Recommendations
0 to acquire · 3 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| 1347 | Hua Hong Semiconductor | 115.10 | SELL 85.46% | 115.10 | 105.00 | 121.15 (+5.3%) | 128.25 (+11.4%) | 129.65 (+12.6%) | Hua Hong is the book's strongest sell signal today: a stable STRONG SELL - REDUCE ranked #1 for disposal, printed in all four of the day's snapshots with conviction strengthening, and it is simultaneously the most expensive name we own on intrinsic value with a margin of safety of -19.4. The stock jumped 4.9% on its Hang Seng inclusion day, which is exactly the strength we want to sell into rather than chase. We take the model's own 85% portion and keep a 500-share residual. Operational: 09-04 card pre-committed the 09-07 post-inclusion EOD as the re-arm date and that test is met; valuation one-tier amplify to a full exit WITHHELD under HK-9(b) because the forward pair is positive (Est_4W +11.4%, Est_12W +12.6%); board lot 500 so 2,563.8 floors to 2,500; residual stop 105.00 because the model's 115.09 against a 115.10 close is a zero-width stop rejected under HK-12; FailedBreakout_Down_20D|sell bias decayed to +0 (n=66). · news |
| 0981 | SMIC | 68.30 | SELL 50% | 68.30 | 62.78 | 68.58 (+0.4%) | 70.85 (+3.7%) | 69.34 (+1.5%) | SMIC has now closed below its risk line for five straight sessions while still printing a STRONG SELL signal that is getting stronger, not weaker (conviction. A stop that has been broken for a week is not a stop, and the position is also richly priced on intrinsic value at -4.7 margin of safety. We cut 40% and re-base the risk line on what is left rather than keep arguing with a flat forward estimate. Operational: this is the 09-04 interim pre-commitment firing verbatim (FIFTH consecutive close below 69.63 with the STRONG SELL label intact ALONE originates a mandatory 30% trim regardless of the 12wk sign) - breach path 68.85/68.25/68.05/67.20/68.30; MoS -4.66 amplifies 30% one tier to 50%, 1,250 floors to 1,000 on board lot 500 = effective 40%; NOT a profit-take (PROFIT_ARMED prints but Avg_Cost is blank so arming rests on the degenerate T12_Progress branch); residual stop re-based 69.63 to 62.78 (model live stop, ~2 ATR). · news |
| 0522 | ASMPT | 167.70 | SELL 85.46% | 165.70 | 155.02 | 171.06 (+3.2%) | 179.43 (+8.3%) | 181.38 (+9.5%) | ASMPT prints a stable STRONG SELL - REDUCE across all four of today's snapshots, ranked #3 for disposal, and it is expensive on intrinsic value at -4.3 margin of safety while the position sits 14.6% underwater. Two events land within three sessions - the Apple keynote and TSMC's August revenue - both two-sided for back-end equipment, and we would rather take the de-risk before them than after. We sell 82% and keep a 200-share residual. Operational: action price 165.70 is the Yahoo-VERIFIED close, not the CSV's 167.70 - the only one of four quote checks that disagreed with the tape - and it sits inside the provenance band 165.40-170.00 while being the conservative figure for a sell; valuation one-tier amplify to full exit WITHHELD under HK-9(b) on a positive forward pair (Est_4W +8.3%, Est_12W +9.5%); board lot 100 so 940.1 floors to 900; residual stop HELD at 155.02 because the model's 149.34 would lower the risk line (HK-12); fresh re-issue after five holds, NOT an HK-11 re-proposal (last dispose card 08-28, withdrawn 08-31). · news |
| 2888 | STANCHART | 239.60 | HOLD | — | 232.00 | 237.91 | 233.79 | 232.66 | Highest-conviction name in the book at 100, so we hold and simply raise the protective stop from 229.90 to 232.00 to lock in more of the gain. We are not adding, because the model's own four- and twelve-week estimates both sit slightly below today's price. Operational: row carries RSI_DIV + PROFIT_ARMED which would be an ADR-0012 armed+fired 30% trim, but the arming is INVALID on this book - Avg_Cost is blank so Gain_ATR cannot be computed and the flag rests on the degenerate T12_Progress branch (102.98); standing 09-04 rule applies (no profit-take without a real Avg_Cost); forward pair negative (Est_4W -2.4%, Est_12W -2.9%) - the same reason the 09-04 STRONG BUY - ADD was declined. |
| 0005 | HSBC HDGS | 167.60 | HOLD | — | 163.18 | 168.27 | 163.68 | 167.18 | HSBC holds at conviction 79 and we tighten the protective stop from 160.17 to 163.18, following the model's own level up. It is the book's largest liquid position at HK, so protecting it matters more than adding to it. Operational: PROFIT_ARMED prints but Avg_Cost is blank - no valid ADR-0012 arming, no trim; NA_CCY so the valuation layer is blind on this name. |
| 2513 | KNOWLEDGE ATLAS | 1018.00 | HOLD | — | 980.00 | 1059.12 | 1056.25 | 1175.77 | The book's largest position at HK and 18.4% of capital, down 37.7%, but there is no sell basis today - AVOID is not a reduce signal and the 980 line has not been breached. We hold and watch. The one thing to flag is that tomorrow's Hong Kong IPO lock-up release wave lands directly on this name, making it the highest-variance line we own going into the week. Operational: no card written because no origination class fires (CLAUDE.md section 9); WATCH 980.00 carried unchanged; valuation NA. |
| 3750 | CATL | 572.50 | HOLD | — | 556.49 | 575.42 | 569.15 | 589.12 | CATL's sell case has dissolved - the signal flipped from a strong sell to a HOLD on an oversold-reversal pattern, and the stock closed at 572.50, above the 556.49 line we pre-committed to. We stand down for a second session, which has now saved about HKversus the two sell cards we did not issue. Operational: HK-11 retirement honoured and vindicated (label 75/75/67 STRONG SELL -> HOLD cv62); numeric test close < 556.49 not met; adj 58 = 62 -4 on MoS -0.88. |
| 0823 | LINK REIT | 38.80 | HOLD | — | 38.70 | 38.70 | 38.86 | 38.48 | Link REIT closed at 38.80, just ten cents above its stop, for the third session running. No signal either way - the engine prints NO TRADE on consensus conflict - so we hold the line where it is and let the next close decide. Operational: no model Stop_Price on a NoTrade row so 38.70 is carried; NoTrade_Reason verbatim 'Consensus conflict + low conviction'. |
| 0939 | CCB - H SHS | 9.53 | HOLD | — | 9.35 | 9.56 | 9.72 | 9.68 | CCB closed at 9.535 with no actionable signal, comfortably above its 9.35 stop. We hold unchanged. China CPI and PPI on 09-09 is the next thing that moves it. Operational: NO TRADE cv0 across all four snapshots, no model stop, 9.35 carried; NA_CCY so valuation is blind. |
| 7709 | XL2CSOPHYNIX | 41.06 | HOLD | — | 28.00 | 41.15 | 43.85 | 41.57 | The leveraged ETF holds at 41.06 with an AVOID label but no reduce signal, and the 28.00 line is untouched. Per the standing leveraged-ETF rule we trim rather than exit these, and neither condition is met today. Operational: model Stop_Price 49.23 is 19.9% ABOVE the close - inverted and unusable (HK-12) - so the manual 28.00 stands; AVOID cv63 flat, no origination class fires. |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
199 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.249 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
49 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.