Recommendations
1 to acquire · 3 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| 0857 | PETROCHINA CO LTD H SHS | 10.35 | BUY — QUEUED @10.50 | 10.50 | 9.71 | 10.34 (-1.5%) | 10.38 (-1.1%) | 10.34 (-1.5%) | PetroChina reported record first-half profit today, up 22% year on year, and the shares broke out 3.9% to a new 20-day high on the news. It is the only name in the book that is both cheap on our valuation work (undervalued, DCF HKagainst a HKclose) and passing the quality screen while printing a live buy signal, and it ranks first on conviction at 86. We are buying it with a stop-entry above the market so the order only fills if the breakout keeps going. OPERATIONAL: buy-stop @10.50 (board lot 2,000; 71.55% x HK x 20% = HKnotional, size modulator held at 1.0x rather than the 1.25x UNDERVALUED+Quality_Pass permits, because Est_1W/4W/12W are all flat to slightly negative -- this is a 2.0:1 risk-defined breakout to Target_Price 12.08 against a 9.71 stop, not a forward-return bet). HK-1 chase confirmations all met (RSI 61.1 < 70; bullish 4/4 snapshots; entry AT the model level). L6 tension acknowledged: this is a post-results move, but a buy-stop above the close structurally cannot round-trip into a fill. HK-4/HK-10: no_chase_queue grades 'cost' on wh_4w (+5.26%, n=32) for a fifth read. Event risk: 09-09 China CPI/PPI is HIGH impact and touches 0857. Prior 08-28 queue @10.19 was withdrawn 08-31; this is a fresh, stronger re-origination, not an HK-11 re-issue. expires_on 2026-09-11. · news |
| 2513 | KNOWLEDGE ATLAS (Z.AI) | 916.00 | SELL 85.46% | 916.00 | 810.00 | 984.65 (+7.5%) | 1017.25 (+11.1%) | 1093.99 (+19.4%) | The stock fell 10% today as Hong Kong's September IPO lock-up release wave hit, breaking decisively through our HKrisk line and closing at HK -- and the signal engine simultaneously escalated it to a strong sell at the second-highest sell rank in the book. The position is already down 44% from cost and remains one of the two largest lines; we are cutting 80% of it and keeping a small residual. OPERATIONAL: market-at-open (85.46% x 1,000 = 854. 100), leaves, proceeds ~HKThis is a TRIGGERED RETIREMENT, not an HK-11 re-issue -- the 08-28 retirement's numeric re-arm (WATCH 980.00) was breached by 6.53%. Model Entry_Price is a Sell Limit @946.07, ABOVE the close, which would not fill on a gap-down open -- rejected for market-at-open; 916.00 sits inside the provenance band 889.50-942.50. All three Est_* are POSITIVE (+7.5%/+11.1%/+19.4%) -- the exit steps out of a positive model forward view; basis is the breached risk line plus the stable REDUCE label, which HK-9 grades as a ONE-WEEK instrument. Residual stop set to 810.00 (~1 ATR) because the model's 618.26 is -32.5% and degenerate-width under HK-12. The 09-07 horizon named this exact ticker for this exact date. Yahoo quote/news returned HTTP 503 twice; search surfaced only a stale 10-Jul-2026 share-sale item, not today's cause. |
| 0522 | ASMPT | 161.40 | SELL 85.46% | 161.40 | 155.02 | 164.18 (+1.7%) | 170.68 (+5.7%) | 169.54 (+5.0%) | ASMPT has printed a stable strong-sell signal for three straight snapshots on the book's most reliable exit pattern, and the shares fell another 3.8% today. The position is 17.8% below cost and the stock looks expensive against our fair-value work. We are taking the model's full trim ahead of next week's Apple keynote and TSMC revenue print, both of which move this name in either direction. OPERATIONAL: market-at-open (85.46% x 1,100 = 940. 100), leaves, proceeds ~HKVALUATION AMPLIFY WITHHELD: MoS -4.30 <= -3 qualifies for the one-tier bump to a full exit, but HK-9(b) forbids justifying a full exit on the 4-week view and the forward pair is positive (Est_4W +5.8%, Est_12W +5.0%). Session 2 of this card; the 09-07 card did not execute, costing HKResidual stop HELD at 155.02 -- the model's 141.07 would LOWER the risk line (HK-12). Yahoo prev close 167.700 CONFIRMS the CSV and closes the 09-07 price-divergence systemic finding. · news |
| 0981 | SMIC | 65.35 | SELL 40% | 65.35 | 62.78 | 66.01 (+1.0%) | 67.08 (+2.6%) | 67.20 (+2.8%) | SMIC has now closed below our risk line for six sessions running while still printing a sell signal, and it fell another 4.3% today. We recommended this same trim yesterday and it was not executed; the delay has cost roughly HKso far. The stock is also expensive on our fair-value work. We are repeating the de-risk rather than letting the position keep bleeding. OPERATIONAL: market-at-open @65.35, leaves, proceeds ~HKCARRIED CARD, NOT A FRESH ORIGINATION -- adjusted conviction 58 is BELOW the 65 floor (raw cv decayed; carried under HK-11 (session 2) and L3, supported by counterfactuals.optional_trim (n=56, wh_4w +3.53%, 'saved' -- HK-5). Size held at the carried card's own, NOT the model's 85.46%, and the MoS -4.66 tier bump is NOT applied -- amplifying a sub-floor carry would manufacture size the live signal does not support. NOT a profit-take: PROFIT_ARMED prints but Avg_Cost is blank, so arming rests on the degenerate T12_Progress branch; ADR-0012 is honoured on this book only via Gain_ATR >= 3.0 on a real Avg_Cost. Residual stop HELD at 62.78 (model's 59.53 would lower it, HK-12). ESCALATION NOTICE: if unexecuted at the 09-09 open this is escalated ONCE more and then RETIRED to a WATCH line at 62.78 -- it will NOT be proposed a fourth time. · news |
| 3750 | CATL | 562.00 | HOLD | — | 556.49 | 564.62 | 561.18 | 563.67 | CATL is showing the strongest sell signal in the whole book today, but we are deliberately not acting on it. We already recommended selling this position six times without it being executed, so we retired it to a pre-agreed price trigger at HK; today's close of HKis just under 1% above that line, so the trigger has not fired and we hold. A close below HKsells it immediately. OPERATIONAL: HK-11 RETIREMENT HONOURED, third session. STRONG SELL - REDUCE cv82, Sell_Rank #1, escalating HOLD/61 -> SELL/61 -> SELL/72 -> STRONG SELL/82 intraday. Six unexecuted sell cards (08-25, 08-26, 08-28, 09-01, 09-02, 09-03) preceded the retirement. FLAGGED FOR THE LEARNINGS REVIEW as the sharpest test HK-11 has faced -- a pure price re-arm cannot distinguish 'signal decayed, retirement correct' from 'signal escalated to its strongest-ever reading and we are standing aside'; proposed amendment is a conviction-escalation clause (re-arm on the price line OR cv >= 80 at Sell_Rank #1 with a stable REDUCE label). Est_4W -0.1%, Est_12W +0.3% -- dead forward view either way. |
| 0700 | TENCENT | 435.40 | HOLD | — | 430.00 | 430.13 | 432.17 | 435.71 | Tencent is printing a strong sell signal again, but like CATL it was retired to a pre-agreed price trigger at HKafter repeated unexecuted recommendations. Today's close of HKis 1.2% above that line, so we hold. The position is small at and immaterial to the book either way. OPERATIONAL: HK-11 RETIREMENT HONOURED, second session. STRONG SELL - REDUCE cv76, Sell_Rank #3, on RallySell_BearTrend (+3, the book's best sell cell). The 430.00 line coincides with the stale overlay's standing 0700 override, so it is carried unchanged. Cumulative non-execution since retirement is HK (442.80 -> 435.40 on). Est_1W -1.2%, Est_4W -0.7%, Est_12W +0.1%. |
| 2888 | STANCHART | 239.40 | HOLD | — | 232.73 | 237.71 | 233.13 | 230.51 | Standard Chartered is holding up well and we are raising the protective stop under it rather than taking any money off the table. The signal is neutral-to-positive but the model's own forward estimates are slightly negative, so we neither add nor trim. OPERATIONAL: trail raised 232.00 -> 232.73 (model's live Stop_Price), close 239.40. PROFIT_ARMED prints but Avg_Cost is blank, so arming rests on the degenerate T12_Progress branch and is INVALID on this book per the standing 09-04 rule. Est_4W 233.13 (-2.6%), Est_12W 230.51 (-3.7%). |
| 0005 | HSBC HDGS(USD0.50) HK O'SEAS | 164.90 | HOLD | — | 163.18 | 165.04 | 163.23 | 163.56 | HSBC is the book's largest position at roughly 37% of assets and it slipped 1.6% today, leaving it only about 1% above our protective stop -- the tightest it has been. The signal engine has gone flat on it. We hold, but this is the line to watch. OPERATIONAL: flipped HOLD cv60 (3 snapshots) -> NO TRADE cv0 ('Consensus conflict + low conviction'), so there is no model Stop_Price to raise from; trail HELD at 163.18 vs a 164.90 close. HK (36.9%). PROFIT_ARMED with blank Avg_Cost -> no trim. Est_4W -1.0%, Est_12W -0.8%. |
| 0939 | CCB - H SHS | 9.56 | HOLD | — | 9.35 | 9.58 | 9.69 | 9.71 | China Construction Bank was the best-behaved holding in the book on a heavy down day, closing up on the session with a mildly positive outlook. We hold and keep the existing stop. OPERATIONAL: HOLD cv63, close 9.56. Model Stop_Price 9.06 would LOWER the risk line -- refused under HK-12; stop HELD at 9.35. |
| 0823 | LINK REIT | 38.72 | HOLD | — | 38.70 | 38.70 | 38.62 | 38.56 | Link REIT closed two cents above our stop for the fourth session running -- effectively sitting on the line. The signal is flat and the forward view is slightly negative. We hold, but any decisive break of HKtriggers an immediate exit. OPERATIONAL: NO TRADE 4/4, close 38.72 vs stop 38.70 (0.05% clearance). Est_12W 38.56 (-0.4%) -- a decisive break of 38.70 arms the L2 stop-break + negative-12wk exit on the spot. |
| 7709 | XL2CSOPHYNIX | 41.70 | HOLD | — | 28.00 | 42.28 | 44.46 | 42.11 | This leveraged ETF fell another 5.3% and is 64% below cost, but the signal is weak rather than decisive and leveraged products of this type have repeatedly bounced after we exited them. We hold against the manual HKline. OPERATIONAL: AVOID cv52, close 41.70. Model Stop_Price 51.80 is 24.2% ABOVE the close -- inverted and unusable (HK-12); manual WATCH 28.00 stands. Leveraged-ETF doctrine applies (trim, never full-exit on a low-conviction reversal). |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
202 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.241 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
49 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.