Recommendations
1 to acquire · 0 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0992 | Lenovo Group | 24.48 | BUY — QUEUED @23.47 | 23.47 | 21.26 | 24.08 (+2.6%) | 25.49 (+8.6%) | 34.88 (+48.6%) | Lenovo held a stable STRONG BUY (cv79, Buy_Rank #1) for a second straight session on the L1-favored PullbackBuy_VWAP cell -- a below-close pullback entry (23.47 vs 24.48 close, EDist -0.57), not a chase -- with news confirming (Zacks Rank #1, +137% YTD, enterprise PC refresh + AI-device/infra tailwind). The 07-09 GTC @23.35 did not fill (price rose away); repriced to the live model entry 23.47 per the provenance/queue-expiry rule, expiry reset to 2026-07-15 (anchor +3 sessions). = HK = ~14% of the 2M book; 86% cash retained into the 07-14 CPI print. GTC limit fills only on a ~-4.1% dip (self-limiting into the event); reprice/re-validate if the 07-13 open gaps >~1.5% (L8). Valuation NA_CCY (val_adj 0, quality gate off); f=0.30 (L5, calib_1w -0.45). Stop 21.26 (-9.4%). T12 34.88 exceeds Est_High 26.50 -- no DCF anchor. · news |
| 0981 | SMIC | 79.65 | NO ACTION | 81.52 | 71.97 | 84.15 (+3.2%) | 90.27 (+10.7%) | 90.30 (+10.8%) | SMIC strengthened on the L1 PullbackBuy_VWAP cell (BUY cv56->64, 2 rising prints, Buy_Rank #2) but fell 1 pt short of the 65 floor AND is extended -- the buy-limit 81.52 sits +2.3% above the 79.65 close (EDist +0.24, must rally to trigger), into the 07-16 TSMC Q2 read-through (Event Horizon: add-after-print). Withheld as sub-floor + extended into a semis catalyst; ledgered direction=none/optional so the counterfactual grader prices what skipping the near-miss cost. f=0.30 (L5). |
| PORTFOLIO | hktech book | — | 1 ACQUIRE / 0 DISPOSE | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | Carries the 07-09 verdict: 0992 Lenovo held a stable STRONG BUY cv79 for a second session; the unfilled GTC @23.35 is repriced to the live entry 23.47 (, HK, ~14% of book), expiry reset to 2026-07-15. 0981 SMIC climbed to cv64 but stayed 1 below floor + extended into TSMC 07-16. 2513 collapsed to WATCH cv45 (placement-overhang demote validated). 0 DISPOSE (zero holdings, empty sell pool). HKdry, 86% retained into 07-14 CPI. Valuation technical-only (NA_CCY). |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
1 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.450 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
22 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.