close, eD -2.32) and Est 12wk is flat/negative (114.46 < 116.9) -> WATCH, don't publish an unreachable limit; re-arm on a real pullback toward VWAP. · news |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
106 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.261 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
21 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.