Recommendations
0 to acquire · 1 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| 0992 | Lenovo Group Limited | 34.54 | SELL 30% | 34.54 | 34.14 | 34.99 (+1.3%) | 36.05 (+4.4%) | 49.22 (+42.5%) | We re-issue yesterday's 30% profit-take on Lenovo, which the executor silently dropped because of a malformed order type; the position is up ~19% and sits just 0.23 ATR above its stop into an event-dense 2 Oct reopen with Southbound dark. Profit-take decided 09-29: PROFIT_ARMED (Gain_ATR 3.17 today) + tick (d) 2 consecutive NO TRADE (09-28, 09-29). Today's HOLD/54 PullbackBuy_VWAP resets the NT streak for future firing but does not un-decide a fired trim (assumption: infrastructure non-fill -> honour the decision, 08-05 re-issue precedent, L3/HT-14). (odd lot; board lot; paper executor fills) at the 10-02 open, ref close 34.54, reprice if the open gaps >1.5%. Banks ~HK (+18.7% on cost 29.0925). Remaining 1,400 on stop 34.14 (ratchet; chandelier 34.44 / close-1.5ATR 31.96 -> min 31.96 < 34.14, stop holds). execution value validated against executor vocabulary on re-read (HT-54b). · news |
| — | CATL | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | CATL printed its first BUY in weeks, but it is a single-print oversold bounce whose own 12-week projection sits 43% below the price, so we stay out. BUY/65 fresh from AVOID/52; val_adj -3 (MoS -0.60) -> adj 62 < 65 floor; T12 275.99 vs close 484.20 (-43%, saturated clamp, HT-4/HT-27); single print (HT-7 stability); falling-knife family per the HK valuation-blind note. Ledgered optional so the counterfactual grader prices the pass. |
| PORTFOLIO | hktech | — | WATCH | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | The only action is re-issuing Lenovo's 30% trim, which yesterday's executor dropped on a malformed order field; CATL's lone BUY print fell short of the floor on a negative 12-week view. 0 ACQUIRE / 1 DISPOSE / 0 ANTICIPATE. Book HK (+6.01% vs seed). Cash HK -> ~HKpost-fill. |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
4 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
2.122 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
89 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.