Recommendations
0 to acquire · 0 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| 0992 | Lenovo Group Limited | 30.54 | HOLD | 30.54 | 30.09 | n/a | 33.56 (+9.9%) | 43.52 (+42.5%) | Hold Lenovo. The position is up 11% on a record quarter - revenue 5bn (+14.6% y/y), adjusted net income (+25%), AI lines now 30% of group revenue - and the shares still trade at a 43% discount to the 12-week view (43.52) with the best quality rank in the book (F-Score 7, rank). There is no sell label, no exit warning, and valuation is merely FAIR_VALUE, which never originates a sell. Not profit-armed: Gain_ATR 2.01 (< 3.0) and T12_Progress 70.2% (< 90%), so ADR-0012 mandates neither a trim nor a trail-raise. Operational: stop watermark RAISED 29.68 -> 30.09 to the live model stop (never walked down). Caveat - 30.09 is only 0.30x ATR below the 30.54 close, inside daily noise; the monitor is close-based, so treat it as requiring a DECISIVE CLOSE below 30.09, not an intraday touch. Peak Stop = 30.09, no size cut since; ADR-0020 Trail Erosion not triggered. Horizon watch: 2026-09-07 China August trade balance. · news |
| 6869 | YOFC | 164.00 | WATCH | 150.61 | 132.68 | n/a | 167.05 (+10.9%) | 161.07 (+6.9%) | Passing on YOFC despite the day's only buy signal. The optical-fibre maker prints a BUY at conviction 65 - exactly the minimum bar - but the shares change hands at roughly 12.5x our estimate of intrinsic value, the business fails the quality screen outright (F-Score 6, no computable free cash flow, quality rank), and the model's own 12-week view of 161 sits BELOW today's 164 close. A signal that needs an 8% pullback to trigger, on a company that does not pass the quality bar, is not an entry. Freshly refetched valuation confirms the block rather than lifting it. Detail: (1) Quality_Pass=False is a HARD gate on new entries; (2) MoS_FV -11.55 -> val_adj -10, so adjusted conviction 55 < 65 floor; (3) HT-4 forward-view screen fails (T12 161.07 < close 164.00); (4) HT-3 R:R artifact reproduced exactly - entry 150.61 / stop 132.68 / target 167.05 = R:R 0.92, the same config-silenced pullback ratio measured on five names on 07-17. Single print at the floor, not two consecutive. Third consecutive quality-gate withhold (08-25, 08-31, 09-03). RE-ARM: Quality_Pass turning True on a future refetch, OR Target_12Week clearing the close with an R:R >= 1.5 stop pairing. Price appreciation alone will not re-arm it. · news |
| 1810 | XIAOMI CORP-W | 27.44 | WATCH | — | — | n/a | n/a | 26.91 | Yesterday's decision to pass on Xiaomi is confirmed by the tape. The stock was rejected on 09-02 because its own 12-week forecast sat below the entry price while the shares traded under their 100- and 200-day averages; today the buy signal has vanished entirely (NO TRADE, conviction 0, 'consensus conflict + low conviction') and the price is 2.2% lower at 27.44. No action, no re-entry case. Operational: retrospective validation of the HT-4 forward-view screen; same one-session collapse pattern as 0772 (09-01 -> 09-02) and 2382 (09-02 -> 09-03). Withhold saved 2.2%. |
| — | AI - HK Tech | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | No trades today. The book holds one position (Lenovo, +11%) and 85% cash. Exactly one stock in the universe generated a buy signal and it failed the quality screen, so the cash stays where it is - the constraint is the quality of what is on offer, not the willingness to. Two previous passes (Xiaomi, Sunny Optical) both fell further today, so the discipline is currently paying. Operational: 0 ACQUIRE + 0 DISPOSE + 0 ANTICIPATE; one stop raise (0992 29.68 -> 30.09). Valuation CSV REGENERATED fresh this run (was 8 days stale) because the sole candidate turned on it; refresh confirmed the block. calib_1w flipped +0.129 -> -0.346 on an unchanged 12-graded sample, so f reverts to the L5-mandated 0.30. BLOCKING: Auto-Executor 17 trading days stale (last run 2026-08-11). |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
12 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.346 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
50 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.