Recommendations
0 to acquire · 1 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| 0823 | Link REIT | 39.76 | WATCH — queued order lapsed | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | Queued buy @39.81 lapsed — closed 39.76 below the level; awaiting reprice at the next end-of-day run. Link REIT has finally broken out of seven weeks of dead money: the settled close of 39.76 clears EMA20/50/200 together, the signal engine printed STRONG BUY - ADD at conviction 86 (Buy_Rank 2, Trend pillar 82), and RSI at 62.9 means we are buying a fresh 20-day breakout rather than chasing an extended one. Fair value is neutral (GROWTH_PRICED_IN but margin of safety is essentially zero at -2.1%), so valuation neither helps nor blocks; no news in the window. Risk is tightly defined - a 2.0xATR stop at 38.70 puts HKat risk against a 42.62 swing objective, roughly 2.5:1. Buy-stop at the model entry 39.81 (entry band 39.67-39.95), = 2,800 x 70.29% rounded DOWN to the 100-share board lot, size mod 1.0x; qty_after 4,700. HK-1 chase test PASSED on all three legs (RSI 62.9 < 70, second consecutive bullish print 15:30 BUY-ADD 66 -> 17:00 SB-ADD 86, VWAP reclaimed at +2.02%). Quality_Pass False does NOT bind - the hard quality gate blocks new entries only, and this is an ADD to a held name. Scorecard haircut -2 applied (BreakoutUp_20D|buy n=10, hit_1w.40, hit_4w.125 - ACTIONABLE). CAVEAT, stated plainly: all three model horizons are FLAT (1wk +0.18%, 4wk +0.05%, 12wk +1.31%) and the row is PROFIT_ARMED at T12_Progress 98.59 - the forward model sees almost nothing left above here, so this is a risk-defined breakout trade to Target_Price 42.62, not a forward-estimate trade. Target_12Week 40.33 EXCEEDS DCF_per_share 37.84 - projection assumes growth beyond priced-in. Avg_Cost is BLANK so ADR-0012 cannot compute real profit progress and the PROFIT_ARMED flag is not actionable (no-guess rule). Rate-event risk acknowledged: Jackson Hole keynote 28-Aug and US PCE 26-Aug are two-sided for a REIT. Stop 38.70 applies to the full 4,700 post-fill. WITHDRAW if not filled by 2026-08-26 or if conviction drops below 65. |
| 2513 | Z.AI / Knowledge Atlas | 1129.00 | SELL 30% | 1129.00 | 975.00 | 1160.11 (+2.8%) | 1128.65 (-0.0%) | 1286.06 (+13.9%) | A partial de-risk on the book's largest and most-underwater position. Z.AI printed a fresh STRONG SELL - REDUCE at conviction 76 into the settled close (Sell_Rank 2, FailedBreakout_Down_20D - the book's best-sampled sell cell at n=62), the structure is a confirmed lower-high sequence -> 1129, close below both EMA20 1166 and EMA50 1254), and at x 1,129 the position is HK = 20.2% of the book while sitting 31% below cost. Trimming 30% banks HKand cuts single-name concentration to roughly 14%, while deliberately leaving exposed to the two structural catalysts now six sessions out. Valuation is blind here (Val_Signal NA, no DCF) so no amplify or tier bump. News: none found in the 08-20/21 window; the most recent dated item is 10-Jul (share sale to fund R&D + GLM-5.2 open-sourced, stock then HK) - stale, mildly confirming as a dilution overhang. SIZE DEVIATION, stated explicitly: the engine asked for 85.46% = (800 after lot-rounding); this card takes 30% = instead. Basis is the CATALYST-AWARE HOLD clause - MSCI ACWI inclusion effective at the 31-Aug close and maiden interim results due on/before 31-Aug (LR 13.49(6), announceable any session from Monday), with the Hang Seng quarterly review announced today. That clause permits a trim only on a confirmed lower-high or a decisive stop break; the lower-high IS confirmed so the trim fires, but dumping 80%+ of the position INTO a confirmed index add is precisely the pre-trim the clause forbids. Second reason to size down: the model's own forward view contradicts a thesis exit - Est_1W 1160.11 is +2.75% ABOVE the action price and Est_12W 1286.06 is +13.9%, with Est_4W flat at -0.03%. Per HK-9 an hk sell signal is a ONE-WEEK tactical instrument (hit_1w.525, hit_4w.356) and its 4wk decay is not a thesis; this is a 1-week de-risk, not an exit. HK-11 does NOT bind: the 08-18 card was WITHDRAWN on 08-19 when the trigger vanished (AVOID cv54, Portion 0, Sell_Rank blank), so the consecutive-session chain is broken and today is a fresh origination, not a fourth re-issue. Also NOT a profit-take - Gain_ATR -3.77 and the row carries no PROFIT_ARMED flag. Market-on-open at the 1,129.00 anchor close-reference (band 1,095.48-1,162.52); reprice if Monday's open gaps >~1.5%. Residual : trail RAISED 875.71 -> 975.00, set just under the Est_1W_Low band of 990.67 (-1.15xATR, HK-12 pass - the model's own Stop_Price 1,128.99 sits AT the close and is degenerate, rejected). qty_after 700. |
| 0700 | Tencent | 457.00 | HOLD | 457.00 | 430.00 | 451.80 (-1.1%) | 450.07 (-1.5%) | 457.36 (+0.1%) | Prints the book's #1 sell - STRONG SELL - REDUCE cv76, Sell_Rank 1, 85.46, adjusted 77 - and is deliberately NOT acted on. The exit thread was RETIRED on 08-17 to a 430.00 WATCH line, which is also the news overlay's own standing override, and the settled close of 457.00 is 6.3% above it; HK-11 forbids re-issuing a retired exit. Trend is genuinely weak (below EMA200 499.89, Est_12W 457.36 = +0.08% dead money) but the position is = HK1.6% of the book - not worth spending the escalation. Kuaishou's 19-Aug interims were the nearest read-through and 1024 has since faded to AVOID cv52, mildly confirming the caution. RE-ARM: decisive settled close < 430.00. DATA ERROR unchanged: Avg_Cost 1.00 produces Unreal_PnL_Pct +45,600% and Gain_ATR 38.77, which falsely sets PROFIT_ARMED - systemic finding #3, needs a real in input/hkportfolio.json. |
| 1347 | Hua Hong Semiconductor | 114.80 | HOLD | 114.80 | 105.00 | 120.97 (+5.4%) | 130.76 (+13.9%) | 134.33 (+17.0%) | The 08-19 HK-11 retirement is vindicated one session on. After four unexecuted exit cards the thread was retired to a 105.00 WATCH line; today the sell label is GONE - AVOID cv64, Sell_Rank blank, 0.0 - and the close has recovered 113.70 -> 114.80, back above EMA200 115.87 in touching distance. Had the 08-18 card been re-issued a fifth time it would now be repriced into a bounce. All three forward estimates are positive (1wk 120.97 +5.4%, 4wk 130.76 +13.9%, 12wk 134.33 +17.0%), which HK-9 reconciles - hk sells are a one-week instrument. Position -28.25% vs 160.00, = HKRE-ARM unchanged: decisive settled close < 105.00. STAND DOWN: reclaim > 125.00. HK-12: no usable model stop on an AVOID row (Stop_Price prints AT the close, 114.80); the 105.00 line stands. |
| 7709 | CSOP SK Hynix Daily (2x) Leveraged ETF | 39.64 | HOLD | 39.64 | 28.00 | 40.46 (+2.1%) | 38.79 (-2.1%) | 41.19 (+3.9%) | Sixth consecutive session retired, and the settled close supports it - AVOID cv60, not a sell label, stable across all four of today's prints. The 08-14 re-arm was 'decisive close < 28.00 OR a breakdown-family signal'; the close of 39.64 is 42% above the line and today's signal family is failed_breakout, not breakdown. The leveraged-2x rule caps any future action at a 50% trim =. South Korea's 1-20 August semiconductor export line printed today and NVIDIA's Q2 lands 26-Aug - both are live two-sided catalysts for a 2x SK Hynix tracker, another reason not to force an exit here. HK-12 RECURS: model Stop_Price 51.89 sits 30.9% ABOVE the 39.64 close - an INVERTED stop on a long, rejected (systemic finding #4, a sign error worth a sanity check in signals/exits.py). Trail HELD 28.00. Position -65.40% vs 114.56; whole position HKThe overlay's standing '7709 close below 101 -> full exit' override is 47 days stale and was blown through long ago. |
| 0522 | ASMPT | 161.70 | HOLD | 161.70 | 155.02 | 166.40 (+2.9%) | 180.94 (+11.9%) | 177.37 (+9.7%) | Yesterday's stop breach has healed: the close recovered 158.50 -> 161.70, back 4.3% ABOVE the 155.02 trail re-based on 08-19, so L2 never gets its second leg. NO TRADE cv0 with NoTrade_Reason quoted verbatim: 'Consensus conflict + low conviction'. Forward view remains the best in the book - Est_1W 166.40 +2.9%, Est_4W 180.94 +11.9%, Est_12W 177.37 +9.7% - which is exactly why L2 requires stop-break AND a negative 12wk before trimming. PROFIT_ARMED is SPURIOUS: T12_Progress 91.17 crosses the 90 line but Gain_ATR is -3.62 and the position is -17.65% vs Avg_Cost 196.35 (systemic finding #1). Quality gate F and MoS -4.71 GROWTH_PRICED_IN neither originate nor amplify a sell on a held name (CLAUDE.md s9). NVIDIA's 26-Aug results are the nearest read-through. Trail HELD 155.02. |
| 0939 | CCB - H | 9.24 | HOLD | 9.24 | 8.88 | 9.23 (-0.2%) | 9.36 (+1.2%) | 9.20 (-0.5%) | Still the steadiest holding - HOLD on all six prints, conviction -> ->, close 9.245 within a whisker of the 52-week high 9.36, Trend pillar 76. PROFIT_ARMED (T12_Progress 100.49) and ADR-0012 tick (c) DOES fire - Est_12W 9.20 is below 1.02 x 9.245 = 9.43, a dead forward view - but NO profit-take is issued: Avg_Cost is BLANK, so real profit progress is unknowable and ADR-0012 explicitly forbids guessing when Cost is unknown. Armed-without-actionable-arm therefore resolves to the mandatory trail-raise: 8.68 -> 8.88, the model's own Stop_Price at 2.03xATR below the close (HK-12 pass). Largest position by share count, = HKInterim results + interim dividend decision land 28-Aug - a direct, dated catalyst; hold through it per the catalyst-aware rule. RE-ARM unchanged: fresh SELL-REDUCE or decisive close < 8.88. |
| 0981 | SMIC | 72.50 | HOLD | 72.50 | 69.63 | 72.50 (+0.0%) | 75.01 (+3.5%) | 78.47 (+8.2%) | Recovered to HOLD cv47 on all four of today's prints after two sessions of NO TRADE, which extinguishes ADR-0012 tick (d). Close 72.50 sits above EMA20 70.58 and EMA200 68.90; forward view positive at Est_4W +3.5% and Est_12W +8.2%. PROFIT_ARMED (T12_Progress 92.39) but Avg_Cost is BLANK - ADR-0012's no-guess rule blocks any profit-take, same as 0939. Trail HELD 69.63 (0.77xATR below the close; the model's own 65.05 is looser and rejected in its favour). MoS -5.31 GROWTH_PRICED_IN does not originate a sell on a held name. Two dated catalysts: Korea's semiconductor export line today and NVIDIA 26-Aug. Note the foundry pair continues to decouple - 0981 held while 1347 sits 36% below its own EMA20. |
| 2888 | Standard Chartered | 234.00 | HOLD | 234.00 | 229.36 | 233.81 (-0.1%) | 235.66 (+0.7%) | 225.89 (-3.5%) | HOLD cv60 at the close, close 234.00 just 2.5% off the 52-week high 240.00 and far above EMA200 194.60. PROFIT_ARMED (T12_Progress 103.59) with tick (c) firing again - Est_12W 225.89 is below 1.02 x 234.00 = 238.68 - but the thread was RETIRED on 08-13 with re-arm 'decisive close < 230.19 OR fresh SELL-REDUCE' and neither has triggered; HK-11 binds, a retired mechanism re-firing is not a new origination. Avg_Cost is BLANK in any case, so ADR-0012's no-guess rule independently blocks a profit-take. Trail HELD 229.36 (0.94xATR, tighter than the model's 224.74); the 230.19 re-arm sits just 0.83 above it so one decisive session resolves this either way. Smallest position in the book, = HKJackson Hole 28-Aug is the live rate catalyst. |
| 0005 | HSBC Holdings | 162.90 | HOLD | 162.90 | 159.50 | 163.07 (+0.1%) | 162.83 (-0.0%) | 162.42 (-0.3%) | Strengthened materially through the session - HOLD -> -> - and closed 162.90, up 1.05%, within 4.0% of the 52-week high 169.70 and 18.6% above EMA200 137.38. The exit thread was RETIRED 08-06 to a 159.50 WATCH line and the close is 2.1% above it, so HK-11 binds. PROFIT_ARMED (T12_Progress 100.30) but Avg_Cost is BLANK - no-guess rule, no profit-take. Forward view is flat (Est_1W +0.10%, Est_4W -0.04%, Est_12W -0.29%): dead money but not a sell, and at = HKthis is the book's single largest position by value at 34.9% of holdings. Trail HELD 159.50 (1.35xATR below the close, tighter than the model's 157.87). HK July CPI printed today, HK external trade 25-Aug, Jackson Hole 28-Aug - all rate-relevant, all two-sided. |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
177 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.261 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
49 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.