Recommendations
0 to acquire · 1 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| 3750 | CATL | 628.50 | SELL 85.46% | 628.50 | 614.95 | 625.19 (-0.5%) | 622.63 (-0.9%) | 610.15 (-2.9%) | CATL has flipped to a sustained sell signal at the settled close and we are banking two thirds of a losing position. The stock printed STRONG SELL - REDUCE on four consecutive prints into the close on the failed-breakout-down pattern, which is this book's best-sampled and most reliable exit signal, and the model's own forward view is now below today's price at every horizon it publishes - one week, four weeks and twelve weeks. The shares closed at 628.50, which is the exact floor of the HK-651.80 range at which the company placed new stock in April, so the placement overhang caps the near-term recovery too. We keep for the battery cycle behind a tightened risk line. OPERATIONAL: This card is the pre-committed 08-11 WATCH line firing exactly as written - re-arm was 'close < 625.50 OR a fresh SELL-REDUCE', and the fresh SELL-REDUCE leg triggered; it is therefore a NEW origination, not a re-issue, so HK-11 does not bind. Adjusted 38 = 37 + 0 val (sell-side is amplify-only; MoS -1.16 does not reach the -3 tier-bump bar) + 1 (FailedBreakout_Down_20D|sell n=61 ACTIONABLE, live bias +1 per HK-7). The 65 floor governs buys, not a stable-label exit - book precedent (08-18 1347 @adj 58, 08-17 1347 @adj 1). PROFIT_ARMED on this row is SPURIOUS and NOT the origination: the position is -16.4% underwater vs 751.80 with Gain_ATR -5.26; the arm came from T12_Progress 103.01 alone, the same false-arm pattern caught on 1347 on 08-13. Sizing: 300 x 85.46% = 256.4 -> rounded DOWN to the 100-share board lot = 200, keeping this a trim rather than a full exit. Residual hold the 614.95 trail (0.58xATR below the close, tighter than the model's 581.62). HK-12 pass - not degenerate. Proceeds HK. |
| 0700 | Tencent | 447.20 | HOLD | 447.20 | 430.00 | 443.27 (-0.9%) | 439.46 (-1.7%) | 451.26 (+0.9%) | Tencent prints a sell signal today but stays untouched, because the exit was already retired to a single line in the sand at 430 and the shares closed at 447.20, comfortably above it. The trend is genuinely weak - the stock trades below its 200-day average and the model sees it going essentially nowhere over twelve weeks - but the holding is only, about 1% of the book, and we do not re-open a retired exit thread on a line that has not been touched. OPERATIONAL: STRONG SELL - REDUCE cv73 held across all five intraday prints, Sell_Rank 2, adjusted 74 = 73 + 1 (FailedBreakout_Down_20D|sell, live bias). Not acted on: exit RETIRED 08-17 to the 430.00 WATCH line, which is also the news overlay's own standing override for this ticker - close 447.20 is 3.9% above it, NOT re-armed. HK-11 binds. Re-arm: decisive settled close < 430.00 OR a fresh SELL-REDUCE after a re-arm. DATA ERROR carried forward - Avg_Cost 1.00 in input/hkportfolio.json produces Unreal_PnL_Pct +44,620% and Gain_ATR 37.13, which is what falsely sets PROFIT_ARMED on this row; the arm is meaningless until Cost is fixed. Systemic finding, unchanged from 08-18. |
| 0522 | ASMPT | 158.50 | HOLD | 158.50 | 155.02 | 163.99 (+3.5%) | 178.81 (+12.8%) | 178.61 (+12.7%) | ASMPT broke through its risk line today, closing at 158.50 against a 163.69 stop, but we are holding rather than selling. The rule this book uses for a stop break is that it only becomes an exit when the forward view has also turned negative - and here it has not: the model still sees 178.81 in four weeks and 178.61 in twelve, roughly 13% above today's price, the best forward view of any holding in the book. So we re-base the risk line lower and give the position room. OPERATIONAL: Stop breach -3.17% confirmed by the monitor. L2 requires stop-break AND negative 12wk; the 12wk leg does not fire (+12.7%), so no exit. Label HOLD cv42 across five prints, no Exit_Warning, NO ADR-0012 arm (T12_Progress 88.74 < 90, Gain_ATR -3.26 negative). Trail RE-BASED 163.69 -> 155.02 (the model's own Stop_Price; 0.30xATR below the close - deliberately tight, one decisive down session resolves it). Quality gate F (F_Score 6, FCF_Yield -0.34%) and MoS -4.71 GROWTH_PRICED_IN, but neither originates a sell (CLAUDE.md section 9) and the position is held, so the gate does not bind. Position -19.28% vs 196.35. |
| 0939 | CCB - H | 9.05 | HOLD | 9.05 | 8.68 | 9.03 (-0.2%) | 9.14 (+1.0%) | 9.06 (+0.1%) | China Construction Bank remains the steadiest holding in the book - a buy-side signal held at full conviction across every read today, and the largest position by share count. Nothing to do but nudge the protective stop up. OPERATIONAL: HOLD cv73 x4 stable. PROFIT_ARMED (T12_Progress 99.89) but NO fire tick: (a) no other Exit_Warning code, (b) conviction flat, (c) 12wk 9.06 > 1.02 x 9.05 is marginal but the row carries no second warning, (d) label HOLD not NO TRADE. Armed-but-not-fired -> mandatory trail-raise, not a trim. Trail RAISED 8.66 -> 8.68 (the model's own Stop_Price, 1.99xATR below the close). Re-arm from 08-11 retirement unchanged: fresh SELL-REDUCE or decisive close < 8.46. |
| 0981 | SMIC | 73.00 | HOLD | 73.00 | 69.63 | 73.16 (+0.2%) | 75.92 (+4.0%) | 76.31 (+4.5%) | SMIC closed up on the day and, notably, held firm while Hua Hong fell - the two Chinese foundries are not trading as one basket. The engine has no actionable view, and the model still sees mid-single-digit upside over four and twelve weeks, so we hold behind an unchanged stop. OPERATIONAL: NO TRADE cv0 on the last two prints, PROFIT_ARMED (T12_Progress 95.66). Tick (d) needs 2 consecutive NO TRADE and technically has them - but Avg_Cost is BLANK, so ADR-0012's no-guess rule blocks any profit-take, same as 0823. Thread also RETIRED 08-14. Trail HELD 69.63 (0.77xATR below the close; tighter than a 2.0xATR chandelier at 64.27). Est_4W +4.0%, Est_12W +4.5%. MoS -5.31 GROWTH_PRICED_IN does not originate a sell (CLAUDE.md section 9). |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
176 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.249 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
49 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.