Recommendations
0 to acquire · 0 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| 2888 | Standard Chartered | 223.60 | HOLD | — | 214.98 | 224.66 | 225.63 | 225.81 | Yesterday's queued buy-stop filled at this morning's open ( @ HK) and Standard Chartered promptly faded: it traded through the 52-week breakout level, closed back below it at 223.60, and its signal collapsed from STRONG BUY BreakoutUp_52W cv90 to WATCH FailedBreakdown_Up_20D cv50 in a single session — a failed breakout on day one, leaving the position 2.2% underwater. We are holding rather than cutting, because a deteriorating signal is not an exit signal: the name prints no SELL label, carries no exit warning, and its 12-week view is still constructive (225.81, +1.0% above the close), while the stop at 214.98 sits a comfortable 1.52 ATR below and remains untouched. The bank's fundamental case is unchanged (wealth-pivot strategy targeting US$200bn of new client assets; no fresh news either way), and valuation is blind here on cross-currency reporting. The trade was risk-defined from the outset — the stop, not a discretionary panic exit, is the plan. OPERATIONAL: exit tests all fail — no SELL/REDUCE label, no Exit_Warning, NOT profit-armed (Gain_ATR -0.88, a loss, so the ADR-0012 profit-take path is structurally unavailable), no stop break (223.60 > 214.98), 12wk non-inverted (+0.99%). L2 combo (decisive stop-break AND negative 12wk) fires on NEITHER leg. Overlay standing override (0005/2888 'hold; invalidated on close below recorded stop') endorses the hold. Stop held at 214.98, NOT raised — no profit to protect on a losing position; tightening into a -2.2% drawdown would manufacture the whipsaw exit. Remaining risk from cost = (228.63-214.98) x 1,550 = HK (~6.0% of position, ~1.1% of book). NOTE: the 17:00:19 scan preceded the 17:00:26 executor fill, so the CSV shows Held=N with blank Avg_Cost/Gain_ATR — position math derived by hand from the transaction ledger ( known exactly). CARRIED FLAG: the 07-15/07-16 'Est_1W below entry' low-quality-entry warning has now materialised into a real loss — estimation layer was right, conviction layer was wrong. Exit basis if it matures: decisive close below 214.98, or a 12wk turning negative alongside it. · news |
| 0005 | HSBC Holdings | 156.90 | NO ACTION | 158.26 | 151.00 | 154.40 (-2.4%) | 157.11 (-0.7%) | 159.05 (+0.5%) | HSBC is knocking on a 52-week high again but we are standing down. Conviction has actually fallen — 79 two sessions ago to 63 now — leaving it below our 65 bar, and the model's own one-week estimate (154.40) sits below the 158.26 entry it would have us pay: the model is forecasting the position underwater a week after entry. That is the identical setup that just cost this book 2.2% on Standard Chartered, which filled on a cv90 breakout with the same dead one-week view and failed immediately. With RSI at 70 and the shares extended, the risk/reward does not justify a second attempt at the same mistake. We would rather wait for a genuine pullback than chase a breakout the model itself does not believe in. OPERATIONAL: adj_conv 63 = 63 + val_adj 0 (NA_CCY, valuation blind) + bias 0 (no actionable cell) -> FAILS the 65 floor. Also fails the carried re-arm's 'Est_1W >= entry' leg (154.40 vs 158.26 = -2.4%). Conviction trail -> = textbook whipsaw; anticipate slot never armed (ANTICIPATE was 1 of last 3, needs >=2/3). Est_12W 159.05 (+1.37% vs close 156.90) is the one healthy leg. L1 breakout-family discount applies. RE-ARM: non-extended actionable BUY at cv>=65 WITH Est_1W >= entry AND a non-inverted 12wk. |
| 0388 | HKEX | 391.00 | NO ACTION | — | — | 391.03 | 392.90 | 389.67 | HKEX has dropped off the buy list entirely — the pullback-buy setup that tempted us for two sessions is gone, replaced by a no-trade reading as the underlying indicators fell into conflict, and the shares slipped 5..00. Our patience was vindicated without costing anything: we never bought, because the quality screen failed and the shares were stretched well beyond a sensible entry. The exchange also screens as expensive against its residual-income value. Nothing to do; we will revisit only if quality turns and a real pullback arrives. OPERATIONAL: NO TRADE cv0 ('Consensus conflict + low conviction'); was BUY PullbackBuy_VWAP cv72 (Buy_Rank 2, the L1-favored family) on 07-15/07-16 but hard-blocked by the quality gate (Quality_Pass=False) and extended -2.65 ATR. Those blocks are now moot. OVERVALUED_VS_RI MoS -1.0 -> val_adj -5. RE-ARM: quality-pass turn (Q=True) with cv>=65 AND a non-extended pullback fill near the printed entry (~376-377 last seen). |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
2 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
0.184 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
22 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.