Recommendations
0 to acquire · 3 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| 0005 | HSBC HDGS(USD0.50) HK O'SEAS | 159.60 | SELL 50% | 159.60 | 153.52 | 159.74 (+0.1%) | 159.36 (-0.2%) | 160.75 (+0.7%) | Halving HSBC after it closed decisively below the protective stop we committed to honour, while the model's conviction collapsed and its three-month view went flat. With the Fed decision landing while Hong Kong is closed, we cut the risk rather than hope. OPS: close 159.60 vs recorded stop 163.18 = -2.19% / 1.18 ATR (decisive). HOLD cv63 -> 32 collapse; Target_12Week 160.75 < 1.02x close (dead). adj 34 = 32 + 0 (NA_CCY) + 2 (FailedBreakdown_Up_20D|sell n=5) - below floor, carried by the decisive break. L2 trim (12wk flat, not negative) -> 50% not 100% (stated assumption). lot 400; proceeds ~HKResidual stop 153.52 (model, 2.0 ATR). PROFIT_ARMED ignored (P1). Reprice if open gaps >1.5%. · news |
| 0522 | ASMPT | 154.10 | SELL 85.46% | 154.10 | 138.22 | 158.28 (+2.7%) | 161.36 (+4.7%) | 163.88 (+6.3%) | Selling most of ASMPT as its bear-trend sell signal strengthened for a second session; this is the book's most reliable sell pattern over a one-week horizon, and the position is already down about 22%. OPS: RallySell_BearTrend S.SELL-RED, Sell_Rank #4; adj 72 = 68 + 0 (G2: DCF blank, MoS -4.07 tier bump suppressed) + 4 (n=30). Also grazes WATCH 155.02 (0.12 ATR, not the basis). 85.46% x = (lot 100, R7). Proceeds ~HKEst_* disagree (+2.7%/+4.7%/+6.3%) - T5 down-weighted. Residual stop 138.22 (model 2.0 ATR); pre-execution decisive line 152.83. HK-9: 1-week instrument. · news |
| 0981 | SMIC | 60.75 | SELL 85.46% | 60.75 | 56.35 | 61.40 (+1.1%) | 61.33 (+1.0%) | 62.93 (+3.6%) | Re-issuing the SMIC reduction that fired yesterday and was not executed: the stock remains below the line we pre-committed to act on, and the sell signal is still in place. OPS: 62.78 re-arm fired 09-14 (0.62 ATR), unexecuted 09-15 open; close 60.75 = 0.85 ATR below. S.SELL-RED cv27, adj 29 = 27 + 0 (G2) + 2 (BreakdownDown_20D|sell n=22) - below floor, carried by T6 pre-commitment; keeps slot over 3750/0700/0823 on dollar bleed per 09-14 precedent. 85.46% x (lot 500). Proceeds ~HKHK-11: session 2 unexecuted; at session 3 retire to WATCH 56.35 only if signal decayed off REDUCE. Residual 500 stop 56.35 (model). · news |
| 3750 | CATL | 516.00 | NO ACTION | 530.50 | 511.94 | 519.91 (-2.0%) | 521.27 (-1.7%) | 525.39 (-1.0%) | CATL's sell signal still clears the bar for a 100-share trim, but it lost the last sell slot to larger positions; it is next in line. OPS: SELL-RED cv73 (from S.SELL-RED 68), Sell_Rank #2, adj 75. Engine Sell Limit 535.16 is 0.93 ATR above close 516.00; provenance band floor 530.02 -> 530.50. Portion 49.87% x (R7). HK-11: 09-14 escalation unexecuted, signal not decayed -> carried not re-escalated. WATCH 517.08 grazed (0.05 ATR); decisive line 511.94 promotes it (model stop 455.70 refused). |
| 0700 | TENCENT | 438.80 | NO ACTION | 438.80 | 416.17 | 434.89 (-0.9%) | 430.27 (-1.9%) | 429.25 (-2.2%) | Tencent's sell signal strengthened for a sixth straight session and a 100-share trim clears the bar, but it lost the slot on dollar size; next in line. OPS: S.SELL-RED cv76 Sell_Rank #1, adj 77. Would be SELL @438.80 market (171 model -> 100; would be a full exit). Stop raised 415.64 -> 416.17 (model). Avg_Cost 1.00 junk (P1). |
| 0823 | LINK REIT | 36.80 | NO ACTION | 36.87 | 36.74 | 37.07 (+0.5%) | 37.34 (+1.3%) | 36.33 (-1.5%) | Link REIT's sell signal holds and a half trim clears the bar, but it ranks sixth on dollars; it sits just above its stop and promotes on a close below it. OPS: SELL-RED cv72 Sell_Rank #3, adj 74. Would be SELL @36.87 limit (EDA +0.11). Close 36.80 is 0.16% above stop 36.74 (model 35.47 lower refused). Valuation row degenerate -> no amplify. |
| 0939 | CCB - H SHS | 9.61 | HOLD | 9.61 | 9.45 | 9.62 (+0.1%) | 9.71 (+1.0%) | 9.62 (+0.1%) | Holding CCB on its stop: the signal returned to no-trade, so the add re-entry condition was not met. OPS: NO TRADE cv0 (Consensus conflict + low conviction); -> flip-flop. Close 9.61, 1.7% above stop 9.45. hkfin 0939 buy-stop @9.91 queued (L7). |
| 1347 | Hua Hong Semiconductor | 105.70 | HOLD | 105.70 | 105.00 | 109.46 (+3.6%) | 115.35 (+9.1%) | 120.66 (+14.2%) | Holding Hua Hong on its watch line: the sell label persists but at very low conviction, and the stock remains just above the line. OPS: S.SELL-RED cv27 adj 29 below floor. Close 105.70, 0.67% above WATCH 105.00; decisive line 103.38. Model stop 91.06 lower refused. -33.94%. |
| 7709 | XL2CSOPHYNIX | 36.76 | HOLD | 36.76 | 34.40 | 39.30 (+6.9%) | 41.15 (+11.9%) | 38.70 (+5.3%) | Holding the leveraged SK Hynix ETF: no sell signal and it trades above its stop; leveraged products exit only on a confirmed breakdown. OPS: HOLD cv49; close 36.76, 6.9% above stop 34.40. Leveraged-2x rule. Model stop 27.62 refused. -67.91%. |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
221 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.241 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
49 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.