Recommendations
2 to acquire · 0 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2318 | Ping An Insurance | 52.85 | BUY — QUEUED @52.99 | 52.99 | 51.84 | 53.07 (+0.2%) | 51.95 (-2.0%) | 52.88 (-0.2%) | Ping An has sold off about 7.5% in two weeks to its lower volatility band with no bad news, and the model now rates it a top-ranked mean-reversion buy with a tight stop. Its quality screen passes, so we open a half-size position on a limit at the model entry. OPERATIONAL: STRONG BUY cv85 Buy_Rank 1, single print reversing AVOID 60/33/33 -> HF-P55 lower tier x0.5. HF-4 pass (Est_1W 53.07 >= entry); HF-3 pass (Est_12W 52.88 vs close 52.85) but forward view flat (4wk -1.96%) -> payoff rests on Target 55.17 vs stop 51.84 (R:R 1.9). 90.4% x 2,037,751 x 20% = 368,425 x0.5 = 184,213 / 52.99 = (lot) = HKWithdraw if <65 or AVOID before 09-22; 2nd consecutive STRONG BUY -> supersede to full size at the live entry (HF-P54). L8: re-adjudicate if the 09-18 open gaps >1.5% from 52.85. · news |
| 1299 | AIA Group | 77.35 | ADD — QUEUED @77.35 | 77.35 | 75.75 | 77.31 (-0.1%) | 78.57 (+1.6%) | 82.27 (+6.4%) | AIA printed a second straight buy signal after today's half-size purchase filled at 76.10, and the model's one-week view now agrees with the entry, so we complete the position to its target size. It has the strongest 12-week outlook in the book (+6%). OPERATIONAL: BUY cv68, 2nd print retires the 09-16 HF-4 half-size discount (Est_1W 77.31 vs 77.35 = -0.05%, de-minimis). Scan wrote Held=N (executor race) so sized by hand: target 26.5% x 2,037,751 x 20% = 108,001 less held 61,880 = 46,121 / 77.35 = (lot 200). Stop held 75.75 (model 75.60). MoS_FV NA_CCY non-authoritative. Conviction eased 4 and close sits under EMA200 77.64 -> completion, not a pyramid. HF-P34 same-family exposure carried. Withdraw if <65 before 09-22; L8 reprice on a >1.5% gap. · news |
| 3328 | Bank of Communications | 8.18 | NO ACTION | 8.18 | 7.97 | 8.14 (-0.5%) | 8.28 (+1.2%) | 8.23 (+0.6%) | BoCom is near its 12-week target and shows an RSI divergence, which calls for a small profit-take, but 30% of the holding is below one board lot, so we raise the stop instead and record the odd-lot trim only as a what-if. OPERATIONAL: PROFIT_ARMED (T12 99.39, 12wk 8.23 > close, arm stands) + tick (a) RSI_DIV fired -> profit_take_1 30% = 450 vs lot 1,000 -> rounds to 0 (HF-P25, no risk leg). Counterfactual-only card (not executed) so the grader prices the odd-lot trim (HF-P65). · news |
| 3328 | Bank of Communications | 8.18 | HOLD 1,500 | 8.18 | 7.97 | 8.14 (-0.5%) | 8.28 (+1.2%) | 8.23 (+0.6%) | BoCom has reached its model target zone with an early warning sign, so we tighten its stop to today's low to protect the gain rather than sell a sub-lot sliver. OPERATIONAL: armed + RSI_DIV fired but lot-suppressed -> mandatory trail-raise 7.85 -> 7.97 (cushion 1.22 ATR). Conviction (-15, <20). Re-arm pre-commit RESET (ADD print did not repeat). Next tick -> 50% = 750 -> SELL market. · news |
| 2888 | STANCHART | 243.40 | HOLD 600 | 243.40 | 236.73 | 241.31 (-0.9%) | 240.76 (-1.1%) | 237.36 (-2.5%) | Standard Chartered is holding its gains well above the stop, so the position stays on with a pre-set partial sale if it closes below HK. OPERATIONAL: PROFIT_ARMED suppressed (12wk 237.36 inverted 1.04 ATR, Gain_ATR 2.55); conviction (-15, <20). Stop HELD 236.73 (model 231.80), cushion 1.15 ATR. Pre-commit carried: settled close < 236.73 with 12wk negative -> SELL market (L2/HF-P30). · news |
| 3968 | China Merchants Bank | 51.30 | HOLD 1,500 | 51.30 | 50.88 | 51.08 (-0.4%) | 50.95 (-0.7%) | 50.39 (-1.8%) | China Merchants Bank dipped below its stop during the day but closed above it, so it is held, with a pre-set partial sale if a close breaks HK. OPERATIONAL: settled close 51.30 (low 50.50) -> L4, not triggered; cushion 0.39 ATR. PROFIT_ARMED suppressed (12wk 50.39 inverted 0.84 ATR). Conviction. Pre-commit carried: settled close < 50.88 with 12wk negative -> SELL market. · news |
| 0939 | CCB - H SHS | 9.68 | HOLD 2,000 | 9.68 | 9.46 | 9.69 (+0.2%) | 9.75 (+0.8%) | 9.65 (-0.3%) | CCB is steady and about 5% in profit with no sell signal, so we keep holding with the stop unchanged. OPERATIONAL: PROFIT_ARMED suppressed (12wk 9.65 inverted 0.12 ATR, Gain_ATR 2.22); conviction. Stop HELD 9.46 (model 9.25), cushion 1.01 ATR. Pre-commit carried: close < 9.46 -> SELL market. · news |
| 3988 | Bank of China | 5.99 | HOLD 4,000 | 5.99 | 5.83 | 6.02 (+0.5%) | 6.05 (+1.0%) | 5.98 (-0.2%) | Bank of China remains the book's best holding (about +10%) and nothing has weakened, so we keep riding it behind the profit-protecting stop. OPERATIONAL: genuine PROFIT_ARMED (Gain_ATR 4.27), no fire tick (conviction; tick (c) 0.08 ATR below materiality) -> trail. Stop HELD 5.83 (chandelier 5.75, model 5.73), cushion 1.24 ATR. · news |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
50 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
5.000 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
89 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.