HK Financials — End-of-Day Verdict
NO ACTION (0 ACQUIRE x 0 DISPOSE) + 3328 queue withdrawn
Recommendations
0 to acquire · 0 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2888 | STANCHART | 235.00 | HOLD | — | 222.07 | 234.76 | 235.83 | 229.66 | We are holding all of Standard Chartered on a stop of HK. The single event we were waiting for - HSBC's half-year results, which move StanChart by association - landed today and came in solid, not soft: net interest income rose to 2bn from 8bn and a second interim dividend was declared. The shares nonetheless drifted 0.8% lower to HK, which is a sell-the-news reaction rather than bad news, and the position remains 2.8% above our cost. StanChart's own late-July results raised guidance and added a $1bn buyback, and the stock still sits 24% above its long-term trend line, so there is no exit case here - only a warning to watch. Operational: the engine printed NO TRADE (Conflicted consensus - Trend 70 bullish vs Momentum pillar now outright Bearish at 15, down from 32). PROFIT_ARMED fired for an 8th session and is again SUPPRESSED under HF-2 as a T12-inversion artifact (Gain_ATR 0.94, nowhere near the 3.0 arm threshold; T12_Progress 102.33 is merely 235.00/229.66 with Target_12Week inverted -2.3% vs close), so the position is NOT armed and the ADR-0012 fire rule does not apply. Tick (b) fired arithmetically for a 2nd consecutive session -> 0) and is logged as overridden: cv0 here is a NoTrade consensus artifact, not a bearish read, and HF-2 requires an independent bearish basis (decisive close < stop, or a fresh high-conviction formal SELL) - neither exists. Tick (c) is the same inversion double-counted. Tick (d) needs 2 consecutive NO TRADE prints; today is the FIRST. ESCALATION SET: a 2nd consecutive NO TRADE on 08-05 fires CLAUDE.md section 9's 'N consecutive NoTrade/Conflicted on a held position' exit case in its own right - independent of ADR-0012 arming - and becomes a live 30% trim candidate. Legitimate exit tests all fail today: no SELL label, no non-PROFIT_ARMED Exit_Warning, no stop break (235.00 vs 222.07 = +5.8%, 1.91 ATR cushion), close 24.4% above EMA200 188.93, L2's stop-break-AND-negative-12wk fires on only one leg. Stop held at 222.07, NOT raised - the 2.0-ATR chandelier prints 221.45, below the ratchet floor. ADR-0020 not applicable (default off; live trail 0.28% below peak stop). optional_trim counterfactual n=33, median +2.44% @1wk / +11.56% @4wk saved. · news |
| 2388 | BOC Hong Kong Holdings | 50.90 | NO ACTION | 48.60 | 47.42 | 50.75 (+4.4%) | 51.02 (+5.0%) | 51.01 (+5.0%) | BOC Hong Kong was the highest-ranked buy candidate in the book today, but we passed. Two independent things stop it: our conviction score of 59 sits below the 65 minimum we require to commit capital, and our valuation work scores the shares as expensive relative to what the bank's book value and returns justify, with the underlying quality screen failing outright. Buying an over-priced bank that our own model only half-believes in is not a trade, so the cash stays where it is. Operational: first actionable print in 4 sessions (3x NO TRADE -> BUY cv60, Buy_Rank 1, close 50.90, Buy Limit 48.60, ED -2.01, RSI 64.8). Adjusted 60 + val_adj -1 + bias 0 = 59, fails the floor by 6. HARD QUALITY GATE also blocks it independently (Quality_Pass FALSE, OVERVALUED_VS_RI, MoS -0.269) - a new entry is barred irrespective of signal. Structural gates would otherwise pass (HF-3: Est_12W 51.01 > entry 48.60 by +5.0% and non-inverted vs the 50.90 close; HF-4: Est_1W 50.75 >= entry 48.60). L1's favoured family. Counterfactual so the grader prices the withhold. Re-arm: Quality_Pass TRUE (or the name becomes held) PLUS a stable BUY at cv >= 65 with a non-inverted 12wk. · news |
| 3988 | Bank of China | 5.34 | NO ACTION | 5.25 | 5.10 | 5.30 (+1.0%) | 5.38 (+2.5%) | 5.29 (+0.8%) | Bank of China fell 2.7% today and now sits close to where we would want to buy it, but our conviction score of 60 is still short of the 65 we insist on before putting money to work, and this is the fifth session running that it has come close without clearing the bar. The three-month outlook has also thinned out to almost nothing above our buy price, so the reward for stretching is small. We keep waiting rather than lowering the standard. Operational: PullbackBuy_VWAP BUY cv60, Buy_Rank 3, close 5.335, Buy Limit 5.25, ED -0.62, RSI 53.7. Adjusted 60 = 60 + val_adj 0 (NA_CCY) + bias 0; fails the floor by 5. HF-3 marginal: Est_12W 5.29 is inverted -0.8% vs the 5.335 close (only +0.8% vs the 5.25 entry, down from +4.8% on 08-03). HF-4 passes (Est_1W 5.30 >= entry 5.25). Momentum pillar 26, Volatility 30, regime now Transitional. 5th consecutive withhold. Counterfactual so the grader prices the withhold. Re-arm: actionable BUY at cv >= 65 with Est_12W non-inverted vs the CLOSE. · news |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
3 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
0.184 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
50 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.