Recommendations
0 to acquire · 0 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| 0992 | Lenovo Group Limited | 30.60 | HOLD | — | 29.68 | n/a | 33.41 | 43.61 | Lenovo remains the book's only position and the only thing working - up 11.3% on cost, trading above every moving average we track, and backed by a record quarter: revenue of 5bn, up 14.6% year on year, adjusted profit up 25%, and AI-related lines now 30% of the group. The forward view is the strongest in the book, with the twelve-week projection 42% above today's price. There is no sell label and no exit warning, so we hold and leave the risk line where it is. OPERATIONAL: conviction firmed. NOT profit-armed - Gain_ATR 2.21 and T12_Progress 70.2% are both below the ADR-0012 arm thresholds (3.0 ATR / 90%), so no trail-raise is mandated and no trim is available from the profit-take path. Stop HELD at 29.68: the live model Stop_Price prints 29.56, which is LOWER than the carried watermark, and a recorded stop is never walked down. Risk from the 30.60 close is HKon a HKposition. · news |
| 1810 | XIAOMI CORP-W | 28.06 | NO ACTION | 28.06 | 27.08 | n/a | 30.06 (+7.1%) | 27.79 (-1.0%) | Xiaomi is the highest-ranked buy candidate in the book today and we are still not buying it. The near-term setup is genuinely decent - a bounce off the 20-day low with roughly two units of reward for each unit of risk - but the model's own three-month projection of 27.79 sits BELOW the 28.06 price we would pay, and the shares remain under both their 100-day and 200-day trend lines, some 15% beneath the latter. That combination is this book's textbook description of a bounce inside a downtrend, not a trend to buy; the shares are also priced above what the cash flows support. We would rather hold the cash. OPERATIONAL: adj 68 (69 raw, val_adj -1 at MoS_FV -0.191, scorecard bias 0) CLEARS the 65 floor but is REJECTED on learnings HT-4 - forward-view screen first, and Target_12Week 27.79 < Close 28.06 fails it; reinforced by note B / HT-5 (negative-12wk HK buy pool = falling knives, validated by tape) and L1 (FailedBreakdown_Up_20D is an L1-discounted chase; local cell n=3, hit_4w 0.00, report-only). Quality_Pass=True so the hard gate did not fire - this is a forward-view rejection, not a quality block. Foregone HK (Portion 28.39% x 2,031,020 x 0.20 buy_pct). Re-arm trigger: a reclaim of EMA100 (28.76) with Target_12Week turning positive versus the entry. Horizon: the 09-10 Apple keynote touches this name. Ledgered optional/direction:none so the counterfactual grader prices the withhold. · news |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
12 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
0.129 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
50 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.