Sector ETFs — End-of-Day Verdict
FLAT gauge book — no trims/adds. Rotation turned DEFENSIVE: megacaps/big-tech cool (MAGS AVOID, QQQ NO TRADE, XLK/DIA WATCH), defensives lead (XLP/XLV STRONG BUY), semis cooled (SOXX/SMH BUY cv61), small-caps lead (IWM cv98). Top = IWM QUEUED @302.03. US dry.
Recommendations
1 to acquire · 0 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IWM | iShares Russell 2000 ETF | 299.32 | QUEUED NEW | 302.03 | 286.13 | 308.52 (+2.1%) | 333.83 (+10.5%) | 333.33 (+10.4%) | gauge book; small-cap breadth leader cv98, QUEUED buy-stop on VCP breakout @302.03 (extended eD 0.42, don't chase); only if intended |
| _PORTFOLIO | sectoretf | — | FLAT / ROTATION READ | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | gauge read: rotation turned defensive — MAGS AVOID + QQQ NO TRADE + XLK/DIA WATCH (megacaps/big-tech cool), XLP/XLV STRONG BUY (defensives lead), SOXX/SMH cooled to BUY cv61, IWM cv98 small-caps lead; confirms us megacap de-risk, cautions semi-adds |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
11 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
0.204 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
21 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.