Recommendations
1 to acquire · 0 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| 1299 | AIA Group | 77.00 | BUY — QUEUED @76.73 | 76.73 | 75.75 | 76.73 (+0.0%) | 77.55 (+1.1%) | 81.28 (+5.9%) | AIA has turned bullish for the first time in weeks, reclaiming HKwith the healthiest twelve-week outlook in the book (about +6%), and we are buying it on a limit at the model's one-week level rather than chasing the close. The insurer passes the quality screen, and with no stock-specific news the move reads as a clean trend turn, but the one-week view sits just under today's close, so this is a half-size pullback order. OPERATIONAL: signal FailedBreakdown_Up_20D [BUY] cv72, Buy_Rank 1, 26.5, fresh after 11+ NO TRADE sessions, RSI 57.2, Entry_Distance_ATR 0.00, entry band 76.60-77.40. HF-4 fires small (Est_1W 76.73 < Entry 77.00, -0.35% / 0.17 ATR) -> HF-P35/HF-P67 demote: GTC limit AT Est_1W (inside the provenance band), 0.5x size. HF-3 passes (Est_12W 81.28 = +5.56% vs close). Valuation NA_CCY -> val_adj 0; Quality_Pass True (F5). Scorecard FailedBreakdown_Up_20D|buy +4 NOT applied (HF-P63 phantom contamination). Volume: 26.5% x HKx 20% = HKx 0.5 = HK / 76.73 = 703.5 -> board lot 200 ->, HK (3.0% of book). Stop 75.75 (model, = day low), 0.61 ATR below the limit. FOMC+HKMA resolve 02:00 HKT 09-17 before any possible fill; L8: re-adjudicate if the 09-17 open gaps >1.5% from 77.00. Withdraw if conviction <65 at any EOD before expiry 2026-09-21. Stale overlay override on 1299 (reclaims 76) is invalidated by the 77.00 close. · news |
| 3328 | Bank of Communications | 8.13 | ADD WITHHELD | 8.18 | 7.85 | 8.07 (-1.3%) | 8.23 (+0.6%) | 8.18 (+0.0%) | Bank of Communications flashed a fresh add signal, but we are not buying it back yet: the trigger sits above today's close at the very level we sold at yesterday, and the model's own one-week view points lower. We will add only if the signal holds for a second session after the Fed. OPERATIONAL: signal MomentumContinuation_Up [BUY - ADD] cv71 (trail ->, HF-P55 single-session flip), buy-stop Entry 8.18 vs close 8.125 (Entry_Distance_ATR +0.34). HF-4 LARGE: Est_1W 8.07 is -1.34% vs entry and outside the provenance band (8.14-8.22, whose floor is above the close) -> no pullback limit exists -> WATCH re-arm (HF-P35). HF-P64: 8.18 would re-buy the 09-15 8.16 sell. Would-be size 43.88% x = lot. RE-ARM (HF-P12): a second consecutive BUY - ADD / STRONG BUY - ADD settled-close print after 09-17 with Est_1W_Point >= Entry_Price x 0.9975 -> queue at the printed entry. · news |
| 3328 | Bank of Communications | 8.13 | HOLD 1,500 | 8.13 | 7.85 | 8.07 (-0.7%) | 8.23 (+1.3%) | 8.18 (+0.7%) | The Bank of Communications shares are held, and the stop is raised to HKto lock in more of the gain now that the trend has re-strengthened. OPERATIONAL: PROFIT_ARMED via T12_Progress 99.33 on a non-inverted 12wk (8.18 > 8.125), Gain_ATR 2.43, +5.14% unrealised. No fire tick: (b) conviction +25, (c) not counted (12wk above close), no other code, no NO TRADE pair -> mandatory trail-raise. Stop 7.77 -> 7.85 (tonight's model stop; chandelier 7.80), cushion 1.69 ATR. · news |
| 2888 | STANCHART | 244.00 | HOLD 600 | 244.00 | 236.73 | 241.33 (-1.1%) | 241.64 (-1.0%) | 236.73 (-3.0%) | Standard Chartered bounced 2.5% and held well above its stop into the Fed, so the conditional trim we set yesterday did not trigger and the position is held. The model still sees the shares drifting lower over the coming weeks, so the stop stays tight. OPERATIONAL: pre-commit (close < 236.73 -> SELL 200) NOT triggered, close 244.00; the 09-15 deferred tick (b) resolved in favour of holding (conviction. PROFIT_ARMED is the T12-inversion artifact (12wk 236.73 inverted 1.25 ATR, Gain_ATR 2.65) -> suppressed (HF-2/HF-P50). Stop HELD 236.73 (model 232.39 lower), cushion 1.25 ATR. Pre-commit carried: settled close < 236.73 with 12wk negative -> SELL market (L2/HF-P30). · news |
| 0939 | CCB - H SHS | 9.64 | HOLD 2,000 | 9.63 | 9.46 | 9.66 (+0.3%) | 9.74 (+1.1%) | 9.61 (-0.3%) | China Construction Bank recovered into the close and its conviction firmed, so the position is held on its existing stop. OPERATIONAL: pre-commit (close < 9.46 -> SELL) NOT triggered, close 9.635. PROFIT_ARMED suppressed (T12 100.26 on a 12wk inverted 0.12 ATR, Gain_ATR 2.00; HF-2/HF-P50); conviction, no tick. Stop HELD 9.46 (model 9.21), cushion 0.81 ATR. Pre-commit carried: close < 9.46 -> SELL market. · news |
| 3968 | China Merchants Bank | 51.35 | HOLD 1,500 | 51.35 | 50.88 | 51.17 (-0.4%) | 51.08 (-0.5%) | 50.37 (-1.9%) | China Merchants Bank stayed just above its stop, so the position is held with a pre-set sell if it closes below HK. The model's outlook is mildly negative, which is why the risk line is kept close. OPERATIONAL: pre-commit NOT triggered (close 51.35, cushion 0.41 ATR). PROFIT_ARMED suppressed (12wk 50.37 inverted 0.86 ATR, Gain_ATR 2.38); conviction, no tick. Stop HELD 50.88 (model 49.08). Pre-commit carried: settled close < 50.88 with 12wk negative -> SELL market (L2/HF-P30). · news |
| 3988 | Bank of China | 5.98 | HOLD 4,000 | 5.98 | 5.83 | 6.03 (+0.8%) | 6.01 (+0.5%) | 5.97 (-0.2%) | Bank of China is the book's best-performing holding (about +10%) and nothing has weakened, so we keep riding it with the profit-protecting stop in place. OPERATIONAL: genuine PROFIT_ARMED (Gain_ATR 4.29), no fire tick (no other code; conviction; tick (c) inversion 0.08 ATR below materiality; no NO TRADE pair) -> trail. Stop HELD 5.83 (model 5.73, chandelier 5.75 both lower), cushion 1.19 ATR. · news |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
50 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
5.000 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
89 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.