Hong Kong — End-of-Day Verdict
2 DISPOSE (2513 full exit, 7709 50% trim), NO ACQUIRE - all pending next open
Recommendations
0 to acquire · 2 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2513 | Knowledge Atlas | 1237.00 | SELL ALL | 1237.00 | — | 1256.01 (+1.5%) | 1184.66 (-4.2%) | 1225.58 (-0.9%) | Cut the book's worst chronic loser: 4th straight bearish print (AVOID cv63, FailedBreakout_Down_20D), -24.3% underwater, and a negative 12wk forward (Est 12wk 1225.6 sits below the 1237 close) - the L2 stop-break/negative-12wk exit basis, reinforced by HK-3 (trust the HK down-trend SELL family; FailedBreakout_Down|sell +2, n=43 actionable). Valuation NA (blind, no floor). RE-ISSUE of the unfilled 07-22/07-23 full exit - now the 4th+ unexecuted session (L3: execute the de-risk). The optional_trim counterfactual (n=23, +2.78% median saved) argues execute. Full exit (illiquid single stock, not a leveraged ETF). Frees ~HKL7: 2513 also sits in hktech - execute once. MARKET at the 07-27 open; reprice if it gaps >~1.5%. · news |
| 7709 | XL2 CSOP Hynix 2x | 52.74 | SELL 50% | 52.74 | 44.00 | 54.70 (+3.7%) | 52.35 (-0.7%) | 54.88 (+4.1%) | Keep de-risking the 2x leveraged Hynix ETF: AVOID cv58, FailedBreakout_Down_20D breakdown-family on the 4th print, -54% underwater and -34.9% below VWAP. The stale (19d) 07-05 overlay's '<101 -> full exit' price leg is true (close 52.74) and the breakdown-family full-exit criterion is met, but leveraged-ETF prudence caps this at a 50% trim (cv58 < the 70 full-exit conviction bar; the 7747 over-exit miss is why we don't dump 2x ETFs on a low-conv print). NA_ETF (blind). RE-ISSUE of the unfilled 07-23 trim. Frees ~HK; residual 900 rides a 44.00 trail. L7: 7709 lives in the hklev sub-book - execute once. MARKET at the 07-27 open. · news |
| 0005 | HSBC | 161.40 | HOLD; raise stop 157.00 | — | 157.00 | 159.27 | 162.74 | 168.13 | HOLD and WITHDRAW yesterday's aggressive 85% reduce: the settled close DE-ESCALATED from STRONG SELL - REDUCE cv70 to AVOID cv47 (ReversalDown_Overbought), and AVOID is not an actionable sell - the exit case did not confirm (L4 settled close authoritative). The 12wk forward is still positive (Est 12wk 168.1 = +4% vs the 161.4 close), so no signal-based sell basis remains; overbought RSI 74.3 alone never originates a sell (CLAUDE.md S9). Catalyst-aware hold: HSBC H1 is 07-30 (4 sessions) -> hold/trail through it, no pre-trim. Protect the stretched winner with a raised 157.00 stop. Flip-flop (STRONG SELL one day, AVOID the next) => patience, not a chase. Placeholder Avg_Cost 1.00 keeps unknowable. · news |
| 0939 | CCB-H | 8.78 | HOLD; raise stop 8.39 | — | 8.39 | 8.75 | 8.74 | 8.57 | HOLD, strengthening: HOLD label but conviction climbed cv66->72 across the session on AnticipationUp_VCP, RSI 63, well above EMA100/200. Not a fresh buy (held, no add signal); raise the stop to 8.39 to ride it. · news |
| 2888 | StanChart | 224.00 | HOLD; stop 211.74 | — | 211.74 | 225.43 | 226.72 | 227.63 | HOLD, firming: FailedBreakdown_Up_20D with conviction building cv50->55, close 224 above EMA100 201 / EMA200 186. Catalyst-aware hold into the 07-30 H1 (4 sessions) - trail on 211.74, no pre-trim into the print. · news |
| 0522 | ASMPT | 163.40 | HOLD; trail 156.50 | — | 156.50 | 165.57 | 176.13 | 187.51 | HOLD: NO TRADE (consensus conflict), -16.8% underwater. GROWTH_PRICED_IN MoS -4.43 is extreme but there is NO early Exit_Warning code (RSI_DIV/CLIMAX_VOL) - only the spurious PROFIT_ARMED - so the S9 valuation-elevate trim does not qualify (valuation never originates a sell). Best-in-book 12wk (Est +14.8%). Trail 156.50. · news |
| 1347 | Hua Hong Semi | 149.80 | HOLD; trail 145.00 | — | 145.00 | 152.44 | 148.85 | 166.11 | HOLD: NO TRADE, only -6.4% underwater. GROWTH_PRICED_IN MoS -19.9 is extreme but again NO early warning code -> no valuation-elevate trim (spurious PROFIT_ARMED only). Trail 145.00; positive 12wk (Est +10.9%). · news |
| 3750 | CATL | 622.00 | HOLD through H1; stop 488.81 | — | 488.81 | 615.02 | 605.98 | 618.56 | HOLD: NO TRADE, -17.3% underwater. FAIR_VALUE MoS -1.24 (not extreme). CATL H1 is in the ~07-24 window -> catalyst-hold through the print, no pre-trim; stop 488.81. · news |
| 0700 | Tencent | 434.60 | HOLD | — | 430.00 | 431.35 | 428.69 | 428.34 | HOLD: NO TRADE cv0, close 434.60 sits just above the 07-05 overlay's 430 exit floor (intact, held). Spurious PROFIT_ARMED (placeholder Avg_Cost 1.00) - no genuine profit-take fires. Watch 430: a decisive close below it is the overlay exit trigger. · news |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
120 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.314 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
21 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.