Sector ETFs — End-of-Day Verdict
FLAT gauge book — no trims/adds; sentiment = risk-on but rotating (megacaps down, small-caps/semis/defensives up); top new = SOXX. US dry.
Recommendations
2 to acquire · 0 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOXX | iShares Semiconductor ETF | — | BUY | 625.20 | 598.94 | 639.90 (+2.4%) | 697.27 (+11.5%) | 890.91 (+42.5%) | top new; semis leadership; clean entry; gauge book — only if intended |
| IWM | iShares Russell 2000 ETF | — | BUY | 300.24 | 283.61 | 307.03 (+2.3%) | 333.52 (+11.1%) | 331.09 (+10.3%) | highest conviction but BUY-ANTICIPATE = queue-only; small-cap breadth; fills on break >300.24 |
| SENTIMENT | Rotation read | — | GAUGE | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | risk-on but rotating: MAGS AVOID cv79 (megacaps down) vs IWM cv98/SOXX cv76 (small-caps+semis lead); confirms us megacap-trim -> semi-add |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
11 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
0.204 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
21 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.