Recommendations
0 to acquire · 0 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0981 | SMIC | 78.35 | NO ACTION | 81.75 | 72.08 | 84.41 (+3.3%) | 90.62 (+10.9%) | 87.63 (+7.2%) | SMIC on the L1 PullbackBuy_VWAP cell but reversed BUY cv64 -> cv55, now 10 pts below the 65 floor AND more extended -- buy-stop 81.75 sits +4.3% above the 78.35 close (EDist +0.44, up from +0.24), price fading 79..35 into the 07-16 TSMC Q2 read-through. 12wk 87.63 is below Target_Price 90.62 (inverted forward view). Withheld sub-floor + extended into the semis catalyst; ledgered direction=none/optional so the counterfactual grader prices what skipping cost. f=0.30 (L5). |
| — | hktech book | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | NO ACTION -- 0 ACQUIRE / 0 DISPOSE. The sole floor-clearing name (0992 Lenovo, the carried queue) broke down to WATCH cv61 and its GTC @23.47 is withdrawn; no new name replaced it (0981 SMIC cv55 sub-floor + extended, rest AVOID/WATCH falling knives). Sell pool empty (zero holdings). HKdry fully retained (100% cash) into the 07-14 June CPI print, honoring the overlay de-risk-into-CPI bias. Valuation technical-only (NA_CCY). |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
1 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.450 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
22 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.