Hong Kong — End-of-Day Verdict
2 ACQUIRE + 3 DISPOSE (all pending next open). Sells free HK (HSBC reduce 1.68M + 2513 full exit 1.17M + 7709 half-trim 54k); buys need HK (0992 98k + 2318 80k) - strongly. 0 stop breaches; monitor clean; ALL SIX 07-22 cards unexecuted (3 disposes re-issued/repriced, 2 buy queues withdrawn, 0992 repriced to a live at-entry STRONG BUY). HK (unchanged - all pending next open).
Recommendations
2 to acquire · 3 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0005 | HSBC | 161.50 | SELL 85.46% | 161.50 | 156.12 | 159.59 (-1.2%) | 162.54 (+0.6%) | 168.03 (+4.0%) | Bank most of a stretched HSBC winner: the settled close again flipped to STRONG SELL - REDUCE (cv70, the book's #1 sell rank) on ReversalDown_Overbought at RSI 74.7 after a strong run into the 07-30 H1 - a signal-based risk-management reduce, not a profit-take (Avg_Cost 1.00 is a placeholder so is unknowable). Valuation NA_CCY (blind), ReversalDown cell report-only (bias 0). Forward is only flat-to-mildly-up (Est 1wk -1.2% / 4wk +0.6% / 12wk +4.0%) so the case is the reversal + RSI extension, stated honestly. RE-ISSUE of the unfilled 07-22 reduce, repriced to the 161.50 close; G1-G3 trim-discipline gates do not apply to a reversal exit. Residual 1,600 on a raised 156.12 stop. L7: check hkfin/sub-books, execute once. · news |
| 2513 | Knowledge Atlas | 1171.00 | SELL ALL | 1171.00 | — | 1209.40 (+3.3%) | 1146.38 (-2.1%) | 1215.59 (+3.8%) | Complete the exit on a persistent breakdown that keeps bleeding: AVOID cv53 FailedBreakout_Down (the actionable +2 down-cell, n=39), a 4th straight bearish print, ~28% underwater vs the 1,635 cost, ZERO fair-value coverage (no floor), and a noise-band forward (Est 4wk -2.1%, the +3.8% 12wk sits inside a -14%/+72% band = nothing). RE-ISSUE - the 07-21 and 07-22 pending exits both went unfilled (monitor confirms 1,000 still held); L3/HK-5 = execute the de-risk rather than re-recommend a 4th time. Stay MARKET and expect >15% intraday slippage (seen on 4 of the last 5 sessions). L7: check hktech, execute once. · news |
| 7709 | XL2 Hynix 2x | 60.50 | SELL 50% | 60.50 | 44.00 | 62.30 (+3.0%) | 57.90 (-4.3%) | 63.52 (+5.0%) | De-risk half of a bleeding 2x leveraged ETF: STRONG SELL - REDUCE cv75 (strengthened from 61), FailedBreakout_Down 4th print, -47% vs the 114.56 cost. The leveraged full-exit criteria (cv>=70 + 4 prints + breakdown-family) are NOW MET, but capped at a 50% trim per leveraged-bounce prudence (RSI 40.5 not extreme, Est12W +5.0%, the 7747 full-dump that missed a +5.8% bounce is the lesson); escalate to a full exit only on a 5th print or a close below the 44.00 manual trail. RE-ISSUE of the unfilled 07-22 50% trim, repriced. Hold the residual 900 on the 44.00 trail. L7: may sit in hklev, execute once. · news |
| 0992 | Lenovo | 24.62 | BUY | 24.62 | 24.09 | 24.80 (+0.7%) | 25.94 (+5.4%) | 26.31 (+6.9%) | The book's one high-conviction long: STRONG BUY cv91 (adj 87), 4 consecutive STRONG BUY prints, AT the model entry (EntD -0.0, RSI 58.8 - a re-break not a chase, so HK-1's pullback demand is satisfied), stop 24.09 (-2.2%) vs target 28.16 (+14.4%). FAIR_VALUE MoS -0.25 QP=True passes the quality gate (val -1); FailedBreakdown_Up cell bias -3 applied. Est (80% conf): 1wk +0.7% / 4wk +5.4% / 12wk +6.9% - the strongest 12wk in the pool. Repriced from the stale 07-22 22.98 pullback queue (never filled - the name ran up), so this is a live at-entry acquire that fills at the 07-24 open; reprice if it gaps >1.5%. L7: may sit in hktech, execute once. · news |
| 2318 | AAC Tech | 57.05 | BUY | 53.39 | 51.99 | 56.74 (+6.3%) | 57.09 (+6.9%) | 57.50 (+7.7%) | A no-chase entry on HK's one reliable buy cell: BUY cv70 (adj 73) PullbackBuy_VWAP (+3, the HK-2 positive anchor), but the close is ~3 ATR above the model entry (EntD -2.95) so it is queued as a GTC buy-limit at 53.39 (~6% below close) that fills only on a pullback - HK-4's no-chase-saved discipline. NA_CCY so the quality gate is off. From the 53.39 fill the forward is healthy (Est 1wk +6.3% / 4wk +6.9% / 12wk +7.7%, target 56.67); the knock is one NO TRADE flicker at 15:30 ( prints BUY). Expires 07-28 (anchor +3 sessions). · news |
| 0939 | CCB H | 8.74 | HOLD | — | 8.33 | n/a | 9.98 | n/a | HOLD - cv64->70 strengthening (AnticipationUp_VCP), close 8.74 above a raised 8.33 stop; the book's largest share line. No add (still just below the add threshold), no exit. |
| 2888 | StanChart | 226.60 | HOLD | — | 218.00 | n/a | 238.32 | n/a | HOLD - cv50->76 firming (FailedBreakdown_Up), close 226.60; kept the 218 stop (raise-only vs the 214.88 model stop). StanChart H1 07-30. Just below an add. |
| 0522 | ASMPT | 166.50 | HOLD | — | 156.50 | n/a | n/a | 191.58 | HOLD - NO TRADE cv0, -15.2%, but the best 12wk in the book (+15%) and a catalyst-aware hold into its own H1; no pre-trim, trail 156.50. |
| 1347 | Hua Hong | 149.40 | HOLD | — | 145.00 | n/a | n/a | 165.10 | HOLD - NO TRADE cv0, -6.6% vs cost; PROFIT_ARMED is spurious (finding #1) so no profit-take fires; trail 145.00; SK Hynix Q2 read-through (07-22) passed. |
| 3750 | CATL | 626.50 | HOLD | — | 488.81 | n/a | n/a | 642.83 | HOLD - NO TRADE cv0, -16.7%; catalyst-aware hold into H1 07-24 (tomorrow), no pre-trim; stop 488.81. |
| 0700 | Tencent | 445.20 | HOLD | — | 430.00 | n/a | n/a | n/a | HOLD - NO TRADE cv0 but close 445.20 above the overlay 430 exit floor; PROFIT_ARMED spurious (path inoperable book-wide); Avg_Cost 1.00 placeholder - fix input/hkportfolio.json. |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
115 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.314 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
21 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.