Recommendations
2 to acquire · 3 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| 2888 | Standard Chartered | 246.60 | ADD | 245.87 | 236.74 | 245.82 (-0.0%) | 241.16 (-1.9%) | 244.31 (-0.6%) | Adding to Standard Chartered as its breakout signal returned at high conviction, meeting the exact re-entry condition we set when we withdrew the last add. The bank is not stretched past its entry, but the model sees little upside over the next three months, so we add only one normal slice. OPS: re-arm (fresh BUY-family label cv>=65) met - T6. adj 88 = 90 + 0 (NA_CCY) - 2 (BreakoutUp_20D|buy n=14). Entry_Distance -0.16, RSI 66.7; buy-stop 245.87 already through (close 246.60) -> market at open, reprice if gap >1.5%. 70.29% x (lot 50). Stop raised 233.08 -> 236.74 whole position. Est_12W 244.31 below entry - flagged HK-B, down-weighted per T5. L7 conflict: hkfin SELL 2888 on 09-11. shares to trade (post-execution 598). · news |
| 0992 | Lenovo Group Limited | 32.14 | BUY | 32.14 | 31.32 | 31.81 (-1.0%) | 32.78 (+2.0%) | 33.23 (+3.4%) | Opening a position in Lenovo, the highest-quality company in this book's universe, after a second straight buy signal at the model's entry price with momentum back above its average cost line. Valuation is roughly fair and recent coverage highlights its dividend and AI device push. OPS: 2nd consecutive BUY print satisfies HK-1 confirmation; RSI 58.9, close above VWAP 30.85, Entry_Distance 0.00 -> ACT-NOW. adj 72 = 76 - 3 (MoS -0.69) - 1 (FailedBreakdown_Up_20D|buy n=16). Quality PASS F7 rank 1/31. 70.59% x 600k x 20% = 84,708 -> -> lot = HKsize x1.0. Stop 31.32 tight (0.47 ATR, at session low). L7: hksemicon +@31.49 today, same direction, separate cash. · news |
| 2513 | Z.AI (KNOWLEDGE ATLAS) | 721.00 | SELL 85.46% | 722.50 | 682.51 | 785.60 (+8.7%) | 834.52 (+15.5%) | 831.87 (+15.1%) | Selling most of Z.AI after a 9% drop on the first day it traded on a US$5bn share and convertible-bond raise priced 10% below the prior close. The sell signal is now the strongest in the book and new supply plus bond-hedge selling is likely to weigh for days, so we cut the position rather than wait for a bounce. OPS: S.SELL-RED cv81 Sell_Rank #1 (re-strengthened from cv60). Amended HK-11 (09-13): retirement requires signal decay - signal re-strengthened; re-arm cv>=65 leg met, 'rally above 913.50' leg struck by Q2/U3. adj 82 = 81 + 0 (NA) + 1. Action 722.50 = provenance band floor (Entry 744.73 +/- 0.25 x 90.43); engine rally-sell limit not used (P3). If open < 722.50 re-validate and sell at market (L8). 85.46% x (lot 100). Horizon: placement HK + RMB20.14bn CB, HIGH, down, band -15/+4, trim-into. Est_* +8.7/+15.5/+15.1% contradict - down-weighted T5. Residual WATCH 682.51 (model 468.93 degenerate, refused). shares to trade. · news |
| 3750 | CATL | 549.00 | SELL 85.46% | 549.00 | 517.08 | 549.10 (+0.0%) | 550.67 (+0.3%) | 545.74 (-0.6%) | Cutting CATL by two-thirds: the battery maker remains below the price line we set for acting, its sell signal has strengthened, and the model sees no upside over any horizon. Last session's identical sell was not executed, so this is the single escalation. OPS: S.SELL-RED cv68 (from 55), close 549.00 still 1.35% below the broken 556.49 line. adj 69 = 68 + 0 (G2: EPV 302.8 vs DCF 724.5) + 1 (FailedBreakout_Down_20D|sell n=70) - clears floor. 85.46% x (lot 100). Residual stop raised 513.60 -> 517.08. PROFIT_ARMED on -27% = P1 artifact. HK-11 amended: if unexecuted, retire to WATCH 517.08 only on signal decay. shares to trade. · news |
| 0981 | SMIC | 61.30 | SELL 85.46% | 61.30 | 56.87 | 62.21 (+1.5%) | 62.53 (+2.0%) | 64.39 (+5.0%) | Selling most of SMIC because it closed decisively below the price line we committed to in advance as the point where this exit fires. The signal's confidence has faded and the model still sees modest upside, so this rests on honouring the pre-set risk line, not on a strong new signal. OPS: WATCH 62.78 re-arm fires - close 61.30 = -2.36% / 0.62 ATR, decisive (T6; closes the T4 latch). adj 31 = 30 + 0 (G2: EPV 9.94, DCF blank - amplify/tier-bump suppressed) + 1 - BELOW FLOOR, carried by the pre-committed re-arm; L2 NOT met (12wk +5.0%). Conviction collapse. 85.46% x (lot 500). Residual 500 stop rebased 56.87. Ranked over 0700/0823 on dollar bleed. shares to trade. · news |
| 0700 | TENCENT | 430.60 | NO ACTION | 430.60 | 415.64 | 426.67 (-0.9%) | 425.51 (-1.2%) | 419.27 (-2.6%) | Tencent's sell signal strengthened again, and a trim of clears the bar, but it lost the last of three sell slots to larger positions. It is next in line. OPS: S.SELL-RED cv73 Sell_Rank #2, 5th consecutive REDUCE; adj 74. 09-11 retirement to WATCH 415.64 NOT applied under amended HK-11 (signal strengthened; rally-above-443.06 leg struck U3). Would be SELL @430.60 market. Promotes on any top-3 execution/withdrawal or close < 415.64. Stop held 415.64 (model 411.31 lower refused). |
| 0823 | LINK REIT | 37.18 | NO ACTION | 37.59 | 36.74 | 37.21 (-1.0%) | 37.60 (+0.0%) | 37.23 (-1.0%) | Link REIT's breakdown signal strengthened and a half-position trim clears the bar, but it ranks fifth by dollars at risk behind three larger exits. OPS: SELL-RED cv73 (from 64) Sell_Rank #3; adj 74. Engine rally-sell limit 37.59 = 0.63 ATR above close 37.18. Valuation row degenerate (FV = price, EPV -35.7) -> no amplify. Would be SELL @37.59 limit. Close < 36.74 promotes into a slot. Stop held 36.74 (model 35.46 lower refused). |
| 0522 | ASMPT | 154.30 | HOLD | 154.30 | 155.02⚠ | 160.76 (+4.2%) | 162.47 (+5.3%) | 164.62 (+6.7%) | Holding ASMPT for now: a sell signal appeared and the price slipped just under our watch line, but only by a sliver, the signal is below our confidence bar and the model still sees upside. A slightly deeper close would trigger the exit. OPS: S.SELL-RED cv55 adj 59 < 65. Close 154.30 vs WATCH 155.02 = -0.46% / 0.08 ATR graze, not decisive; 12wk +6.7% -> L2 not met. Decisive line 152.83 (0.25 ATR). Model stop 136.75 lower refused. -21.42%. |
| 1347 | Hua Hong Semiconductor | 106.50 | HOLD | 106.50 | 105.00 | 110.41 (+3.7%) | 116.64 (+9.5%) | 116.47 (+9.4%) | Holding Hua Hong on its watch line: the sell label returned but at very low confidence, and the price is still above the level at which we act. OPS: S.SELL-RED cv27 adj 28; close 106.50 1.4% above WATCH 105.00; re-arm (close < 105.00 or fresh REDUCE cv >= 65) not met. Model stop 96.03 lower refused. -33.44%. |
| 0005 | HSBC HDGS | 164.90 | HOLD | 164.90 | 163.18 | 165.13 (+0.1%) | 163.96 (-0.6%) | 164.65 (-0.2%) | Holding HSBC, the book's largest position, which recovered a little above its stop; there is no sell signal and the model's outlook is flat. The stop is honoured strictly into this week's US rate decision. OPS: HOLD cv63 (from 55); close 164.90, 1.05% above 163.18 (near-stop S9a). Model stop 160.05 lower refused. 38.5% of book. |
| 7709 | XL2CSOPHYNIX | 37.02 | HOLD | 37.02 | 34.40 | 39.67 (+7.2%) | 41.57 (+12.3%) | 39.17 (+5.8%) | Holding the leveraged SK Hynix ETF after a sharp 14% fall: there is no sell signal, and it remains above its protective stop. Leveraged products are exited only on a confirmed breakdown. OPS: HOLD cv52; close 37.02 (-13.67%), 7.6% above stop 34.40. Leveraged-2x rule blocks. Model stop 28.14 lower refused. -67.69%. |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
216 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.241 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
49 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.