Recommendations
1 to acquire · 0 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| 3328 | Bank of Communications | 7.59 | BUY — QUEUED @7.19 | 7.19 | 7.02 | 7.57 (+5.3%) | 7.57 (+5.3%) | 7.55 (+5.0%) | China's fifth-largest state bank, trading on about 6x earnings against a 7x peer average, has pulled back into the most reliable buy setup this system tracks - a mean-reversion entry at the volume-weighted average price - while its trend structure stays intact and every moving average from the 20-day to the 200-day remains stacked in order. We are not paying today's HK; the order is a limit 5.3% below market at HK, right on the VWAP line, so it only fills if the shares give back the recent run. If it fills, the model projects HK-7.57 over one to twelve weeks - a 5% gain from our basis - against a stop just 2.4% away, and the bank's interim results fall in late August, safely outside the order's life. The honest caveat: the model's absolute forward view is flat versus today's price, so all of the edge here comes from the discount we insist on paying, and the order may simply never fill. Operational: Buy_Rank 1, L1-favoured PullbackBuy_VWAP family (2nd-ever print in this book), Entry_Distance_ATR -2.45 makes queue-only mandatory. HF-3 satisfied via the queue-at-pullback branch (T12 7.55 is +5.0% above the 7.19 limit though -0.5% vs the 7.59 close); HF-4 passes (Est_1W 7.57 >= entry 7.19). Valuation blind (NA_CCY, val_adj 0, quality gate OFF); scorecard bias 0 (PullbackBuy_VWAP|buy ungraded in this book). Deliberately tighter than the withdrawn 07-27 limit @6.91 which never filled and cost +8.5% in one session (no_chase_queue counterfactual n=4, -1.79% @1wk). Sizing: 26.5% portion x HKequity x 20% buy_pct = HK -> -> (1,000-share board lot, floored) = HK = 5.0% of book; risk if stopped HK = 0.12% of book. Re-arm if withdrawn: actionable BUY at cv >= 65 with Est_12W >= the live Entry_Price. · news |
| 2888 | STANCHART | 236.80 | HOLD | — | 222.07 | 235.43 | 234.40 | 231.24 | Standard Chartered's half-year results on 29 July beat expectations: management lifted 2026 income-growth guidance to the midpoint of its 5-7% range, guided net interest income up, and added a further $1bn share buyback, with Jefferies calling the cost discipline striking and singling out strength in wealth management. Our position is now 3.6% above cost - its first profit since the July entry - and sits 25% above its 200-day average with no sell signal anywhere in the data. We hold through tomorrow's HSBC results, which move this stock by association through the Hong Kong dollar peg, and we keep the stop at HK, which now protects a locked-in gain rather than limiting a loss. The counter-argument is fair and noted: Shore Capital rates the shares a sell on full valuation, arguing the upgraded guidance is already in consensus - which is a reason not to buy more here, not a reason to sell what we own. Operational: PROFIT_ARMED suppressed for a 7th session under HF-2 - the arm comes purely from T12_Progress_Pct 102.4 (= Close 236.80 / Target_12Week 231.24, an inverted-T12 artifact) while Gain_ATR is only 1.09 vs the 3.0 threshold; tick (c) is the same inversion double-counted. Tick (b) DID fire (cv = exactly -20) and is deliberately overridden: HF-2 requires an independent bearish basis (decisive close below stop, or a fresh high-conviction formal SELL) before any profit-take on an inverted-12wk row of this family, and neither exists; the -20 reverts to the 62/54 band this name has held all week (90/62/74/54) in a book where no name printed two consecutive stable actionable reads; optional_trim counterfactual n=31, median +2.53% @1wk / +16.04% @4wk saved. RSI_DIV cleared this session (69.5 -> 68.1). Stop NOT raised: the scan's own 2.0-ATR chandelier prints 221.76, BELOW the recorded 222.07, so the ratchet floor holds at 222.07; cushion +14.73 = 1.96 ATR. ADR-0020 Trail Erosion n/a (default-off for this book; live stop is 0.14% below the 222.07 peak). Catalyst-aware hold: HSBC H1 2026-08-04, direct read-through, band +/-3.5% (1.88 ATR), stance tighten-trail; no pre-trim into a catalyst per CLAUDE.md section 9. Valuation blind (NA_CCY, val_adj 0) and could not originate a sell in any case; G3 forward-view gate would block an amplify. · news |
| 3988 | Bank of China | 5.49 | NO ACTION | 5.22 | 5.09 | 5.47 (+4.8%) | 5.50 (+5.4%) | 5.47 (+4.8%) | Bank of China has pulled back into the same mean-reversion setup we are buying in Bank of Communications, and its forward projections clear our structural tests, but the signal's conviction reads 56 against the 65 minimum we require to commit capital - and its volatility reading is outright bearish. We pass rather than lower the bar, and will revisit if conviction recovers. Operational: 4th consecutive withhold. Fails the 65 floor by 9 points (adj 56 = 56 + val_adj 0 NA_CCY + bias 0). HF-3 passes (Est_12W 5.47 > entry 5.22, +4.8%) and HF-4 passes (Est_1W 5.47 >= entry 5.22); L1-favoured family. Blocking legs: Volatility pillar Bearish (25), Momentum 26. ANTICIPATE slot NOT eligible - requires BUY - ANTICIPATE in >=2 of the last 3 snapshots and the trail is BUY (07-30) / NO TRADE (07-31) / BUY (08-03), zero ANTICIPATE prints. No events in the 10-day horizon window. Re-arm: actionable BUY at cv >= 65 with Est_12W >= entry AND the Volatility pillar no longer Bearish. Logged for counterfactual grading. · news |
| 0005 | HSBC HDGS(USD0.50) HK O'SEAS | 168.20 | NO ACTION | 169.29 | 160.39 | 167.26 (-1.2%) | 166.67 (-1.5%) | 169.60 (+0.2%) | HSBC sits at a 52-week high with momentum readings in genuinely overbought territory, and it reports half-year results tomorrow morning alongside a dividend decision - a coin-flip event worth roughly 3.5% in either direction. Buying the day before, at the top of the range, is not an edge. We stand aside and will reconsider once the results are on the tape and the shares have settled. Operational: WATCH cv47, fails the 65 floor. Notably the conviction collapsed -43 points in three sessions (STRONG BUY cv90 on 07-31 -> WATCH cv47 today) at an IDENTICAL 168.20 close - which fully vindicates the 07-31 no-chase rejection and is itself evidence for the pillar-instability systemic finding. RSI 80.1 (deeply extended); Entry_Distance_ATR +0.37; MomentumContinuation_Up is this book's worst-graded buy family (0/3, stop-first 1.0). Horizon: HSBC H1 results + second interim dividend 2026-08-04, band +/-3.5%, high confidence; ex-dividend 2026-08-13. Valuation NA_CCY (val_adj 0, gate off). Re-arm: post-results settled close printing an actionable BUY at cv >= 65 with RSI < 72 and a non-inverted 12wk. Logged for counterfactual grading. · news |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
3 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
0.184 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
50 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.