Hong Kong — End-of-Day Verdict
2 ACQUIRE (both QUEUED GTC-limit) + 2 DISPOSE (both MARKET) - pending next open 2026-07-28
Recommendations
2 to acquire · 2 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| 3690 | Meituan-W | 89.30 | BUY — QUEUED @80.33 | 80.33 | 75.45 | 88.56 (+10.2%) | 89.04 (+10.8%) | 83.38 (+3.8%) | Meituan is the book's best buy setup right now - a maximum-conviction pullback signal on the one Hong Kong buy pattern that actually grades well, and it ranks first in the book. The catch is that it has already run 10% above the price the model wants to pay, so we do not chase it: we leave a limit order at the model's entry and pay nothing unless the market comes back to us. Valuation is unavailable for this name, so nothing argues either way. Basis: STRONG BUY cv100 x4 stable, PullbackBuy_VWAP (HK-2 anchor cell, bias +3, n7 hit_1w.667), Buy_Rank 1 -> adj 103, the highest in the book. Valuation NA -> quality gate OFF, val_adj 0, size_mod 1.0. Extended eD -2.08 -> HK-4 no-chase -> gtc_limit @80.33 (fills only on a -10.0% pullback from the 89.30 close). Entry range 79.25-81.41 (+-0.25 ATR). Size: Portion 71.55% x HKequity x 20% buy_pct = HK -> /80.33 = 1,069 -> board lot 100 -> (~HK). Est_12W 83.38 is POSITIVE vs the 80.33 entry (+3.8%) but NEGATIVE vs the 89.30 close (-6.6%) - precisely why this is a queue and not a buy. Est_1W +10.2% / Est_4W +10.8% vs the entry, 80% conf. Stop 75.45 (-6.1%). expires_on 2026-07-30 (3 sessions); auto-withdraw if conviction drops <65. L7: also lives in hktech - execute once. · news |
| 0939 | CCB - H | 8.99 | ADD — QUEUED @8.84 | 8.84 | 8.45 | 8.99 (+1.7%) | 9.02 (+2.0%) | 8.95 (+1.2%) | China Construction Bank strengthened decisively through the session - from a hold to the book's strongest buy-add by the close - as it broke to a new 20-day high. We are adding to a position we already own, but only at a modest size and only on a small pullback, because breakout entries are the pattern this book has historically been worst at timing. Basis: HOLD cv80 -> BUY-ADD cv73 x2 -> STRONG BUY - ADD cv90 at the close, BreakoutUp_20D, Buy_Rank 2. Scorecard haircut -5 (BreakoutUp_20D|buy n8, hit_1w.25) -> adj 85, still well clear of the 65 floor. HK-1 confirmation requirements MET: 3 consecutive bullish ADD prints and RSI 67.9 < 70 (not yet overbought); HK-1 'never up-size' honoured - size_mod held at 1.0. Valuation NA_CCY -> blind, val_adj 0; the quality gate does not apply to an ADD in any case. Extended eD -0.78 -> no-chase -> gtc_limit @8.84 (1.7% below the 8.99 close), entry range 8.79-8.89. Size: Portion 70.29% x 50,700 held = 35,637 -> x0.5 book-note-B conservative scaling (HK buy cells grade weak) = 17,818, then capped at the book's standard buy ticket (70.29% x HKx 20% = HK) because the 0939 line is already the book's 3rd largest at HK -> 9,541 -> board lot 1,000 -> (HK). Est_1W +1.7% / Est_4W +2.0% / Est_12W +1.2% vs the 8.84 entry (80% conf) - a modest forward view; the trade is the breakout, not the projection. Stop 8.45 (-4.4%). FOMC 29-Jul is two-sided on bank NIM (horizon stance: hold-through, +-3.5%) - the limit sits below the market, so a hawkish gap fills us cheaper rather than worse. Held trail raised 8..45. expires_on 2026-07-30; auto-withdraw if conviction <65. L7: also lives in hkfin - execute once. · news |
| 2513 | Z.AI (ex-Knowledge Atlas) | 1281.00 | SELL ALL | 1281.00 | — | 1287.24 (+0.5%) | 1200.34 (-6.3%) | 1257.71 (-1.8%) | This position is down 22% and the model's own forward projections now sit below today's price at both the one-month and three-month horizons - the case for owning it has expired. On top of that, a block of previously locked-up shares becomes sellable tomorrow, which adds supply into an already weak tape. We exit the whole line at the open. Basis: AVOID cv60 x4 stable, FailedBreakout_Down_20D (HK's reliable down-trend sell family, bias +2, n45 hit_1w.579) -> adj 62. Forward view dead: Target_12Week 1257.71 sits BELOW the 1281 close, Est_4W 1200.34 (-6.3%), Est_12W 1257.71 (-1.8%); only Est_1W 1287.24 (+0.5%) is positive. L2/HK-3 admit this to the dispose pool despite the AVOID (not SELL-REDUCE) label. NOTE ON THE FLOOR: adj 62 is below the 65 fresh-issue bar - this is NOT a fresh origination but the RE-ISSUE of a carried, unexecuted pending dispose first raised 2026-07-21 (6th consecutive session; conviction has drifted while the thesis is unchanged), so it re-issues under L3/HK-5 execution discipline rather than clearing the origination floor. Valuation NA -> blind, no amplification available. Frees HKto. Trim-discipline gates G1-G3 do not apply: this is a loss-cutting trend exit on a broken name, not a profit-trim on a winner, and the PROFIT_ARMED flag on the row is spurious (systemic finding #1). Sells MARKET at the 2026-07-28 open; reprice if the open gaps >~1.5%. L7: also lives in hktech - execute once. · news |
| 7709 | XL2 CSOP Hynix 2x ETF | 54.50 | SELL 50% | 54.50 | 44.00 | 56.60 (+3.9%) | 53.77 (-1.3%) | 56.43 (+3.5%) | This leveraged Hynix ETF is down 52% and the model escalated it today from avoid to its strongest sell rating, ranking it the number one thing to reduce in the book. It also faces a binary earnings event in two days that a doubled-up ETF turns into a roughly 14% swing either way. We halve the position at the open to take that risk down, and keep the other half - a full exit is not yet justified. Basis: escalated AVOID cv58 (Fri) -> STRONG SELL - REDUCE cv68 x4 stable, Sell_Rank 1, FailedBreakout_Down_20D (bias +2, n45) -> adj 70, clears the floor. Portion: the model prints 85.46% but the leveraged-ETF rule caps a low-conviction reversal at 50% - a full exit needs cv >=70 PLUS 3 prints PLUS price < Stop_Price, and cv is 68 with the close at 54.50 against a 32.30 model stop, so two of three legs fail (the 2026-05-13 full exit on a similar print missed a +5.8% bounce). @ ~54.50 frees HKHONEST TENSION: Est_1W 56.60 (+3.9%) and Est_12W 56.43 (+3.5%) argue mildly AGAINST trimming; the case rests on the stable STRONG SELL - REDUCE label from HK's most reliable sell family, the -52.4% drawdown, the 2x leverage into a binary print, and this being the 4th consecutive unexecuted re-issue (L3/HK-5: untaken HK trims graded 'saved', median +2.78%). Est_4W 53.77 (-1.3%) is the one negative leg. Valuation NA_ETF -> blind, no amplification. RESIDUAL : trail held UNCHANGED at 44.00 (0.95 ATR below the close) rather than tightened - the horizon's tighten-trail stance is already discharged by the 50% cut, and a tighter stop inside a +-14% event band would knife the stub out on noise. Sells MARKET at the 2026-07-28 open; reprice if the open gaps >~1.5%. L7: also lives in hklev - execute once. · news |
| 0005 | HSBC Holdings | 162.80 | HOLD | — | 157.50 | 160.95 | 163.13 | 168.14 | HOLD: conviction wobbled -> across the session and the signal label drifted through three families (AnticipationUp_VCP -> BreakoutUp_52W -> MomentumContinuation_Up), with RSI at 76.3 (overbought). That is deterioration, but the label is still HOLD, not SELL-REDUCE, and Est_12W 168.14 is positive (+3.3%) - no signal-based sell basis exists. HSBC H1 on 04-Aug is a hold-through catalyst; do not pre-trim into the print. Response is a trail raise, not a trim: 157..50 (chandelier 2.0x ATR = 162.80 - 5.26 = 157.54). PROFIT_ARMED on the row is spurious (systemic finding #1) and Avg_Cost is blank, so no genuine profit-take can be evaluated on the book's largest line (HK) - systemic finding #2. Watch: a close below 157.50, or a second sub-60 conviction print alongside a negative 12wk, turns this into a dispose candidate. · news |
| 0522 | ASMPT | 161.60 | HOLD | — | 156.50 | 164.51 | 174.19 | 178.15 | HOLD - and explicitly NOT a dispose. The 14:00 print was a full-conviction STRONG SELL - REDUCE (cv65, Portion 85.46%, Sell_Rank 2) but it de-escalated to NO TRADE cv0 for the next three prints as the name rallied ~+3.1% into the close. L4 (the settled close is authoritative) governs: the sell case did not confirm, so it is withdrawn rather than actioned. The position is -17.7% but the forward view is the book's strongest - Est_4W 174.19 (+7.8%) and Est_12W 178.15 (+10.2%). GROWTH_PRICED_IN MoS -4.43 is extreme, but with NO early Exit_Warning code on the row there is no valuation-elevate path (CLAUDE.md 9c), and G2 would suppress the amplify here in any case. The interim on 29-Jul is a hold-through catalyst. Trail carried at 156.50 (the 161.60 close is 3.3% clear). Flagged to systemic finding #5: a sell-label swing within an hour on a 3% move is an engine stability defect. · news |
| 2888 | Standard Chartered | 226.00 | HOLD | — | 215.07 | 226.49 | 227.57 | 227.60 | HOLD: firming through the session, cv -> on FailedBreakdown_Up_20D, with the 226.00 close well above both the EMA50 (212.36) and EMA200 (186.11). The forward view is flat-to-slightly-positive (Est_12W 227.60, +0.7%) - not a buy case, and no sell case either. H1 lands 29-Jul alongside FOMC; hold through the print, no pre-trim. Trail raised 211..07 (the model's own Stop_Price), locking in the session's firming while leaving 4.8% of room - inside the +-1.83 ATR event band but acceptable on a small HK line. Avg_Cost blank (systemic finding #2), so and any cost-based arming are unknowable. · news |
| 0823 | Link REIT | 39.10 | HOLD | — | 37.59 | 39.07 | 39.38 | 38.77 | HOLD with a tightened trail. The signal is stable and mildly constructive (HOLD cv60 -> 63, FailedBreakdown_Up_20D, the 39.10 close above both EMA50 38.24 and EMA200 38.07), but the forward view is flat-to-slightly-negative (Est_12W 38.77, -0.8% vs close; Est_4W 39.38, +0.7%). The actionable point is the event: a live ~35% FOMC hike tail transmits mechanically through the HKD peg to Link REIT's financing cost and discount rate, and a +-3.5% scenario on this name is +-1.87 ATR - wider than a standard stop. Per the horizon's tighten-trail stance the response is a stop raise, not a trim: 37..59 (the model's own Stop_Price, 3.9% below the close). GROWTH_PRICED_IN MoS -0.03 is effectively neutral - no valuation input either way. · news |
| 0700 | Tencent | 443.00 | HOLD | — | 430.00 | 439.57 | 436.53 | 437.20 | HOLD, but this is the book's closest non-actioned sell case. A 4th consecutive AVOID cv60 on FailedBreakout_Down_20D with a negative forward view (Target_12Week 437.20 and Est_4W 436.53 both BELOW the 443.00 close), trading under both EMA50 (457.88) and EMA200 (505.79). What holds it: the 07-05 overlay override sets a specific exit trigger - a decisive close below 430 - and at 443.00 that floor is intact, so the L2 stop-break leg is not satisfied. The line is also small at (HK). Avg_Cost is a 1.00 placeholder, which is why the row shows a nonsense +44,200% reading (systemic finding #2). Watch 430: a decisive close below it is a mandatory full exit the next session, no further confirmation needed. · news |
| 0981 | SMIC | 70.65 | HOLD | — | 66.00 | 71.35 | 75.70 | 74.58 | HOLD: flat NO TRADE cv0 x4 ('Consensus conflict + low conviction'), with the 70.65 close below the EMA50 (74.90) but above the EMA200 (68.70) - a genuine no-man's-land, which is exactly what the engine is saying. The forward view is positive (Est_4W 75.70 +7.1%, Est_12W 74.58 +5.6%), so there is no exit basis. GROWTH_PRICED_IN MoS -5.18 is extreme but carries NO early Exit_Warning code, so the valuation-elevate path does not open (CLAUDE.md 9c). Q2 on 06-Aug is hold-through - an add is only considered AFTER the print on signal confirmation, never anticipatorily. Stop carried at 66.00 (6.6% below). Avg_Cost blank (systemic finding #2). · news |
| 1347 | Hua Hong Semiconductor | 148.60 | HOLD | — | 145.00 | 151.92 | 148.45 | 162.63 | HOLD: flat NO TRADE cv0 x4, only -7.1% underwater, and the 12-week view is the second-best in the book (Est_12W 162.63, +9.4% vs the 148.60 close). GROWTH_PRICED_IN MoS -19.88 is the most extreme valuation reading in the portfolio, but with NO early Exit_Warning code on the row there is no valuation-elevate trim (CLAUDE.md 9c) - and G2 (DCF-reliability) would suppress the amplify on a hyper-growth foundry regardless. The PROFIT_ARMED flag is spurious (systemic finding #1); the position is at a loss. Q2 on 06-Aug lands in the same session as SMIC's, so the book takes a correlated +-9-10% draw rather than two independent ones - that is a sizing observation, not a sell reason. Hold-through; trail carried at 145.00 (2.4% below the close - tight, and deliberately so into a binary print). · news |
| 3750 | CATL | 635.00 | HOLD | — | 488.81 | 631.74 | 609.88 | 616.85 | HOLD: flat NO TRADE cv0 x4, the position -15.5% underwater, the 635.00 close below the EMA50 (654.06) but comfortably above the EMA200 (584.13). The forward view has turned mildly negative (Est_4W 609.88 -4.0%, Est_12W 616.85 -2.9%), which is half of the L2 exit test - but the other half is absent: the close is 30% above the 488.81 stop, nowhere near a break. FAIR_VALUE MoS -1.24 is unremarkable and provides no amplification. No signal-based sell basis, so no trim. Watch: a bearish label (SELL-REDUCE or a breakdown-family print) landing while the 12wk stays negative would complete the L2 case without needing the stop to break. · news |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
122 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.283 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
21 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.