Recommendations
0 to acquire · 0 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2888 | STANCHART | 223.60 | HOLD | — | 214.98 | 224.89 | 226.08 | 225.99 | Hold StanChart - a small (-2.2%) recent breakout fade with no exit leg firing: no SELL signal, conviction recovering, close 223.60 sits 1.55 ATR above the 214.98 stop, 12wk view non-inverted. PROFIT_ARMED is a T12_Progress artifact (Gain_ATR -0.9, target ~= cost) - a profit-take cannot book a loss, so it is suppressed (HF-6/HF-2). Stop unchanged 214.98; no profit yet to protect. |
| — | China Taiping Insurance | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | STRONG BUY breakout (cv75) rejected as a new entry: the quality screen fails (Quality_Pass=False, F-Score/FCF) which hard-blocks new positions, and the model's own forward estimates point down - Est_1W 21.79 below the 22.20 buy-stop (low-quality entry, HF-4) and Est_12W 20.68 below the 21.96 close (inverted 12wk falling-knife shape, HF-3). UNDERVALUED MoS +0.79 cannot rescue a quality-blocked, forward-negative chase. Re-arm only on a pullback with non-inverted forward estimates. |
| — | BOC Hong Kong Holdings | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | BUY (cv65) rejected: after val_adj -1 (OVERVALUED_VS_RI) adjusted conviction 64 is below the 65 floor; the quality screen fails (Q=False) which hard-blocks a new entry; the signal is unstable (BUY->WATCH->BUY over three prints); and Est_1W 47.28 sits below the 47.42 entry (low-quality entry, HF-4). No edge to chase. |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
3 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
0.184 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
22 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.